TE · Los Angeles Chargers#88
Charlie Kolar
Updated
Charlie Kolar's receiving yards line is 18.5 for Week 8 at Los Angeles Rams (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 15.9. 6 of 7 markets posted.
@ Los Angeles Rams · Week 8 · Dome
- Line
- 18.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 15.9
- this week
- Difference
- −2.6
- −14%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- −1.0, from 19.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 18.5 receiving yards
Line18.5Down 1 since it opened at 19.5 on Thursday, after swinging between 17.5 and 19.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 18.5 receiving yards
- 6.5PT UNDERDOGLos Angeles is a 6.5 point underdog.
- 3/4GAMESHe has topped 18.5 in 3 of his 4 games, and his typical game is about 20 receiving yards.
Under
Why he could fall short of 18.5
- 1stFEWESTLos Angeles gives up 5 yards a target to tight ends this season, the fewest in the league.
- 2ndLOWESTLos Angeles lets tight ends catch 59% of their targets this season, the 2nd lowest in the league.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Los Angeles Chargers is without tight end David Njoku, so the position’s targets stay with Kolar. Across from him, Los Angeles Rams is missing three linebackers, the players who usually cover tight ends.
KolarNo injury designation
Around himLos Angeles Chargers
5 of 30 touch Kolar
This week
- OutBrenen ThompsonWR · quadricepFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDavid NjokuTELeaves the tight end targets to him
- IRDalevon CampbellWRFrees targets
- IRSincere BrownWRFrees targets
Show 1 more
- IRTrey LanceQBChanges who throws to him
Across from himLos Angeles Rams
6 of 23 touch Kolar
This week
- QuestionableTrent McDuffieCB · groinIn pass coverage
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDaniel RickertLBCovers tight ends
- IREddie Walls IIILBCovers tight ends
- IRMyles GarrettLB · kneeCovers tight ends
Show 1 more
- IRZech McPhearsonCBIn pass coverage
Off the report this week
- ClearedNate LandmanLB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3023ShowHide
LAC · Los Angeles Chargers
30 listed- Brenen ThompsonWR · quadricepOut
- Deane LeonardCB · concussionOut
- Derwin JamesFS · hamstringOut
- Joe AltOTOut last week
- Kayode AwosikaGOut last week
- Donte JacksonCB · hamstringQuestionable
- Rodney ShelleyDB · hamstringQuestionable
- Alec IngoldFB · Not specifiedIR
- Dalevon CampbellWR · Not specifiedIR
- David NjokuTE · Not specifiedIR
- Denzel PerrymanMLB · undisclosedIR
- Isaiah WorldOT · Not specifiedIR
- Rashawn SlaterOT · Not specifiedIR
- Sincere BrownWR · Not specifiedIR
- Trevor PenningOT · Not specifiedIR
- Trey LanceQB · Not specifiedIR
- Trey PipkinsOT · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BiadaszC · Not specifiedIR
- Branson TaylorOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (neck)—
- Bud DupreeOLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q—
- Daiyan HenleyLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Dalvin TomlinsonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Elijah MoldenCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
- Jamaree CaldwellDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Ladd McConkeyWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
- Quentin JohnstonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (chest)—
- Scott MatlockRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
- Tre HarrisWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
- Tuli TuipulotuLB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—
LA · Los Angeles Rams
23 listed- Colby ParkinsonTE · ribsQuestionable
- Jordan WhittingtonWR · backQuestionable
- Trent McDuffieCB · groinQuestionable
- Blake GrupeK · Not specifiedIR
- Daniel RickertLB · Not specifiedIR
- Davante AdamsWR · hamstringIR
- Eddie Walls IIILB · Not specifiedIR
- Justin DedichOL · Not specifiedIR
- Kobie TurnerDE · Not specifiedIR
- Matthew CaldwellQB · Not specifiedIR
- Myles GarrettLB · kneeIR
- Poona FordDT · Not specifiedIR
- Ronnie RiversRB · Not specifiedIR
- Terrance FergusonTE · ankleIR
- Zech McPhearsonCB · Not specifiedIR
- Aaron DonaldDE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
- Jaylen WatsonCB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
- Josaiah StewartLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (groin)—
- Kam CurlSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Kamren KinchensSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Doubtful (hamstring)—
- Nate LandmanLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (concussion)Cleared
- Puka NacuaWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (calf)Cleared
- Quentin LakeSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hip)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- 18.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 15.9
