Where do Arian Smith's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Arian Smith's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Arian Smith's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Arian Smith's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · New York Jets#82

Arian Smith

Arian Smith (WR, NYJ) props for Week 8 vs Las Vegas Raiders: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8IR

Line: —; Receiving Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 0 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 3:00 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

New York Jets is missing one tight end, which frees targets. Across from him, Las Vegas has nobody out who usually covers receivers.

SmithIR

Around himNew York Jets

1 of 30 touch Smith

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRConnor HulsteinTEFrees targets

Across from himLas Vegas Raiders

1 of 22 touch Smith

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRChigozie AnusiemDBDeep coverage

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3022Show

NYJ · New York Jets

30 listed

Joseph OssaiDE · ankleOut
Max MitchellOTOut last week
T'Vondre SweatDT · kneeOut
David BaileyLB · groinDoubtful
Breece HallRB · quadricepQuestionable
Anez CooperG · Not specifiedIR
Braiden McGregorDE · Not specifiedIR
Chip TrayanumRB · Not specifiedIR
Connor HulsteinTE · Not specifiedIR
David OnyemataDT · Not specifiedIR
Dominic RichardsonRB · Not specifiedIR
Francisco MauigoaLB · quadricepIR
Kingsley JonathanDE · Not specifiedIR
Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Not specifiedIR
Mykal WalkerLB · Not specifiedIR
Tre BrownCB · Not specifiedIR
Tyler BaronDE · Not specifiedPUP
VJ PayneSAF · Not specifiedIR
Adonai MitchellWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (finger)—
D'Angelo PondsCB · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (calf)—
Dane BeltonSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Dylan ParhamG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Kene NwangwuRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Kenyon SadiqTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (concussion)—
Kingsley EnagbareLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Mason TaylorTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (thumb)—
Minkah FitzpatrickFS · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
Omar Cooper Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tim PatrickWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin)—
Will McDonald IVDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (calf)—

LV · Las Vegas Raiders

22 listed

Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROut last week
Patrick JohnsonDE · neckOut
Brennan JacksonLB · Not specifiedIR
Carter RunyonTE · footIR
Chase RobertsWR · Not specifiedIR
Chigozie AnusiemDB · Not specifiedIR
Chris CollierRB · Not specifiedIR
Jack BechWR · forearmIR
Justin PickettG · Not specifiedIR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Not specifiedIR
Aidan O'ConnellQB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Ashton JeantyRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle, foot)—
Brock BowersTE · Last listed Wk 3: Q (knee)—
Darien PorterCB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (foot)—
Jackson Powers-JohnsonC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin)—
Jalen NailorWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
Kwity PayeDE · Last listed Wk 3: Q (illness)—
Mike Washington Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (foot, back)Cleared
Quay WalkerLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
Tonka HemingwayDT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
Trey Zuhn IIIG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Treydan StukesSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (concussion)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 2

against the posted line

at TEN

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: 0; regular season
Average: 0

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	—	——	——
Last 5	—	——	——
Season	—	——	——
Last season	0	——	33%1/3

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

2 of 2 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 2; of 2
Average: 0; yards
Median: 0; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 2: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ TEN	0	—	—
Week 2	vs GB	0	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

2 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 2	vs GB	0	0	0	—	—	0
Wk 1	@ TEN	1	0	0	—	—	0

Comparable players vs Las Vegas

9 of 15

wide receivers went over their line vs Las Vegas

Puka NacuaLA · Week 7Line 87.568Rec ydsUnder 87.5Under−19.5
Keon ColemanBUF · Week 6Line 39.559Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+19.5
Khalil ShakirBUF · Week 6Line 45.534Rec ydsUnder 45.5Under−11.5
Efton Chism IIINE · Week 5Line 26.557Rec ydsOver 26.5Over+30.5
Romeo DoubsNE · Week 5Line 48.516Rec ydsUnder 48.5Under−32.5
Tyquan ThorntonKC · Week 4Line 21.5111Rec ydsOver 21.5Over+89.5
Xavier WorthyKC · Week 4Line 33.570Rec ydsOver 33.5Over+36.5
Bryce LanceNO · Week 3Line 16.50Rec ydsUnder 16.5Under−16.5
Chris OlaveNO · Week 3Line 76.5107Rec ydsOver 76.5Over+30.5
Devaughn VeleNO · Week 3Line 48.539Rec ydsUnder 48.5Under−9.5
Quentin JohnstonLAC · Week 2Line 46.57Rec ydsUnder 46.5Under−39.5
Tre HarrisLAC · Week 2Line 30.553Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+22.5
Caleb DouglasMIA · Week 1Line 27.594Rec ydsOver 27.5Over+66.5
Chris BellMIA · Week 1Line 17.525Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+7.5
Malik WashingtonMIA · Week 1Line 27.553Rec ydsOver 27.5Over+25.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Las Vegas Raiders defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Las Vegas Raiders actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	16.9	18.4	8th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	57%	62%	4th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	149.9	148.8	18th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8.9	8.1	26th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	14	11.1	32nd of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	5.1	4.3	28th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	15%	11%	30th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	20.1	28th of 32
RB	25.4	27th of 32
WRhis position	31.4	17th of 32
TE	19.6	29th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Malik Washington2026 · Wk 1	53
Elic Ayomanor2025 · Wk 6	27
Caleb Douglas2026 · Wk 1	94
Darius Slayton2025 · Wk 17	36
Devaughn Vele2026 · Wk 3	39

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 45.5; combined
NYJ implied total: 23.5; favored
LV implied total: 22; underdog
Projected script: Close; tight spread
Pace: 31.5s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 60°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 57.4; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 34; 59% pass
His receptions: 0.5; projected this game
Red-zone trips: 2.6; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −3.3; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share2%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %2%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share2%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share—

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share0%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g0.5

Targets per game

Yards / route run0

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT4

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Not Specified
Game status: Ir
Snap share, last game: 1%
Games missed this season: 5

If Smith sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Tim PatrickWR · 41% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Braelon AllenRB+2.6targets
Jeremy RuckertTE+1targets
Kenyon SadiqTE+0.8targets
Garrett WilsonWR+0.4targets

Based on 5 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

0 posted · 8 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Anytime TD	No line posted yet
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
1st TD	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Last TD	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Arian Smith's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Arian Smith's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Arian Smith's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Arian Smith's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.