Where do Josh Williams's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Josh Williams's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Josh Williams's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Josh Williams's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers#18

Josh Williams

Josh Williams (RB, TB) props for Week 8 vs Atlanta Falcons: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8

Line: —; Rushing Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 0 of 9
Projections updated: Oct 30, 3:00 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Tampa Bay is missing three receivers, which frees targets. Across from him, Atlanta is missing four linebackers and three defensive linemen, the players who usually stop the run.

WilliamsNo injury designation

Around himTampa Bay Buccaneers

5 of 23 touch Williams

This week

OutEmeka EgbukaWR · concussion, footFrees targets
QuestionableKenny GainwellRB · hipFrees carries and catches out of the backfield

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDennis HoustonWRFrees targets
IRJalen McMillanWRFrees targets

Off the report this week

ClearedBaker MayfieldQB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himAtlanta Falcons

13 of 28 touch Williams

This week

SuspendedJames Pearce Jr.DEDefends the run
QuestionableCharles SnowdenDE · backDefends the run
QuestionableDivine DeabloLB · forearmTackles and covers backs
QuestionableSamson EbukamDE · hamstringDefends the run

Out long term · already in his recent games

PUPAnterio ThompsonDTDefends the run
IRDa'Shawn HandDEDefends the run
PUPDeAngelo MaloneLBTackles and covers backs

Show 3 more

IRJD BertrandLBTackles and covers backs
IRJalon WalkerLBTackles and covers backs
IRYasir AbdullahLBTackles and covers backs

Off the report this week

ClearedGervon Dexter Sr.DT · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedKendal DanielsLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedZa'Darius SmithDE · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2328Show

TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

23 listed

Emeka EgbukaWR · concussion, footOut
Luke GoedekeOTOut last week
Kenny GainwellRB · hipQuestionable
Christian RozeboomLB · fingerIR
Dennis HoustonWR · Not specifiedIR
Jalen McMillanWR · Not specifiedIR
Josh HayesDB · kneeIR
Mohamed KamaraLB · Not specifiedIR
Xavier WilliamsSAF · Not specifiedIR
Antoine Winfield Jr.SAF · Last listed Wk 7: Out (rib)Cleared
Ayden GarnesCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Baker MayfieldQB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (thumb)Cleared
Benjamin MorrisonCB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (quadricep)—
David SillsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
Jacob ParrishCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Josiah TrotterLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Justin SkuleOT · Last listed Wk 1: Doubtful (oblique)—
Ko KieftTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
Miles KillebrewSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
Rakeem Nunez-RochesDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle, foot)—
Rueben Bain Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (groin, shoulder)—
Sean TuckerRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
SirVocea DennisLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle, foot)—

ATL · Atlanta Falcons

28 listed

Brian RobinsonRB · hamstringOut
Avieon TerrellCB · backQuestionable
Billy Bowman Jr.CB · hamstringQuestionable
Charles SnowdenDE · backQuestionable
Divine DeabloLB · forearmQuestionable
Olamide ZaccheausWR · shoulderQuestionable
Samson EbukamDE · hamstringQuestionable
Anterio ThompsonDT · Not specifiedPUP
Beaux CollinsWR · hipIR
Cameron WilliamsOT · ankleIR
Da'Shawn HandDE · Not specifiedIR
DeAngelo MaloneLB · Not specifiedPUP
JD BertrandLB · Not specifiedIR
Jalon WalkerLB · Not specifiedIR
Michael JerrellOT · bicepsIR
Storm NortonOT · Not specifiedPUP
Trey SermonRB · Not specifiedIR
Yasir AbdullahLB · Not specifiedIR
James Pearce Jr.DESuspended
A.J. TerrellCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (groin)Cleared
C.J. HendersonCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (groin)Cleared
Chris LindstromG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
Gervon Dexter Sr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
Jake MatthewsOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin)—
Kendal DanielsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Michael Penix Jr.QB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
Tua TagovailoaQB · Last listed Wk 2: Doubtful (oblique)—
Za'Darius SmithDE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Rushing Yards

against the posted line

No games played yet this season.

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: —; regular season
Average: —

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	—	——	——
Last 5	—	——	——
Season	—	——	——
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to split.

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

0 played · 1 DNP

Week	Opponent	Carries	Rush yds	YPC	Long	Rec	TD
Wk 1	@ CIN	DNP

Comparable players vs Atlanta

5 of 9

running backs went under their line vs Atlanta

Christian McCaffreySF · Week 7Line 56.539Rush ydsUnder 56.5Under−17.5
Kaelon BlackSF · Week 7Line 28.563Rush ydsOver 28.5Over+34.5
D'Andre SwiftCHI · Week 6Line 63.544Rush ydsUnder 63.5Under−19.5
Roschon JohnsonCHI · Week 6Line 20.551Rush ydsOver 20.5Over+30.5
Derrick HenryBAL · Week 5Line 80.5102Rush ydsOver 80.5Over+21.5
Justice HillBAL · Week 5Line 11.573Rush ydsOver 11.5Over+61.5
Chris BrooksGB · Week 3Line 14.50Rush ydsUnder 14.5Under−14.5
Chuba HubbardCAR · Week 2Line 56.553Rush ydsUnder 56.5Under−3.5
Rico DowdlePIT · Week 1Line 45.515Rush ydsUnder 45.5Under−30.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Atlanta Falcons defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the run

What Atlanta Falcons actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees.	19.9	22.1	6th of 32
Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs.	81.7	91.1	12th of 32
Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded.	4.1	4.1	16th of 32
Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop.	20%	17%	8th of 32
Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from.	9%	11%	9th of 32
Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box.	36%	23%	3rd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	17.6	20th of 32
RBhis position	24.5	25th of 32
WR	34.4	22nd of 32
TE	15.8	23rd of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rush yds
Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 10	244
Breece Hall2025 · Wk 13	68
Audric Estimé2025 · Wk 18	63
TreVeyon Henderson2025 · Wk 9	55
Devin Neal2025 · Wk 12	18

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 43.5; combined
TB implied total: 23; favored
ATL implied total: 20.5; underdog
Projected script: Close; tight spread
Pace: 31.1s; seconds / play
Wind: 10 mph; Rain
Conditions: 73°F; outdoor · 100% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 61.7; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 35.8; 58% pass
Red-zone trips: 3.1; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −5.8; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share0%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %0%

Of the team's dropbacks

Carry share0%

Of the team's rush attempts

RZ touches / g0

Touches inside the opponent's 20, per game

Goal-line carry share0%

Of the team's carries inside the 5

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: —
Games missed this season: 7

If Williams sits

If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.

Next up

Kenny GainwellRB · 23% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

0 posted · 9 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	No line posted yet
Rushing Yards	No line posted yet
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
1st TD	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Longest Rush	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Josh Williams's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Josh Williams's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Josh Williams's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Josh Williams's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.