Where do Darnell Washington's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Darnell Washington's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Darnell Washington's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Darnell Washington's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers#80

Darnell Washington

Updated Oct 30, 12:09 PM PT

Darnell Washington's receiving yards line is 19.5 for Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 15.2. 6 of 7 markets posted.

vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8

Line: 19.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 15.2; this week
Difference: −4.3; −22%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 7
Line since open: +1.0, from 18.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line19.5Up 1 since it opened at 18.5 on Wednesday, after swinging between 17.5 and 20.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 19.5 receiving yards

32ndOF 32Cleveland lets 16% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the most in the league.
23.7A GAMEHe has averaged about 24 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 19.5.

Under

Why he could fall short of 19.5

8thFEWESTCleveland gives up 6.1 yards a target to tight ends this season, the 8th fewest in the league.
3.3TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 3.3 targets a game, 9% of Pittsburgh's total, over 7 games.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Pittsburgh is missing three receivers, which frees targets. Across from him, Cleveland is missing two linebackers and one safety, the players who usually cover tight ends.

WashingtonNo injury designation

Around himPittsburgh Steelers

4 of 22 touch Washington

This week

QuestionableBen SkowronekWR · calfFrees targets

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCole BurgessWRFrees targets
IRMichael PittmanWRFrees targets
IRRoman WilsonWRFrees targets

Across from himCleveland Browns

7 of 30 touch Washington

This week

QuestionableDaniel ThomasSAF · ankleCovers tight ends
QuestionableMyles HardenCB · hamstringIn pass coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDamarri MathisDBCovers tight ends
IREdefuan UlofoshioLBCovers tight ends
PUPJeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBCovers tight ends

Off the report this week

ClearedDenzel WardCB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedQuincy WilliamsLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2230Show

PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers

22 listed

Brandin EcholsCB · hamstringOut
Doneiko SlaughterDB · hamstringOut
Ben SkowronekWR · calfQuestionable
Cole BurgessWR · Not specifiedIR
Daequan HardyCB · Not specifiedIR
Derrick HarmonDT · Not specifiedIR
Donte KentCB · Not specifiedPUP
Gennings DunkerG · Not specifiedIR
Jack DriscollOT · Not specifiedIR
Logan LeeDT · Not specifiedIR
Michael PittmanWR · Not specifiedIR
Roman WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsIR
DeShon ElliottSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Jalen RamseyCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
Jamel DeanCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Jaylen WarrenRB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Keeanu BentonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Pat FreiermuthTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)—
Rico DowdleRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Troy FautanuOT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (ankle)—
Yahya BlackDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q—

CLE · Cleveland Browns

30 listed

Dillon GabrielQBOut last week
Daniel ThomasSAF · ankleQuestionable
Myles HardenCB · hamstringQuestionable
Alex WrightDE · Not specifiedIR
Damarri MathisDB · Not specifiedIR
Edefuan UlofoshioLB · Not specifiedIR
Elijah ChatmanDT · Not specifiedIR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Not specifiedPUP
Joe RoyerTE · Not specifiedPUP
Kalia DavisDT · quadricepIR
Raheim SandersRB · Not specifiedIR
Teven JenkinsG · backIR
Bub MeansWRPractice squad
John Saunders Jr.SAFInactive
Audric EstiméRB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (thigh)—
Carsen RyanTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (calf)—
Carson SchwesingerLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Denzel WardCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hand)Cleared
Derek BarnettDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Dylan SampsonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Elgton JenkinsC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
Grant DelpitSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Mason GrahamDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee, ankle)—
Mike Hall Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Noah IgbinogheneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hand)—
Parker BrailsfordC · Last listed Wk 1: Q (thumb)—
Quincy WilliamsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Quinshon JudkinsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tylan WallaceWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
Tyson CampbellCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 7

against the posted 19.5

ATL

at NE

CIN

at CLE

IND

at TB

at NO

15.2vs CLE

Cleared 19.5Under 19.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line19.5

