Where do Keon Coleman's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Keon Coleman's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Keon Coleman's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Keon Coleman's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Buffalo Bills#0

Keon Coleman

Updated Oct 30, 5:57 AM PT

Keon Coleman's receiving yards line is 29.5 for Week 8 vs Baltimore Ravens (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 38.2. 6 of 8 markets posted.

vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8

Line: 29.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 38.2; this week
Difference: +8.7; +29%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:08 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 8
Line since open: −1.0, from 30.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:09 PM PT

Highlights

Line29.5Down 1 since it opened at 30.5 on Tuesday, after swinging between 29.5 and 31.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 29.5 receiving yards

47.2A GAMEHe has averaged about 47 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 29.5.
54.5TOTALThe game total is 54.5, a high scoring matchup.

Under

Why he could fall short of 29.5

14.5PREVIOUS HIGHAt 29.5, this is the highest line he has seen this season. His others ran from 11.5 to 14.5.
14.3YDS DOWNFIELDHis average target is 14.3 yards downfield, and Baltimore allows a deep throw on 8% of attempts, the 4th fewest in the league.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Buffalo is without receiver Tyrell Shavers, so more of the receiver targets go to Coleman. Across from him, Baltimore is missing two cornerbacks, the players who usually cover receivers.

ColemanNo injury designation

Around himBuffalo Bills

3 of 21 touch Coleman

This week

QuestionableDJ MooreWR · shoulderFrees targets at his spot
QuestionableDalton KincaidTE · chestFrees targets

Out long term · already in his recent games

PUPTyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclFrees targets at his spot

Across from himBaltimore Ravens

4 of 27 touch Coleman

This week

OutJaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeDeep coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRBilhal KoneCBCovers receivers
IRJahquez RobinsonSAFDeep coverage
IRT.J. TampaCB · kneeCovers receivers

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2127Show

BUF · Buffalo Bills

21 listed

DJ MooreWR · shoulderQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTE · chestQuestionable
Dee AlfordCB · ankleQuestionable
Greg GainesDT · calfQuestionable
TJ ParkerLB · kneeQuestionable
Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesLB · Not specifiedIR
Desmond ReidRB · Not specifiedIR
Dorian StrongCB · Not specifiedPUP
Jordan HancockCB · Not specifiedIR
Tyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclPUP
Zane DurantDT · Not specifiedIR
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionSuspended
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsG · Last listed Wk 3: Q (elbow)—
Christian BenfordCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (toe)—
Cole BishopSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee, groin)—
Ed OliverDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Josh PalmerWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
Landon JacksonDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Ray DavisRB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
T.J. SandersDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
Ty JohnsonRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)—

BAL · Baltimore Ravens

27 listed

Jaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeOut
Adam RandallRB · neckIR
Bilhal KoneCB · Not specifiedIR
Danny PinterG · Not specifiedIR
Durham SmytheTE · Not specifiedIR
Ethan PocicC · Not specifiedIR
Jahquez RobinsonSAF · Not specifiedIR
Jovaughn GwynC · Not specifiedIR
Skylar ThompsonQB · Not specifiedIR
T.J. TampaCB · kneeIR
Tavius RobinsonLB · pectoralIR
Andrew VorheesG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)—
Broderick WashingtonDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
Cam JurgensG · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
Chris MooreWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle)—
Devontez WalkerWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
Emery Jones Jr.OT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
John SimpsonG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
Lamar JacksonQB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Marlon HumphreyCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring, calf)—
Matthew HibnerTE · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hand)—
Nnamdi MadubuikeDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (neck)—
Ronnie StanleyOT · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Teddye BuchananLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
Trey HendricksonLB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (finger)—
Zay FlowersWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 6

against the posted 29.5

at HOU

DET

LAC

116

at LA

at LV

38.2vs BAL

Cleared 29.5Under 29.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line29.5

Consensus line: 29.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 38.2; +8.7 on the line
Above the line: 4 of 6; 67% of the sample
vs closing lines: 4 of 6; each week's own close
Median: 48; regular season
Average: 47.2; +17.7 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	59	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	59	80%4/5	80%4/5
Season	48	67%4/6	67%4/6
Last season	24.5	42%5/12	27%3/11

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

6 of 6 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 6; of 6
Average: 47.2; yards
Median: 48; yards
Above 29.5: 4 of 6; 67% of the sample
vs the full 6: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ HOU	1	11.5	−10.5
Week 2	vs DET	63	14.5	+48.5
Week 3	vs LAC	37	14.5	+22.5
Week 4	vs NE	116	13.5	+102.5
Week 5	@ LA	7	7.5	−0.5
Week 6	@ LV	59	39.5	+19.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

