Where do Jeremy McNichols's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Jeremy McNichols's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Jeremy McNichols's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Jeremy McNichols's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

RB · Washington Commanders#26

Jeremy McNichols

Updated Oct 30, 6:50 AM PT

Jeremy McNichols' rushing yards line is 21.5 for Week 8 vs Philadelphia Eagles (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 38.6. 5 of 10 markets posted.

vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8

Line: 21.5; Rushing Yards
Nuvela projection: 38.6; this week
Difference: +17.1; +80%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 5 of 10
Line since open: −3.0, from 24.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 3:01 PM PT

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Washington is without running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt, so more of the backfield work stays with McNichols. Across from him, Philadelphia is missing one linebacker, the players who usually stop the run.

McNicholsNo injury designation

Around himWashington Commanders

7 of 27 touch McNichols

This week

QuestionableJohn BatesTE · shoulderFrees targets
QuestionableTreylon BurksWR · footFrees targets

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJacory Croskey-MerrittRB · groinFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRJacoby JonesWRFrees targets
IRJaylin LaneWR · ankleFrees targets

Show 2 more

IRLaremy TunsilOTWeakens his run blocking
IRTerry McLaurinWR · kneeFrees targets

Across from himPhiladelphia Eagles

8 of 29 touch McNichols

This week

OutJihaad CampbellLB · hamstringTackles and covers backs
OutJonathan JonesDB · hamstringCovers backs downfield

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRAndre' SamSAFCovers backs downfield
IRJakorian BennettDB · kneeCovers backs downfield
IRTucker LargeSAFCovers backs downfield

Off the report this week

ClearedJalyx HuntLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedJonathan GreenardLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedNolan SmithLB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2729Show

WAS · Washington Commanders

27 listed

Javon KinlawDT · ankle, kneeOut
Charles OmenihuDE · groin, ankleQuestionable
John BatesTE · shoulderQuestionable
Treylon BurksWR · footQuestionable
Jacoby JonesWR · Not specifiedIR
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · groinIR
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLB · pectoralIR
Jaylin LaneWR · ankleIR
Jer'Zhan NewtonDT · pectoralIR
Laremy TunsilOT · Not specifiedIR
Leo ChenalLB · Not specifiedIR
Malik SpencerSAF · Not specifiedIR
Terry McLaurinWR · kneeIR
Chig OkonkwoTE · Last listed Wk 3: Out (hamstring)—
Deatrich WiseDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (quadricep)—
Frankie LuvuLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
Jayden DanielsQB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
Jordan MageeLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Lucas PatrickC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
Marcus MariotaQB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Nick CrossSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
Percy ButlerSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Rachaad WhiteRB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
Sam CosmiOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion, throat)—
Stefon DiggsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Trey AmosCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tyler OwensDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—

PHI · Philadelphia Eagles

29 listed

Britain CoveyWR · kneeOut
DeVonta SmithWR · hamstringOut
Dontayvion WicksWR · ankleOut
Jihaad CampbellLB · hamstringOut
Jonathan JonesDB · hamstringOut
Andre' SamSAF · Not specifiedIR
Dameon PierceRB · undisclosedIR
Jakorian BennettDB · kneeIR
Jalen HurtsQB · Not specifiedIR
Johnny WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Tank BigsbyRB · Not specifiedIR
Tucker LargeSAF · Not specifiedIR
Will ShipleyRB · Not specifiedIR
A.J. EpenesaLB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (back)—
Andrew MukubaSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Dallas GoedertTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
Drew KendallC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Eli StowersTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (quadricep)Cleared
Fred JohnsonOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
Grant CalcaterraTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
Jalyx HuntLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, ankle)Cleared
Jonathan GreenardLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
Landon DickersonG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, pectoral)Cleared
Marcus EppsSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Out (groin)—
Marquise BrownWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
Michael Carter IICB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (abdomen)Cleared
Nolan SmithLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (concussion)Cleared
Saquon BarkleyRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
Zack BaunLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Rushing Yards, last 1

against the posted 21.5

at SF

38.6vs PHI

Cleared 21.5Under 21.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line21.5

