TE · Carolina Panthers#82
Tommy Tremble
Updated
Tommy Tremble's receiving yards line is 16.5 for Week 7 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 15.8. 6 of 7 markets posted.
vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7
- Line
- 16.5
- Receiving Yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 15.8
- this week
- Difference
- −0.7
- −4%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- level, from 16.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 16.5 receiving yards
He has averaged 25.6 receiving yards a game over his last 5 games, above this line. The doubt is Tampa Bay's target depth allowed (the 7th shortest in the league).
Line16.5Hasn't moved since it opened Wed 10:04 AM PT, at BetMGM, BetOnline and 2 more.
Over
Why he could top 16.5 receiving yards
- 25.6A GAMEHe has averaged 25.6 receiving yards a game over his last 5 games, above this line.
- 26thOF 32Tight ends see 8.5 targets a game against Tampa Bay this season, the 7th most in the league. The league average is 7.7.
- +4.8VS EXPECTEDCarolina throws more than teams usually do in the same game situations: +4.8 points of pass rate over 5 games.
Under
Why he could fall short of 16.5
- 7thSHORTESTTampa Bay lets the ball travel 4.8 air yards a target to tight ends this season, the 7th shortest in the league. The league average is 6.1.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Carolina is missing two receivers, which frees targets. Across from him, Tampa Bay is missing three safeties and two linebackers, the players who usually cover tight ends.
TrembleNo injury designation
Around himCarolina Panthers
2 of 25 touch Tremble
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRChris Brazzell IIWRFrees targets
- IRXavier LegetteWRFrees targets
Across from himTampa Bay Buccaneers
9 of 22 touch Tremble
This week
- OutAntoine Winfield Jr.SAF · ribCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRChristian RozeboomLB · fingerCovers tight ends
- IRJosh HayesDBCovers tight ends
- IRMohamed KamaraLBCovers tight ends
Show 1 more
- IRXavier WilliamsSAFCovers tight ends
Off the report this week
- ClearedAyden GarnesCB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedBenjamin MorrisonCB · was Doubtful in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedJosiah TrotterLB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedSirVocea DennisLB · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2522ShowHide
CAR · Carolina Panthers
25 listed- Jaelan PhillipsLB · hamstringOut
- Bam Martin-ScottLB · hamstringQuestionable
- Monroe FreelingOT · kneeQuestionable
- Brady ChristensenOT · Not specifiedIR
- Cam JacksonDT · shoulderIR
- Chris Brazzell IIWR · Not specifiedIR
- Ikem EkwonuOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jaycee HornCB · Not specifiedIR
- Jonathon BrooksRB · abdomenIR
- Mike JacksonCB · Not specifiedIR
- Nic ScourtonLB · Not specifiedIR
- Ryan HayesOT · Not specifiedIR
- Thomas IncoomLB · calfIR
- Xavier LegetteWR · Not specifiedIR
- AJ DillonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ankle)Cleared
- Bobby Brown IIIDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (back)—
- Damien LewisG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (elbow)Cleared
- Devin LloydLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
- Jalen CokerWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
- Lee HunterDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (foot)—
- Nick ScottSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (rib)—
- Patrick Jones IILB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (back)—
- Taylor MotonOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (lung)Cleared
- Tershawn WhartonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (neck)Cleared
- Trevor EtienneRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
22 listed- Antoine Winfield Jr.SAF · ribOut
- Emeka EgbukaWR · concussion, footOut
- Luke GoedekeOT · calfOut
- Baker MayfieldQB · thumbQuestionable
- Christian RozeboomLB · fingerIR
- Dennis HoustonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Jalen McMillanWR · Not specifiedIR
- Josh HayesDB · Not specifiedIR
- Mohamed KamaraLB · Not specifiedIR
- Xavier WilliamsSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Ayden GarnesCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Benjamin MorrisonCB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (quadricep)Cleared
- David SillsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Jacob ParrishCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Josiah TrotterLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Justin SkuleOT · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (oblique)—
- Ko KieftTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
- Miles KillebrewSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
- Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle, foot)—
- Rueben Bain Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin, shoulder)—
- Sean TuckerRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)Cleared
- SirVocea DennisLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle, foot)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 5
- Consensus line
- 16.5
- yards
- Tank01, median-adjusted
- 15.8
- −0.7 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 5
- 60% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 5
- each week's own close
- Median
- 25
- regular season
- Average
- 25.6
- +9.1 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 41 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 25 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 25 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last season | 7 | 33%5/15 | 39%5/13 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 5
- of 5
- Average
- 25.6
- yards
- Median
- 25
- yards
- Above 16.5
- 3 of 5
- 60% of the sample
- vs the full 5
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 25 | 10.5 | +14.5 |
| Week 2 | @ ATL | 4 | 13.5 | −9.5 |
| Week 3 | @ CLE | 41 | 10.5 | +30.5 |
| Week 4 | vs DET | 12 | 13.5 | −1.5 |
| Week 6 | @ PHI | 46 | 12.5 | +33.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ PHI | 68% | 4 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 2 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 51% | 4 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 48% | 4 | 3 | 41 | 17 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 56% | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 56% | 5 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Tampa Bay
Other tight ends who faced Tampa Bay this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went under their line vs Tampa Bay
- Darnell WashingtonPIT · Week 6Line 25.525Rec ydsUnder 25.5Under−0.5
- Pat FreiermuthPIT · Week 6Line 30.511Rec ydsUnder 30.5Under−19.5
- Jake FergusonDAL · Week 5Line 26.519Rec ydsUnder 26.5Under−7.5
- Tucker KraftGB · Week 4Line 40.542Rec ydsOver 40.5Over+1.5
- T.J. HockensonMIN · Week 3Line 30.511Rec ydsUnder 30.5Under−19.5
- Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · Week 2Line 33.554Rec ydsOver 33.5Over+20.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Tampa Bay Buccaneers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 8.5 | 7.7 | 26th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 71% | 72% | 15th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 56.2 | 54.2 | 22nd of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 6.6 | 7 | 13th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 4.8 | 6.1 | 7th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 5.1 | 4.8 | 23rd of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 8% | 11% | 6th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 14.3 | 7th of 32 |
| RB | 17.1 | 3rd of 32 |
| WR | 32.2 | 18th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 15.7 | 23rd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta2025 · Wk 7 | 15 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 15 | 166 |
| Tucker Kraft2026 · Wk 4 | 42 |
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 13 | 82 |
| Hunter Henry2025 · Wk 10 | 9 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 44.5
- combined
- CAR implied total
- 23.75
- favored
- TB implied total
- 20.75
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 26.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 69°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 67.6
- 5-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 44.1
- 65% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4
- 5-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +4.8
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 68%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Tremble sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Darren WallerTE · 50% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 16.5 | 15.8Tank01, median-adjusted | −0.7 | 3 of 5 | 16.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 2.3Nuvela projection | +0.8 | 4 of 5 | 2.5 | −1.0 |
| Anytime TD | 24% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 25% | −1% |
| Longest Reception | 10.5 | 10.6Nuvela | +0.1 | 3 of 5 | 12.5 | −2.0 |
| 1st TD | 5% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 6% | −1% |
| Last TD | 7% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 7% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 10:04 AM16.5opened
- Sat 11:07 PM16.50.0
Opened 16.5, now 16.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 16.5 | −120 | −110 |
| BetOnline | 16.5 | −116 | −111 |
| BetRivers | 16.5 | −121 | −110 |
| Bovada | 15.5 | −110 | −120 |
| DraftKings | 15.5 | −109 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 16.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
