nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · SUNDAY

Browns vs Steelers Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 66F, 3 mph wind, clouds

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Rico DowdlePIT · RUSH ATTEMPTS
    Line
    7.5
    Nuvela projection
    9.5
    Gap
    +2.0
  2. Rico DowdlePIT · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    26.5
    Nuvela projection
    36.7
    Gap
    +10.2
  3. Dylan SampsonCLE · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    11.5
    Nuvela projection
    21.4
    Gap
    +9.9
  4. DK MetcalfPIT · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    55.5
    Nuvela projection
    48.0
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Dylan SampsonCLE · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    16.5
    Nuvela projection
    13.0
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 121.6Projected play count
  • +0.9Pass rate over expected
  • 7thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Browns17.518.0+0.5
Steelers21.522.8+1.3
Game total39.540.7+1.2

The Steelers carry 72% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

152 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props148

Browns · Away7 players

RECEPTIONS
1.5MARKET+1.0WIDE2.5Nuvela projection
Season range 1-6RECEIVING YARDS
9.5MARKET+4.6WIDE14.1Nuvela projection
Season range 6-43RUSHING YARDS
46.5MARKET+3.7In line with market50.2Nuvela projection
Season range 21-96RUSH + REC YARDS
60.5MARKET+3.8In line with market64.3Nuvela projection
Season range 48-104RUSH ATTEMPTS
14.5MARKET+0.2In line with market14.7Nuvela projection
Season range 12-18LONGEST RECEPTION
7.5MARKET+2.6WIDE10.1Nuvela
Season range 3-16LONGEST RUSH
11.5MARKET−1.4MODERATE10.1Nuvela
Season range 5-301ST TD
14%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
43%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-2LAST TD
14%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this market
Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Steelers · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 8 players · 20 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
39.5MARKET+1.2GAP40.740.7
Season range 23-57
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
PIT by 3.5MARKET+1.3GAP4.8PIT by 4.8
Season range 3-24

Team props2

Browns · Away1 market

BrownsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
17.5MARKET+0.5GAP18.0Nuvela
Season range 10-27

Steelers · Home1 market

SteelersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
21.5MARKET+1.3GAP22.8Nuvela
Season range 3-34