RB · Green Bay Packers
MarShawn Lloyd
Updated
MarShawn Lloyd's rushing yards line is 9.5 for Week 7 at Detroit Lions (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 23.8. 5 of 10 markets posted.
@ Detroit Lions · Week 7 · Dome
- Line
- 9.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 23.8
- this week
- Difference
- +14.3
- +151%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 5 of 10
- Line since open
- −2.0, from 11.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 21% | Market only | — | 2 of 5 | 44% | −23% |
| Rushing Yards | 9.5 | 23.8Nuvela projection | +14.3 | 5 of 5 | 11.5 | −2.0 |
| 1st TD | 4% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 9% | −4% |
| Longest Rush | 4.5 | 6.3Nuvela | +1.8 | 4 of 5 | 4.5 | level |
| Last TD | 5% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 11% | −6% |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 3:36 PM11.5opened
- Wed 8:08 PM15.5+4.0
- Wed 8:09 PM14.5−1.0
- Thu 3:37 AM13.5−1.0
- Thu 3:37 AM12.5−1.0
- Fri 3:00 PM9.5−3.0
Opened 11.5, now 9.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 9.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 23.8
- +14.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 6 of 6
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 16.5
- regular season
- Average
- 20.3
- +10.8 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 13 | 100%3/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 13 | 100%5/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 16.5 | 100%6/6 | 33%2/6 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 20.3
- yards
- Median
- 16.5
- yards
- Above 9.5
- 6 of 6
- 100% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ MIN | 37 | 44.5 | −7.5 |
| Week 2 | @ NYJ | 20 | 49.5 | −29.5 |
| Week 3 | vs ATL | 11 | 24.5 | −13.5 |
| Week 4 | @ TB | 13 | 23.5 | −10.5 |
| Week 5 | vs CHI | 31 | 27.5 | +3.5 |
| Week 6 | vs DAL | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 40%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
GB · Green Bay Packers
DET · Detroit Lions
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 53.5
- combined
- GB implied total
- 25
- underdog
- DET implied total
- 28.5
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 29.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59.7
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 40
- 67% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +3.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Detroit Lions defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Detroit Lions actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 19.8 | 21.9 | 7th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 84.4 | 89.5 | 15th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.3 | 4.1 | 23rd of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 17% | 17% | 15th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 14% | 11% | 28th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 46% | 23% | 1st of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 27.4 | 32nd of 32 |
| RBhis position | 18.7 | 8th of 32 |
| WR | 40.8 | 31st of 32 |
| TE | 31.9 | 32nd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Rachaad White2025 · Wk 7 | 38 |
| Chuba Hubbard2026 · Wk 4 | 122 |
| Saquon Barkley2025 · Wk 11 | 83 |
| Javonte Williams2025 · Wk 14 | 67 |
| Isiah Pacheco2025 · Wk 6 | 51 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs DAL | 8 | 10 | 1.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs CHI | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 10 | 1 | 2 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 13.5 | −111 | −120 |
| BetOnline | 9.5 | −120 | −108 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada | 9.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 | −118 | −106 |
| FanDuel | 10.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.