QB · Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
Updated
Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards line is 228.5 for Week 7 vs San Francisco 49ers (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 233.0. 12 of 13 markets posted.
vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7
- Line
- 228.5
- Passing Yards
- Tank01 projection
- 233.0
- this week
- Difference
- +4.5
- +2%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 12 of 13
- Line since open
- +1.0, from 227.5
- Projections updated
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 228.5 | 233.0Tank01 projection | +4.5 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 227.5 | +1.0 |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | Market only | — | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 11% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 9% | +1% |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | Market only | — | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 0.5 | level |
| Rushing Yards | 0.5 | 4.5Nuvela projection | +4.0 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 1.5 | −1.0 |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.8Tank01 projection | +0.3 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 31.5 | level |
| Completions | 19.5 | 19.8Tank01 projection | +0.3 | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 19.5 | level |
| Pass + Rush Yards | 232.5 | 241.9Tank01 projection | +9.4 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 232.5 | level |
| Longest Completion | 34.5 | 37.6Nuvela | +3.1 | 4 of 4 | 34.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2% | level |
| Longest Rush | 2.5 | 7.1Nuvela | +4.6 | 4 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2.5 | level |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Tue 8:03 PM227.5opened
- Tue 8:03 PM227.50.0
- Wed 10:06 AM228.5+1.0
- Wed 10:07 AM229.5+1.0
- Wed 10:07 AM227.5−2.0
- Fri 3:00 PM228.5+1.0
Opened 227.5, now 228.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 732 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 732 games+0.5
- The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 730 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Passing Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- 228.5
- yards
- Tank01 projection
- 233.0
- +4.5 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 4
- 50% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 4
- each week's own close
- Median
- 232.5
- regular season
- Average
- 236
- +7.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 225 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 225 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 232.5 | 50%2/4 | 50%2/4 |
| Last season | 221 | 44%4/9 | 44%4/9 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 236
- yards
- Median
- 232.5
- yards
- Above 228.5
- 2 of 4
- 50% of the sample
- vs the full 4
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Passing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ GB | 256 | 204.5 | +51.5 |
| Week 4 | @ NO | 223 | 223.5 | −0.5 |
| Week 5 | vs BAL | 240 | 215.5 | +24.5 |
| Week 6 | vs CHI | 225 | 236.5 | −11.5 |
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 100%
- Games missed this season
- 0
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
ATL · Atlanta Falcons
SF · San Francisco 49ers
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 49.5
- combined
- ATL implied total
- 23.5
- underdog
- SF implied total
- 26
- favored
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 31.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 66°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59.8
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 32.3
- 54% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.7
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −7.7
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How San Francisco 49ers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the pass
What San Francisco 49ers actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees: the base under every passing prop. | 35.7 | 33.7 | 22nd of 32 |
| Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks. | 225.7 | 236.1 | 11th of 32 |
| Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on. | 6.3 | 7 | 9th of 32 |
| Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt. | 66% | 64% | 23rd of 32 |
| Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line. | 7% | 6% | 18th of 32 |
| Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced: the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards. | 27% | 23% | 7th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 9% | 11% | 11th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QBhis position | 14.4 | 8th of 32 |
| RB | 23.4 | 23rd of 32 |
| WR | 30.1 | 11th of 32 |
| TE | 9.2 | 4th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Pass yds |
|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett2026 · Wk 3 | 280 |
| Jayden Daniels2026 · Wk 6 | 300 |
| Sam Darnold2026 · Wk 5 | 195 |
| Jaxson Dart2025 · Wk 9 | 191 |
| Trevor Lawrence2025 · Wk 4 | 174 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Att | Comp | Pass yds | Long | TD | INT | Rush yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs CHI | 33 | 19 | 225 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Wk 5 | vs BAL | 32 | 19 | 240 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Wk 4 | @ NO | 20 | 15 | 223 | 37 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 25 | 18 | 256 | 68 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Passing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 225.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 236.5 | −115 | −112 |
| BetRivers | 230.5 | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada | 228.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 228.5 | −112 | −112 |
| Fanatics | 225.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 227.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.