nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 3 · THURSDAY · FINAL

Falcons vs Packers Player Props

Kickoff
Thu, Sep 24 · 5:15 PM PT
Venue
Lambeau Field
Conditions
Outdoor · 61F, 5 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -8.7Pass rate over expected
  • 8thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Falcons18.518.7+0.2
Packers24.524.0−0.5
Game total43.542.7−0.8

The Packers carry 71% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

152 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props148

Falcons · Away8 players

RECEIVING YARDS
37.5MARKET−6.9WIDE30.6Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 19.0 · final resultRUSH + REC YARDS
122.5MARKET−11.7MODERATE110.8Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 213.0 · final resultRECEPTIONS
4.5MARKET−0.3In line with market4.2Nuvela
Actual 2.0 · final resultRUSHING YARDS
78.5MARKET+1.7In line with market80.2Tank01 projection
Actual 194.0 · final resultRUSH ATTEMPTS
18.5MARKET0.0In line with market18.5Tank01 projection
Actual 29.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
15.5MARKET+5.7WIDE21.2Nuvela
Actual 55.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
15.5MARKET+2.1MODERATE17.6Nuvela
Actual 17.0 · final result1ST TD
20%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
59%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Scored · final resultLAST TD
17%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Yes · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 4 players · 12 props

Packers · Home9 players

Depth and touchdown only · 4 players · 12 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
43.5MARKET−0.8GAP42.742.7
Season range 33-61
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
GB by 4.5MARKET+0.8GAP5.3GB by 5.4
Season range 3-31

Team props2

Falcons · Away1 market

FalconsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
18.5MARKET+0.2GAP18.7Nuvela
Season range 3-13

Packers · Home1 market

PackersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
24.5MARKET−0.5GAP24.0Nuvela
Season range 20-22