Where do Jahan Dotson's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Jahan Dotson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Jahan Dotson's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Jahan Dotson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Atlanta Falcons#4

Jahan Dotson

Updated Oct 30, 3:29 AM PT

Jahan Dotson's receiving yards line is 25.5 for Week 8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 22.9. 6 of 8 markets posted.

@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8

Line: 25.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 22.9; this week
Difference: −2.6; −10%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:08 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 8
Line since open: +1.0, from 24.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:09 PM PT

Highlights

Line25.5Up 1 since it opened at 24.5 on Tuesday, after swinging between 21.5 and 25.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 25.5 receiving yards

37.2A GAMEHe has averaged about 37 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 25.5.

Under

Why he could fall short of 25.5

16.9YDS DOWNFIELDHis average target is 16.9 yards downfield, and Tampa Bay allows a deep throw on 8% of attempts, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Atlanta is without receiver Beaux Collins, so more of the receiver targets go to Dotson. Across from him, Tampa Bay has nobody out who usually covers receivers.

DotsonNo injury designation

Around himAtlanta Falcons

2 of 28 touch Dotson

This week

QuestionableOlamide ZaccheausWR · shoulderFrees targets at his spot

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRBeaux CollinsWR · hipFrees targets at his spot

Across from himTampa Bay Buccaneers

3 of 23 touch Dotson

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJosh HayesDB · kneeDeep coverage
IRXavier WilliamsSAFDeep coverage

Off the report this week

ClearedAntoine Winfield Jr.SAF · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2823Show

ATL · Atlanta Falcons

28 listed

Brian RobinsonRB · hamstringOut
Avieon TerrellCB · backQuestionable
Billy Bowman Jr.CB · hamstringQuestionable
Charles SnowdenDE · backQuestionable
Divine DeabloLB · forearmQuestionable
Olamide ZaccheausWR · shoulderQuestionable
Samson EbukamDE · hamstringQuestionable
Anterio ThompsonDT · Not specifiedPUP
Beaux CollinsWR · hipIR
Cameron WilliamsOT · ankleIR
Da'Shawn HandDE · Not specifiedIR
DeAngelo MaloneLB · Not specifiedPUP
JD BertrandLB · Not specifiedIR
Jalon WalkerLB · Not specifiedIR
Michael JerrellOT · bicepsIR
Storm NortonOT · Not specifiedPUP
Trey SermonRB · Not specifiedIR
Yasir AbdullahLB · Not specifiedIR
James Pearce Jr.DESuspended
A.J. TerrellCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (groin)Cleared
C.J. HendersonCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (groin)Cleared
Chris LindstromG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
Gervon Dexter Sr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
Jake MatthewsOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin)—
Kendal DanielsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Michael Penix Jr.QB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
Tua TagovailoaQB · Last listed Wk 2: Doubtful (oblique)—
Za'Darius SmithDE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared

TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

23 listed

Emeka EgbukaWR · concussion, footOut
Luke GoedekeOTOut last week
Kenny GainwellRB · hipQuestionable
Christian RozeboomLB · fingerIR
Dennis HoustonWR · Not specifiedIR
Jalen McMillanWR · Not specifiedIR
Josh HayesDB · kneeIR
Mohamed KamaraLB · Not specifiedIR
Xavier WilliamsSAF · Not specifiedIR
Antoine Winfield Jr.SAF · Last listed Wk 7: Out (rib)Cleared
Ayden GarnesCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Baker MayfieldQB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (thumb)Cleared
Benjamin MorrisonCB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (quadricep)—
David SillsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
Jacob ParrishCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Josiah TrotterLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Justin SkuleOT · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (oblique)—
Ko KieftTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
Miles KillebrewSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle, foot)—
Rueben Bain Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin, shoulder)—
Sean TuckerRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
SirVocea DennisLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle, foot)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 7

against the posted 25.5

at PIT

CAR

at GB

at NO

BAL

CHI

22.9vs TB

Cleared 25.5Under 25.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line25.5

Consensus line: 25.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 22.9; −2.6 on the line
Above the line: 3 of 7; 43% of the sample
vs closing lines: 4 of 7; each week's own close
Median: 19; regular season
Average: 34.6; +9.1 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	54	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	54	60%3/5	60%3/5
Season	19	43%3/7	57%4/7
Last season	12	27%4/15	50%7/14

