nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · SUNDAY

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, rain

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Drake LondonATL · RECEPTIONS
    Line
    6.5
    Nuvela projection
    5.3
    Gap
    −1.2
  2. Drake LondonATL · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    78.5
    Nuvela projection
    71.3
    Gap
    In line with market
  3. Bijan RobinsonATL · RUSH + REC YARDS
    Line
    113.5
    Nuvela projection
    106.1
    Gap
    In line with market
  4. Baker MayfieldTB · PASS + RUSH YARDS
    Line
    236.5
    Nuvela projection
    223.9
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Kyle PittsATL · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    34.5
    Nuvela projection
    31.2
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 121.4Projected play count
  • -6.3Pass rate over expected
  • 8thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Falcons21.522.1+0.6
Buccaneers22.524.9+2.4
Game total43.546.9+3.4

The Buccaneers carry 80% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

134 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props130

Falcons · Away5 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Buccaneers · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
43.5MARKET+3.4GAP46.946.9
Season range 31-69
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
TB by 2.5MARKET+0.3GAP2.8TB by 2.8
Season range 3-31

Team props2

Falcons · Away1 market

FalconsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
21.5MARKET+0.6GAP22.1Nuvela
Season range 3-45

Buccaneers · Home1 market

BuccaneersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
22.5MARKET+2.4GAP24.9Nuvela
Season range 14-43