nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · SUNDAY

Colts vs Jaguars Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
EverBank Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 76F, 9 mph wind, clouds

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Brenton StrangeJAX · RECEPTIONS
    Line
    3.5
    Nuvela projection
    4.3
    Gap
    +0.8
  2. Daniel JonesIND · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    188.5
    Nuvela projection
    216.7
    Gap
    +28.2
  3. Daniel JonesIND · PASS + RUSH YARDS
    Line
    199.5
    Nuvela projection
    224.8
    Gap
    +25.3
  4. Brenton StrangeJAX · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    37.5
    Nuvela projection
    42.9
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Parker WashingtonJAX · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    65.5
    Nuvela projection
    59.0
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 124.3Projected play count
  • -4.4Pass rate over expected
  • 6thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Colts17.518.5+1.0
Jaguars28.526.8−1.7
Game total46.545.4−1.1

The Jaguars carry 63% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

145 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props141

Colts · Away7 players

PASSING YARDS
188.5MARKET+28.2MODERATE216.7Nuvela projection
Season range 108-269PASS + RUSH YARDS
199.5MARKET+25.3MODERATE224.8Nuvela projection
Season range 121-299PASS ATTEMPTS
31.5MARKET+2.4MODERATE33.9Nuvela projection
Season range 22-44COMPLETIONS
19.5MARKET+1.5In line with market21.0Nuvela projection
Season range 13-24RUSHING YARDS
8.5MARKET−0.4In line with market8.1Nuvela projection
Season range 2-30LONGEST COMPLETION
33.5MARKET−7.1WIDE26.4Nuvela
Season range 13-48LONGEST RUSH
6.5MARKET−2.4WIDE4.1Nuvela
Season range 2-171ST TD
2%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
12%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-1LAST TD
3%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET59%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-2PASSING TDS
0.5MARKET65%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-1
Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Jaguars · Home9 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
46.5MARKET−1.1GAP45.445.4
Season range 26-65
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
JAX by 10.0MARKET+1.7GAP8.3JAX by 8.3
Season range 2-29

Team props2

Colts · Away1 market

ColtsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
17.5MARKET+1.0GAP18.5Nuvela
Season range 10-30

Jaguars · Home1 market

JaguarsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
28.5MARKET−1.7GAP26.8Nuvela
Season range 13-35