NFC South · 3–4
Atlanta Falcons
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Nov 1 · 10:00 AM PTUnderdog by 2.5
- Line
- 21.5
- Team Total
- Nuvela
- 22.1
- this week
- Difference
- +0.6
- +2.8% on the line
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 4
- Line since open
- level, from 21.5
- Projections updated
All team markets
Every featured team market this week, with how often the club cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L7 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 | +2.8 | +0.3 | 3 of 7 | +1.5 | +1.0 |
| Game Total | 43.5 | 46.9 | +3.4 | 5 of 7 | 45.5 | −2.0 |
| Moneyline | 47% | 42% | −4.8 | 3 of 7 | 49% | −2.3 |
| Team Total | 21.5 | 22.1 | +0.6 | 5 of 7 | 21.5 | level |
What these figures mean
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Oct 27, 2:03 PM PT21.5opened
- Oct 30, 11:01 AM PT21.5held
Opened 21.5, now 21.5. Where a move has a reason beside it, that reason is the thing to check before the gap is one.
Moves with this
- Spread0.86strong
- Game Total0.72strong
- Moneyline0.61strong
- TB team total-0.32mild
Correlation over the club's last two seasons (24 games). A club's markets are one game read several ways, so these run higher than a player's; a spread and a moneyline are close to the same position on the game.
Recent output relative to the line
Regular season · every game against the current line. Playoff games are listed separately.
Team Total, last 7
Cleared 21.5Under 21.5The projection this week
- The line
- 21.5
- from the game line
- Nuvela
- 22.1
- +0.6 on the line
- Above the line
- 5 of 7
- 71% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 7
- each week's own close
- Median
- 23
- regular season
- Season average
- 24.4
- 7 games played
Distribution by time window
The same games cut five ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above the line %vs current line | Above the line %vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 23 | 100%3/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 29 | 100%5/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Last 10 | 24.5 | 70%7/10 | 50%5/10 |
| Season | 23 | 71%5/7 | 43%3/7 |
| Last Season | 24 | 65%11/17 | 65%11/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, how the game was scripted, and the defence faced. The rate and median recompute live.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 7
- of 7
- Average
- 24.4
- points
- Median team total
- 23
- points
- Cleared
- 5 of 7
- 71%
- vs the full 7
- 0.0
- points
| Week | Opponent | Team Total | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ PIT | 13 | 17 | −4.0 |
| Week 2 | vs CAR | 3 | 20.5 | −17.5 |
| Week 3 | @ GB | 35 | 19.5 | +15.5 |
| Week 4 | @ NO | 45 | 23 | +22.0 |
| Week 5 | vs BAL | 23 | 24 | −1.0 |
| Week 6 | vs CHI | 23 | 25 | −2.0 |
| Week 7 | vs SF | 29 | 23.5 | +5.5 |
Where the line sits
The line against this season's numbers. The decision is yours.
Market read
- Current line
- 21.5
- Season average
- 24.4
- vs the line
- +2.9
- Market rank
- 10thin scoring offense
- Key opponent input
- TB allow 21.6
Game context
A team total is a game total split by the spread, so both halves and the script that decides them belong on one line.
- Game total
- 43.5
- combined
- ATL spread
- +2.5
- underdog
- ATL implied total
- 20.5
- their half
- TB implied total
- 23
- the other half
- Projected script
- Close
- underdog on the road
- Wind
- 10 mph
- 73°F
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59.7
- ATL, from pace
- Drives
- 11.3
- 8th in the league
- Points per drive
- 2.16
- needs 1.9 for the line
- Red zone trips
- 3.6
- per game
- Seconds per play
- 31.4
- 8th slowest
A team total is drives times points per drive. This is the volume; the rates are in How they score, below.
How they score
How the club scores, each rate against the whole it is a share of.
Season rates
What Tampa Bay Buccaneers allows
Their season on defence, and the split that applies to this fixture, which sets how many points there are to score.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence
| Measure | Figure | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / game | 21.6 | 14th |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.91 | 10th |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 59% | 10th |
| Drives faced / game | 11.3 | 27th |
| Seconds per play | 30.2 | 13th |
Home and away
- Allowed at home
- 22.2
- Allowed on the road
- 20.7
- This game
- At home
- Difference
- +1.5 a game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers host ATL, so the home figure is the one that applies: 1.5 points a game softer than their other split.
Game log · season
Most recent first, with the team total each week actually carried.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Team | Opp | Margin | Total | Team total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 7 | vs SF | 29 | 20 | +9 | 49 | 23.5 |
| Week 6 | vs CHI | 23 | 31 | −8 | 54 | 25 |
| Week 5 | vs BAL | 23 | 30 | −7 | 53 | 24 |
| Week 4 | @ NO | 45 | 24 | +21 | 69 | 23 |
| Week 3 | @ GB | 35 | 14 | +21 | 49 | 19.5 |
| Week 2 | vs CAR | 3 | 34 | −31 | 37 | 20.5 |
| Week 1 | @ PIT | 13 | 20 | −7 | 33 | 17 |
Team prop odds
Team Total 21.5: over/under odds across the market. 3 books are on the consensus number.
Team Total
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 20.5 | −115 | −102 |
| BetOnline | 21.5 | +100 | −130 |
| FanDuel | 21.5 | −106 | −120 |
| Caesars | 21.5 | −102 | −132 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API (market team_total), shown for research only. Book quotes observed Oct 30, 11:01 AM PT. 1 of 4 books below are on a different number than 21.5, so their prices are not comparable to it. Opening line posted Oct 27, 2:03 PM PT. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and does not accept bets.