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

7 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 7; of 7
Average: 34.6; yards
Median: 19; yards
Above 25.5: 3 of 7; 43% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ PIT	19	14.5	+4.5
Week 2	vs CAR	11	17.5	−6.5
Week 3	@ GB	11	17.5	−6.5
Week 4	@ NO	54	18.5	+35.5
Week 5	vs BAL	54	20.5	+33.5
Week 6	vs CHI	87	23.5	+63.5
Week 7	vs SF	6	27.5	−21.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 7	vs SF	3	1	6	6	—	0
Wk 6	vs CHI	5	3	87	41	17.6	1
Wk 5	vs BAL	4	2	54	36	—	0
Wk 4	@ NO	3	2	54	31	—	1
Wk 3	@ GB	3	1	11	11	—	0
Wk 2	vs CAR	4	2	11	8	—	0
Wk 1	@ PIT	3	1	19	19	—	0

Comparable players vs Tampa Bay

11 of 17

wide receivers went under their line vs Tampa Bay

Dotson this weekLine25.5Nuvela projection22.9

Jalen CokerCAR · Week 7Line 66.59Rec ydsUnder 66.5Under−57.5
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · Week 7Line 70.540Rec ydsUnder 70.5Under−30.5
DK MetcalfPIT · Week 6Line 50.593Rec ydsOver 50.5Over+42.5
Germie BernardPIT · Week 6Line 44.587Rec ydsOver 44.5Over+42.5
CeeDee LambDAL · Week 5Line 84.59Rec ydsUnder 84.5Under−75.5
George PickensDAL · Week 5Line 64.5130Rec ydsOver 64.5Over+65.5
Ryan FlournoyDAL · Week 5Line 31.590Rec ydsOver 31.5Over+58.5
Christian WatsonGB · Week 4Line 67.547Rec ydsUnder 67.5Under−20.5
Matthew GoldenGB · Week 4Line 56.521Rec ydsUnder 56.5Under−35.5
Jauan JenningsMIN · Week 3Line 14.51Rec ydsUnder 14.5Under−13.5
Jordan AddisonMIN · Week 3Line 36.590Rec ydsOver 36.5Over+53.5
Denzel BostonCLE · Week 2Line 29.595Rec ydsOver 29.5Over+65.5
Jerry JeudyCLE · Week 2Line 25.50Rec ydsUnder 25.5Under−25.5
KC ConcepcionCLE · Week 2Line 35.528Rec ydsUnder 35.5Under−7.5
Andrei IosivasCIN · Week 1Line 13.512Rec ydsUnder 13.5Under−1.5
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · Week 1Line 85.512Rec ydsUnder 85.5Under−73.5
Tee HigginsCIN · Week 1Line 60.559Rec ydsUnder 60.5Under−1.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Tampa Bay Buccaneers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	18.7	18.4	18th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	63%	62%	20th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	134.7	148.8	10th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	7.2	8.1	7th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	9.4	11.1	4th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	5	4.3	26th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	8%	11%	3rd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	13.5	6th of 32
RB	17.9	4th of 32
WRhis position	29.6	9th of 32
TE	16.2	25th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Garrett Wilson2025 · Wk 3	84
Jordan Addison2026 · Wk 3	90
A.J. Brown2025 · Wk 4	7
DK Metcalf2026 · Wk 6	93
Casey Washington2025 · Wk 1	33

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 43.5; combined
ATL implied total: 20.5; underdog
TB implied total: 23; favored
Projected script: Close; tight spread
Pace: 31.4s; seconds / play
Wind: 10 mph; Rain
Conditions: 73°F; outdoor · 100% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 59.7; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 32.6; 55% pass
Red-zone trips: 3; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −6.7; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share68%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %84%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share13%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share33%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share14%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g3.6

Targets per game

Yards / route run1.6

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT16.9

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 56%
Games missed this season: 0

If Dotson sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Zachariah BranchWR · 35% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 2 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	25.5	22.9Nuvela projection	−2.6	3 of 5	24.5	+1.0
Receptions	2.5	2.1Nuvela projection	−0.4	1 of 5	1.5	+1.0
Anytime TD	22%	Market only	—	2 of 5	19%	+3%
Longest Reception	16.5	18.2Nuvela	+1.7	3 of 5	15.5	+1.0
1st TD	5%	Market only	—	0 of 5	4%	level
Last TD	7%	Market only	—	0 of 5	5%	+2%
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net +1 (range 21.5–25.5)

Tue 8:03 PM24.5opened
Thu 2:04 AM22.5−2.0
Thu 4:59 PM21.5−1.0
Thu 11:00 PM22.5+1.0
Thu 11:00 PM24.5+2.0
Fri 11:01 AM25.5+1.0

Opened 24.5, now 25.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

7 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	23.5	−115	−115
BetOnline	25.5	−114	−114
BetRivers	22.5	−177	+120
Bovada	25.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	25.5	−111	−113
Fanatics	25.5	−120	−110
FanDuel	25.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Jahan Dotson's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Jahan Dotson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Jahan Dotson's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Jahan Dotson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.