Consensus line: 19.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 15.2; −4.3 on the line
Above the line: 3 of 7; 43% of the sample
vs closing lines: 2 of 7; each week's own close
Median: 18; regular season
Average: 22.9; +3.4 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	12	33%1/3	0%0/3
Last 5	25	60%3/5	20%1/5
Season	18	43%3/7	29%2/7
Last season	22	62%8/13	73%8/11

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

7 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 7; of 7
Average: 22.9; yards
Median: 18; yards
Above 19.5: 3 of 7; 43% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs ATL	18	16.5	+1.5
Week 2	@ NE	7	14.5	−7.5
Week 3	vs CIN	67	13.5	+53.5
Week 4	@ CLE	27	27.5	−0.5
Week 5	vs IND	12	22.5	−10.5
Week 6	@ TB	25	25.5	−0.5
Week 7	@ NO	4	24.5	−20.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Snap%	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	TD
Wk 7	@ NO	56%	1	1	4	4	1
Wk 6	@ TB	71%	6	4	25	9	1
Wk 5	vs IND	63%	3	2	12	10	0
Wk 4	@ CLE	71%	5	3	27	21	1
Wk 3	vs CIN	76%	4	3	67	47	0
Wk 2	@ NE	53%	2	1	7	7	0
Wk 1	vs ATL	64%	2	2	18	15	0

Comparable players vs Cleveland

4 of 7

tight ends went over their line vs Cleveland

Washington this weekLine19.5Nuvela projection15.2

Gunnar HelmTEN · Week 7Line 12.524Rec ydsOver 12.5Over+11.5
Mark AndrewsBAL · Week 6Line 28.54Rec ydsUnder 28.5Under−24.5
Mason TaylorNYJ · Week 5Line 12.524Rec ydsOver 12.5Over+11.5
Pat FreiermuthPIT · Week 4Line 27.517Rec ydsUnder 27.5Under−10.5
Darren WallerCAR · Week 3Line 20.551Rec ydsOver 20.5Over+30.5
Cade OttonTB · Week 2Line 29.538Rec ydsOver 29.5Over+8.5
Brenton StrangeJAX · Week 1Line 36.523Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−13.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Cleveland Browns defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Cleveland Browns actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	8.1	7.6	20th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	68%	72%	9th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	49.3	54.5	17th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	6.1	7.1	8th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	7.1	6.1	26th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	3.9	4.9	9th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	16%	11%	32nd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	14.7	8th of 32
RB	19.4	8th of 32
WR	31.8	19th of 32
TEhis position	13.6	18th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Brock Bowers2025 · Wk 12	55
Sam LaPorta2025 · Wk 4	39
Cade Otton2026 · Wk 2	38
Tucker Kraft2025 · Wk 3	29
George Kittle2025 · Wk 13	67

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 39.5; combined
PIT implied total: 21.5; favored
CLE implied total: 18; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 30.2s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 66°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 62.3; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 41.2; 66% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +2.9; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share65%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %52%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share9%

Of all his team's targets

RZ target share19%

Inside the opponent's 20

Inside-10 tgt share50%

Of the team's targets inside the 10

aDOT4.9

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

1 session

Rest Day

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 56%
Games missed this season: 0

If Washington sits

If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.

Next up

Pat FreiermuthTE · 63% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 1 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	19.5	15.2Nuvela projection	−4.3	3 of 5	18.5	+1.0
Receptions	2.5	2.1Nuvela projection	−0.4	3 of 5	2.5	level
Anytime TD	25%	Market only	—	3 of 5	26%	−1%
Longest Reception	13.5	10.1Nuvela	−3.4	2 of 5	13.5	level
1st TD	7%	Market only	—	1 of 5	7%	level
Last TD	8%	Market only	—	0 of 5	7%	+1%
2+ TDs	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net +1 (range 17.5–20.5)

Wed 2:03 PM18.5opened
Thu 2:03 AM17.5−1.0
Thu 10:59 AM20.5+3.0
Fri 11:01 AM19.5−1.0

Opened 18.5, now 19.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

6 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	18.5	−120	−110
BetOnline	20.5	−114	−114
BetRivers	19.5	−118	−113
Bovada	19.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	19.5	−111	−113
FanDuel	20.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Darnell Washington's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Darnell Washington's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Darnell Washington's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Darnell Washington's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.