6 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 6	@ LV	6	4	59	21	14.6	1
Wk 5	@ LA	2	1	7	7	—	1
Wk 4	vs NE	7	6	116	34	12.1	1
Wk 3	vs LAC	2	1	37	37	—	0
Wk 2	vs DET	6	6	63	22	7.8	0
Wk 1	@ HOU	1	1	1	11	—	0

Comparable players vs Baltimore

12 of 19

wide receivers went over their line vs Baltimore

Coleman this weekLine29.5Nuvela projection38.2

Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · Week 7Line 80.562Rec ydsUnder 80.5Under−18.5
Tee HigginsCIN · Week 7Line 65.5148Rec ydsOver 65.5Over+82.5
Denzel BostonCLE · Week 6Line 50.515Rec ydsUnder 50.5Under−35.5
Jerry JeudyCLE · Week 6Line 16.569Rec ydsOver 16.5Over+52.5
KC ConcepcionCLE · Week 6Line 38.537Rec ydsUnder 38.5Under−1.5
Drake LondonATL · Week 5Line 80.5118Rec ydsOver 80.5Over+37.5
Jahan DotsonATL · Week 5Line 20.554Rec ydsOver 20.5Over+33.5
Carnell TateTEN · Week 4Line 43.5145Rec ydsOver 43.5Over+101.5
Elic AyomanorTEN · Week 4Line 19.522Rec ydsOver 19.5Over+2.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Week 4Line 37.519Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−18.5
CeeDee LambDAL · Week 3Line 82.5112Rec ydsOver 82.5Over+29.5
George PickensDAL · Week 3Line 64.582Rec ydsOver 64.5Over+17.5
Ryan FlournoyDAL · Week 3Line 30.522Rec ydsUnder 30.5Under−8.5
Bryce LanceNO · Week 2Line 19.58Rec ydsUnder 19.5Under−11.5
Chris OlaveNO · Week 2Line 65.586Rec ydsOver 65.5Over+20.5
Devaughn VeleNO · Week 2Line 39.564Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+24.5
Alec PierceIND · Week 1Line 29.561Rec ydsOver 29.5Over+31.5
Josh DownsIND · Week 1Line 46.537Rec ydsUnder 46.5Under−9.5
Keenan AllenIND · Week 1Line 28.532Rec ydsOver 28.5Over+3.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Baltimore Ravens defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Baltimore Ravens actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	19.6	18.4	23rd of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	67%	62%	29th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	181.6	148.8	28th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	9.3	8.1	29th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	10.5	11.1	11th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	4.1	4.3	13th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	8%	11%	4th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	16.9	17th of 32
RB	18.5	5th of 32
WRhis position	35.8	25th of 32
TE	12.3	13th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Justin Jefferson2025 · Wk 10	37
Drake London2026 · Wk 5	118
Devaughn Vele2026 · Wk 2	64
Jordan Addison2025 · Wk 10	35
Rome Odunze2025 · Wk 8	114

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 54.5; combined
BUF implied total: 28.75; favored
BAL implied total: 25.75; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 30.4s; seconds / play
Wind: 4 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 62°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 59; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 33.9; 57% pass
Red-zone trips: 4.5; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −2.1; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share68%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %69%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share14%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share24%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share17%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g4

Targets per game

Yards / route run2.3

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT14.3

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Last listed Wk 3: Q (ankle)
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 85%
Games missed this season: 0

If Coleman sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Skyler BellWR · 53% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 2 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	29.5	38.2Nuvela projection	+8.7	4 of 5	30.5	−1.0
Receptions	2.5	3.1Nuvela projection	+0.6	3 of 5	2.5	level
Anytime TD	22%	Market only	—	3 of 5	21%	+1%
Longest Reception	16.5	23.0Nuvela	+6.5	4 of 5	16.5	level
1st TD	4%	Market only	—	0 of 5	4%	level
Last TD	5%	Market only	—	0 of 5	4%	level
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net −1 (range 29.5–31.5)

Tue 8:02 PM30.5opened
Thu 10:59 AM31.5+1.0
Fri 11:01 AM29.5−2.0

Opened 30.5, now 29.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

6 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	28.5	−125	−105
BetOnline	30.5	−114	−114
BetRivers	29.5	−117	−114
Bovada	32.5	−110	−120
DraftKings	32.5	−110	−115
FanDuel	29.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Keon Coleman's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Keon Coleman's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Keon Coleman's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Keon Coleman's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.