nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Commanders vs Cowboys Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 1:25 PM PT
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Conditions
Indoor · roof closed

The game in numbers

  • -3Pass rate over expected
  • 8thPace rank, slate
  • DomeConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Commanders23.526.2+2.7
Cowboys27.528.3+0.8
Game total51.554.5+3.0

The Commanders carry 77% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

146 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props142

Commanders · Away7 players

RECEPTIONS
1.5MARKET+0.9GAP2.4Tank01 projection
Actual 6.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
21.5MARKET+5.4In line with market26.9Tank01 projection
Actual 43.0 · final resultRUSH ATTEMPTS
6.5MARKET · 1 BOOK−0.6In line with market5.9Tank01 projection
Actual 7.0 · final resultRUSH + REC YARDS
38.5MARKET+1.5In line with market40.0Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 83.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
12.5MARKET+0.6In line with market13.1Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 40.0 · final result1ST TD
7%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
32%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
8%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Cowboys · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 19 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
51.5MARKET+3.0GAP54.554.6
Season range 46-48
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
DAL by 3.5MARKET+1.5GAP2.0DAL by 2.0
Season range 2-8

Team props2

Commanders · Away1 market

CommandersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET+2.7GAP26.3Nuvela
Season range 22-22

Cowboys · Home1 market

CowboysTEAM TOTAL POINTS
27.5MARKET+0.8GAP28.3Nuvela
Season range 20-20