nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Browns vs Buccaneers Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 86F, 4 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -4.1Pass rate over expected
  • 14thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Browns16.516.7+0.2
Buccaneers25.521.2−4.3
Game total41.537.9−3.6

The Buccaneers carry 96% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

149 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props145

Browns · Away7 players

RUSHING YARDS
22.5MARKET−7.9WIDE14.6Tank01 projection
Actual 22.0 · final resultPASSING YARDS
175.5MARKET+30.5WIDE206.0Tank01 projection
Actual 238.0 · final resultRUSH ATTEMPTS
4.5MARKET−0.9GAP3.6Tank01 projection
Actual 7.0 · final resultPASS + RUSH YARDS
198.5MARKET · 1 BOOK+22.1MODERATE220.6Tank01 projection
Actual 260.0 · final resultCOMPLETIONS
17.5MARKET+1.6MODERATE19.1Tank01 projection
Actual 24.0 · final resultPASS ATTEMPTS
28.5MARKET+0.9In line with market29.4Tank01 projection
Actual 30.0 · final resultLONGEST COMPLETION
30.5MARKET—GAP— We don't have enough to project this market yet.—
Actual 55.0 · final result1ST TD
4%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
15%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
4%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET56%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 0.0 · final resultPASSING TDS
0.5MARKET62%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 2.0 · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 19 props

Buccaneers · Home7 players

Depth and touchdown only · 8 players · 23 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
41.5MARKET−3.6GAP37.937.9
Season range 44-60
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
TB by 8.5MARKET+4.0GAP4.5TB by 4.5
Season range 6-24

Team props2

Browns · Away1 market

BrownsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
16.5MARKET+0.2GAP16.7Nuvela
Season range 10-10

Buccaneers · Home1 market

BuccaneersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
25.5MARKET−4.3GAP21.2Nuvela
Season range 27-27