- −2.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 4
- 75% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 20.5
- regular season
- Average
- 19.5
- +1.0 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 21 | 100%3/3 | 0%0/1 |
| Last 5 | 20.5 | 75%3/4 | 0%0/2 |
| Season | 20.5 | 75%3/4 | 0%0/2 |
| Last season | 10 | 31%4/13 | 80%4/5 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 19.5
- yards
- Median
- 20.5
- yards
- Above 18.5
- 3 of 4
- 75% of the sample
- vs the full 4
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs ARI | 0 | 16.5 | −16.5 |
| Week 2 | vs LV | 21 | — | — |
| Week 5 | vs DEN | 37 | — | — |
| Week 6 | @ KC | 20 | 21.5 | −1.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ KC | 66% | 6 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs DEN | 76% | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 62% | 3 | 3 | 21 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs LA Rams
Other tight ends who faced LA Rams this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went under their line vs LA Rams
- Brock BowersLV · Week 7Line 72.573Rec ydsOver 72.5Over+0.5
- Michael MayerLV · Week 7Line 30.532Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+1.5
- Trey McBrideARI · Week 6Line 64.553Rec ydsUnder 64.5Under−11.5
- Dalton KincaidBUF · Week 5Line 56.57Rec ydsUnder 56.5Under−49.5
- Dawson KnoxBUF · Week 5Line 11.56Rec ydsUnder 11.5Under−5.5
- Johnny MundtPHI · Week 4Line 8.50Rec ydsUnder 8.5Under−8.5
- Evan EngramDEN · Week 3Line 21.50Rec ydsUnder 21.5Under−21.5
- Isaiah LikelyNYG · Week 2Line 43.533Rec ydsUnder 43.5Under−10.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Los Angeles Rams defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Los Angeles Rams actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 8.3 | 7.6 | 24th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 59% | 72% | 2nd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 41.7 | 54.5 | 7th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 5 | 7.1 | 1st of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 6.3 | 6.1 | 16th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.6 | 4.9 | 15th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 8% | 11% | 7th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 17.1 | 18th of 32 |
| RB | 20.3 | 13th of 32 |
| WR | 26.8 | 5th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 10.2 | 5th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Trey McBride2026 · Wk 6 | 53 |
| AJ Barner2025 · Wk 16 | 49 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 17 | 16 |
| Dallas Goedert2025 · Wk 3 | 33 |
| Tyler Warren2025 · Wk 4 | 70 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 45
- combined
- LAC implied total
- 19.25
- underdog
- LA implied total
- 25.75
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 29.8s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 61.7
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 36.8
- 60% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −9.8
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 5: Q (forearm)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 66%
- Games missed this season
- 2
If Kolar sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Oronde Gadsden IITE · 54% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Keaton MitchellRB+3targets
- Oronde Gadsden IITE+3targets
- Tre HarrisWR+1.7targets
- Kimani VidalRB+1targets
Based on 2 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 18.5 | 15.9Nuvela projection | −2.6 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 19.5 | −1.0 |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 2.1Nuvela projection | −0.4 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 20% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 20% | level |
| Longest Reception | 10.5 | 10.9Nuvela | +0.4 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 10.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 4% | level |
| Last TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 6% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 2:04 PM19.5opened
- Thu 8:04 PM17.5−2.0
- Fri 8:06 AM18.5+1.0
Opened 19.5, now 18.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 19.5 | −111 | −120 |
| BetOnline | 17.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 18.5 | −112 | −120 |
| Bovada | 18.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 18.5 | −115 | −109 |
| FanDuel | 17.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Charlie Kolar's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Charlie Kolar's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Charlie Kolar's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Charlie Kolar's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
