Where do Deshaun Watson's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Deshaun Watson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Deshaun Watson's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Deshaun Watson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

QB · Cleveland Browns#4

Deshaun Watson

Updated Oct 30, 1:45 PM PT

Deshaun Watson's passing yards line is 205.5 for Week 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 200.6. 13 of 13 markets posted.

@ Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8

Line: 205.5; Passing Yards
Nuvela projection: 200.6; this week
Difference: −4.9; −2%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 13 of 13
Line since open: +1.0, from 204.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line205.5Up 1 since it opened at 204.5 on Wednesday, after swinging between 200.5 and 210.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 205.5 passing yards

2OUT FOR PITPittsburgh is without cornerback Brandin Echols and defensive back Doneiko Slaughter.

Under

Why he could fall short of 205.5

18CLE POINTSCleveland's team total is 18 points.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Cleveland is missing one tight end, which leaves Watson fewer targets to throw to. Across from him, Pittsburgh is missing three defensive linemen, the players who usually rush the passer.

WatsonNo injury designation

Around himCleveland Browns

3 of 30 touch Watson

Out long term · already in his recent games

PUPJoe RoyerTEOne fewer target for him to throw to
IRRaheim SandersRBChanges his backfield
IRTeven JenkinsG · backWeakens his protection

Across from himPittsburgh Steelers

8 of 22 touch Watson

This week

OutBrandin EcholsCB · hamstringIn pass coverage
OutDoneiko SlaughterDB · hamstringIn pass coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDaequan HardyCBIn pass coverage
IRDerrick HarmonDTRushes the passer
PUPDonte KentCBIn pass coverage

Show 2 more

IRLogan LeeDTRushes the passer
IRSebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsRushes the passer

Off the report this week

ClearedDeShon ElliottSAF · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3022Show

CLE · Cleveland Browns

30 listed

Dillon GabrielQBOut last week
Daniel ThomasSAF · ankleQuestionable
Myles HardenCB · hamstringQuestionable
Alex WrightDE · Not specifiedIR
Damarri MathisDB · Not specifiedIR
Edefuan UlofoshioLB · Not specifiedIR
Elijah ChatmanDT · Not specifiedIR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Not specifiedPUP
Joe RoyerTE · Not specifiedPUP
Kalia DavisDT · quadricepIR
Raheim SandersRB · Not specifiedIR
Teven JenkinsG · backIR
Bub MeansWRPractice squad
John Saunders Jr.SAFInactive
Audric EstiméRB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (thigh)—
Carsen RyanTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (calf)—
Carson SchwesingerLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Denzel WardCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hand)Cleared
Derek BarnettDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Dylan SampsonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Elgton JenkinsC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
Grant DelpitSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Mason GrahamDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee, ankle)—
Mike Hall Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Noah IgbinogheneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hand)—
Parker BrailsfordC · Last listed Wk 1: Q (thumb)—
Quincy WilliamsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Quinshon JudkinsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tylan WallaceWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
Tyson CampbellCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q—

PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers

22 listed

Brandin EcholsCB · hamstringOut
Doneiko SlaughterDB · hamstringOut
Ben SkowronekWR · calfQuestionable
Cole BurgessWR · Not specifiedIR
Daequan HardyCB · Not specifiedIR
Derrick HarmonDT · Not specifiedIR
Donte KentCB · Not specifiedPUP
Gennings DunkerG · Not specifiedIR
Jack DriscollOT · Not specifiedIR
Logan LeeDT · Not specifiedIR
Michael PittmanWR · Not specifiedIR
Roman WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsIR
DeShon ElliottSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Jalen RamseyCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
Jamel DeanCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Jaylen WarrenRB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Keeanu BentonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Pat FreiermuthTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)—
Rico DowdleRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Troy FautanuOT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (ankle)—
Yahya BlackDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Passing Yards, last 7

against the posted 205.5

205

at JAX

238

at TB

144

CAR

268

PIT

155

at NYJ

164

BAL

308

at TEN

200.6vs PIT

Cleared 205.5Under 205.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line205.5

Consensus line: 205.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 200.6; −4.9 on the line
Above the line: 3 of 7; 43% of the sample
vs closing lines: 4 of 7; each week's own close
Median: 205; regular season
Average: 211.7; +6.2 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	164	33%1/3	33%1/3
Last 5	164	40%2/5	40%2/5
Season	205	43%3/7	57%4/7
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