Consensus line: 21.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 38.6; +17.1 on the line
Above the line: 0 of 1; 0% of the sample
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: 13; regular season
Average: 13; −8.5 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	3	0%0/3	0%0/1
Last 5	3	0%0/5	0%0/3
Season	13	0%0/1	——
Last season	5.5	31%5/16	29%2/7

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

1 of 1 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 1; of 1
Average: 13; yards
Median: 13; yards
Above 21.5: 0 of 1; 0% of the sample
vs the full 1: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Rushing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 6	@ SF	13	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

1 played

Week	Opponent	Carries	Rush yds	YPC	Long	Rec	TD
Wk 6	@ SF	5	13	2.6	6	0	0

Comparable players vs Philadelphia

7 of 8

running backs went over their line vs Philadelphia

McNichols this weekLine21.5Nuvela projection38.6

Javonte WilliamsDAL · Week 7Line 64.5155Rush ydsOver 64.5Over+90.5
Chuba HubbardCAR · Week 6Line 70.5120Rush ydsOver 70.5Over+49.5
Bhayshul TutenJAX · Week 5Line 66.572Rush ydsOver 66.5Over+5.5
Kyren WilliamsLA · Week 4Line 59.580Rush ydsOver 59.5Over+20.5
D'Andre SwiftCHI · Week 3Line 60.584Rush ydsOver 60.5Over+23.5
Tony PollardTEN · Week 2Line 40.564Rush ydsOver 40.5Over+23.5
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · Week 1Line 40.563Rush ydsOver 40.5Over+22.5
Rachaad WhiteWAS · Week 1Line 22.522Rush ydsUnder 22.5Under−0.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Philadelphia Eagles defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the run

What Philadelphia Eagles actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees.	27.4	22.1	32nd of 32
Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs.	116.7	91.1	30th of 32
Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded.	4.3	4.1	21st of 32
Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop.	15%	17%	22nd of 32
Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from.	10%	11%	12th of 32
Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box.	9%	23%	31st of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	19.5	24th of 32
RBhis position	21.2	16th of 32
WR	40.1	31st of 32
TE	10.5	7th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rush yds
Chuba Hubbard2026 · Wk 6	120
Kyren Williams2026 · Wk 4	80
Jordan Mason2025 · Wk 7	57
Josh Jacobs2025 · Wk 10	74
Jahmyr Gibbs2025 · Wk 11	39

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 40.5; combined
WAS implied total: 23.25; favored
PHI implied total: 17.25; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 29.9s; seconds / play
Wind: 4 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 54°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 62.8; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 40.2; 64% pass
Red-zone trips: 3; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −1.7; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share18%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %23%

Of the team's dropbacks

Carry share3%

Of the team's rush attempts

RZ touches / g3

Touches inside the opponent's 20, per game

Goal-line carry share25%

Of the team's carries inside the 5

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 18%
Games missed this season: 0

If McNichols sits

If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.

Next up

Austin EkelerRB · 38% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

5 posted · 5 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	20%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	24%	−4%
Rushing Yards	21.5	38.6Nuvela projection	+17.1	0 of 5 incl. 2025	24.5	−3.0
1st TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	7%	−1%
Longest Rush	8.5	5.4Nuvela	−3.1	0 of 5 incl. 2025	9.5	−1.0
Last TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	8%	−2%
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net −3 (range 21.5–25.5)

Wed 8:02 PM24.5opened
Wed 8:03 PM23.5−1.0
Wed 8:40 PM24.5+1.0
Thu 8:40 AM23.5−1.0
Thu 6:19 PM25.5+2.0
Fri 12:21 PM21.5−4.0

Opened 24.5, now 21.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Rushing Yards

7 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	25.5	−120	−110
BetOnline	21.5	−110	−118
BetRivers	20.5	−118	−113
Bovada	21.5	−110	−120
DraftKings	21.5	−107	−117
Fanatics	25.5	−125	−105
FanDuel	21.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Jeremy McNichols's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Jeremy McNichols's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Jeremy McNichols's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Jeremy McNichols's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.