RB · Washington Commanders
Austin Ekeler
vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4 · Neutral site
- Line
- —
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela
- 1.4
- our projection
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked
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- Markets posted
- 0 of 9
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rushing Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 1st TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 640 games−0.1
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 640 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 638 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 640 games0
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards
No games played yet this season.
- Consensus line
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- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 1.4
- Above the line
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- vs closing lines
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- no closing lines
- Median
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- regular season
- Average
- —
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 21.5 | —— | 50%1/2 |
| Last 5 | 21.5 | —— | 50%1/2 |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 21.5 | —— | 50%1/2 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to split.
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
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- Games missed this season
- —
Workload dependencies
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt60% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Rachaad White28% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Kaytron Allen12% of the backfield carries · Shares his room — every snap here is one out of his own carries.
- Jacoby JonesWR · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Jeremy McNicholsRB · Same room — his availability swings the carries in play.Ir
- Ben SinnottTE · torso · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Questionable
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
WAS · Washington Commanders
IND · Indianapolis Colts
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 20
- 13 WAS · 7 IND
- Ruled out
- 8
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 12
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 3
- Jacoby Jones, Jeremy McNichols +1
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
3 names on these lists reach him directly. Jacoby Jones, Jeremy McNichols +1 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 8 ruled out and 12 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 1.4. IND ranks 3rd of 32 in loaded boxes (8+ defenders) and 27th in rushing yards allowed. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
2 factors in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- WAS implied total
- 22
- underdog
- IND implied total
- 25.5
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 28.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Neutral site
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 66
- 3-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 38.7
- 59% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.3
- 3-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.4
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Indianapolis Colts defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Indianapolis Colts actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 24 | 22.2 | 21st of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 114 | 91.6 | 27th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.8 | 4.1 | 27th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing — the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 11% | 16% | 27th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards — where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 12% | 11% | 21st of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 45% | 22% | 3rd of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 21.9 | 28th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 28.1 | 28th of 32 |
| WR | 35 | 20th of 32 |
| TE | 17.5 | 26th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson2025 · Wk 10 | 84 |
| Kenneth Walker III2026 · Wk 2 | 117 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 16 | 117 |
| De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 1 | 55 |
| Kareem Hunt2025 · Wk 12 | 104 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
No games played yet this season.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.