7 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 7; of 7
Average: 211.7; yards
Median: 205; yards
Above 205.5: 3 of 7; 43% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Passing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ JAX	205	176.5	+28.5
Week 2	@ TB	238	175.5	+62.5
Week 3	vs CAR	144	187.5	−43.5
Week 4	vs PIT	268	225.5	+42.5
Week 5	@ NYJ	155	191.5	−36.5
Week 6	vs BAL	164	203.5	−39.5
Week 7	@ TEN	308	210.5	+97.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Att	Comp	Pass yds	Long	TD	INT	Rush yds
Wk 7	@ TEN	36	25	308	36	0	1	19
Wk 6	vs BAL	26	16	164	33	0	0	29
Wk 5	@ NYJ	33	15	155	30	1	0	40
Wk 4	vs PIT	33	24	268	60	1	1	22
Wk 3	vs CAR	30	16	144	28	2	0	45
Wk 2	@ TB	30	24	238	55	2	0	22
Wk 1	@ JAX	22	16	205	46	1	1	38

Comparable players vs Pittsburgh

3 of 6

quarterbacks went over their line vs Pittsburgh, and 3 went under

Watson this weekLine205.5Nuvela projection200.6

Tyler ShoughNO · Week 7Line 221.5278Pass ydsOver 221.5Over+56.5
Jalon DanielsTB · Week 6Line 172.5164Pass ydsUnder 172.5Under−8.5
Daniel JonesIND · Week 5Line 208.5267Pass ydsOver 208.5Over+58.5
Joe BurrowCIN · Week 3Line 253.5282Pass ydsOver 253.5Over+28.5
Drake MayeNE · Week 2Line 223.5208Pass ydsUnder 223.5Under−15.5
Cooper RushATL · Week 1Line 174.5143Pass ydsUnder 174.5Under−31.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Pittsburgh Steelers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the pass

What Pittsburgh Steelers actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees: the base under every passing prop.	34.1	33.5	19th of 32
Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks.	230	235.8	13th of 32
Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on.	6.7	7.1	14th of 32
Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt.	64%	64%	15th of 32
Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line.	7%	6%	14th of 32
Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced: the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards.	19%	22%	24th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	11%	11%	20th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QBhis position	12.2	4th of 32
RB	20.2	12th of 32
WR	30.5	14th of 32
TE	10.9	9th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Pass yds
Josh Allen2025 · Wk 13	123
Joe Burrow2026 · Wk 3	282
Jalon Daniels2026 · Wk 6	164
Sam Darnold2025 · Wk 2	295
Justin Fields2025 · Wk 1	218

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 39.5; combined
CLE implied total: 18; underdog
PIT implied total: 21.5; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 29.9s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 66°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 59.3; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 37.3; 63% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.3; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −1.1; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Dropback %62%

Of the team's dropbacks he's on the field for

Pass att / g30

Pass attempts per game

Rush att / g6.9

Rush attempts per game

aDOT7.4

Average depth of target, in yards

Pressure rate25%

Dropbacks under pressure

Scramble rate9%

Dropbacks that turn into scrambles

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 100%
Games missed this season: 0

If Watson sits

If a quarterback sits, the whole passing game moves down together: every receiver's range drops with the backup.

Next up

Shedeur SandersQB

Where his work goes

Every pass catcher's number moves down with the backup, so there is no single winner to show.

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

13 posted · 0 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Passing Yards	205.5	200.6Nuvela projection	−4.9	2 of 5	204.5	+1.0
Passing TDs	0.5	Market only	—	3 of 5	0.5	level
Anytime TD	19%	Market only	—	1 of 5	18%	+1%
Interceptions	0.5	Market only	—	2 of 5	0.5	level
Rushing Yards	25.5	25.1Nuvela projection	−0.4	3 of 5	25.5	level
Pass Attempts	30.5	30.4Nuvela projection	−0.1	3 of 5	31.5	−1.0
Completions	19.5	19.4Nuvela projection	−0.1	2 of 5	19.5	level
Pass + Rush Yards	236.5	225.7Nuvela projection	−10.8	2 of 5	234.5	+2.0
Rush Attempts	5.5	5.7Nuvela projection	+0.2	4 of 5	5.5	level
Longest Completion	33.5	34.7Nuvela	+1.2	2 of 5	33.5	level
1st TD	5%	Market only	—	0 of 5	5%	level
Last TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5	5%	+1%
Longest Rush	9.5	8.3Nuvela	−1.2	3 of 5	9.5	level

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net +1 (range 204.5–210.5)

Wed 2:03 PM204.5opened
Wed 2:03 PM200.5−4.0
Thu 2:03 AM202.5+2.0
Thu 2:04 AM210.5+8.0
Thu 10:59 AM204.5−6.0
Fri 11:01 AM205.5+1.0

Opened 204.5, now 205.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.5
The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Passing Yards

6 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	204.5	−115	−115
BetOnline	208.5	−116	−111
BetRivers	204.5	−117	−114
DraftKings	206.5	−113	−111
Fanatics	205.5	−120	−110
FanDuel	210.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Deshaun Watson's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Deshaun Watson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Deshaun Watson's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Deshaun Watson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.