nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Colts vs Chiefs Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 5:20 PM PT
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 71F, 10 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -2.2Pass rate over expected
  • 10thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Colts19.519.6+0.1
Chiefs26.524.6−1.9
Game total46.544.2−2.3

The Chiefs carry 95% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

145 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props141

Colts · Away7 players

RECEPTIONS
4.5MARKET−1.0WIDE3.5Nuvela
Actual 6.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
42.5MARKET−6.4In line with market36.1Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 21.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
16.5MARKET−0.3GAP16.2Nuvela
Actual 8.0 · final result1ST TD
7%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Yes · final resultANYTIME TD
30%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Scored · final resultLAST TD
9%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Chiefs · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
46.5MARKET−2.3GAP44.244.2
Season range 41-64
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
KC by 6.0MARKET+1.1GAP4.9KC by 4.9
Season range 18-21

Team props2

Colts · Away1 market

ColtsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
19.5MARKET+0.1GAP19.7Nuvela
Season range 23-23

Chiefs · Home1 market

ChiefsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
26.5MARKET−1.9GAP24.6Nuvela
Season range 31-31