RB · Kansas City Chiefs#24
Brashard Smith
Brashard Smith (RB, KC) props for Week 8 at Denver Broncos: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.
@ Denver Broncos · Week 8IR
- Line
- —
- Rushing Yards
- Projection
- —
- No line is posted for this market this week.
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 0 of 9
- Projections updated
Highlights
No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Kansas City is without running back EJ Smith, so more of the backfield work stays with Smith. Across from him, Denver is missing two linebackers and one defensive lineman, the players who usually stop the run.
SmithIR · hamstring
Around himKansas City Chiefs
10 of 19 touch Smith
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IREJ SmithRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
- IRC.J. HansonGWeakens his run blocking
- IRChris OladokunQBChanges who throws to him
Show 6 more
- IRJeff CaldwellWRFrees targets
- IRJimmy HolidayWRFrees targets
- IRJohn Michael GyllenborgTEFrees targets
- IRJosh SimmonsOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRMatt WaletzkoOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRTyquan ThorntonWRFrees targets
Off the report this week
- ClearedRashee RiceWR · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
Across from himDenver Broncos
6 of 19 touch Smith
This week
- OutTalanoa HufangaSAF · ankleCovers backs downfield
- QuestionableBrandon JonesSAF · hamstringCovers backs downfield
- QuestionableZach AllenDE · hamstringDefends the run
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJonah EllissLB · ankleTackles and covers backs
- IRLevelle BaileyLBTackles and covers backs
- IRMatt HenningsenDEDefends the run
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1919ShowHide
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
19 listed- Jaylon MooreOTOut last week
- L'Jarius SneedCB · kneeQuestionable
- Mansoor DelaneCB · shoulderQuestionable
- R Mason ThomasDE · personalQuestionable
- C.J. HansonG · Not specifiedIR
- Chris OladokunQB · Not specifiedIR
- EJ SmithRB · Not specifiedIR
- Ethan DownsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Jeff CaldwellWR · Not specifiedIR
- Jimmy HolidayWR · Not specifiedIR
- John Michael GyllenborgTE · Not specifiedIR
- Josh SimmonsOT · Not specifiedIR
- Matt WaletzkoOT · Not specifiedIR
- Omarr Norman-LottDT · knee - aclPUP
- Tyquan ThorntonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Chamarri ConnerDB · Last listed Wk 3: Doubtful (knee)—
- Chris JonesDE · Last listed Wk 2: Q (calf)—
- Cooper McDonaldLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
- Rashee RiceWR · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring, knee)Cleared
DEN · Denver Broncos
19 listed- RJ HarveyRB · kneeOut
- Talanoa HufangaSAF · ankleOut
- Brandon JonesSAF · hamstringQuestionable
- Jaylen WaddleWR · chestQuestionable
- Zach AllenDE · hamstringQuestionable
- Caleb LohnerTE · Not specifiedIR
- Frank CrumOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jonah EllissLB · ankleIR
- Levelle BaileyLB · Not specifiedIR
- Matt HenningsenDE · Not specifiedIR
- Michael DeiterC · Not specifiedIR
- Nick GargiuloG · Not specifiedIR
- Pat BryantWR · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BadieRB · thumbIR
- Dondrea TillmanLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
- Jonah ColemanRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (foot)—
- Pat Surtain IICB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Riley MossCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ribs)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 1
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- 0
- regular season
- Average
- 0
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | — | —— | —— |
| Last 5 | 0 | —— | 0%0/1 |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 4 | —— | 0%0/7 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 1
- of 2
- Average
- 0
- yards
- Median
- 0
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 2
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | @ MIA | 0 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ LV | — | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs LAC | DNP | |||||
| Wk 4 | @ LV | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 0 | 0 | — | — | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | DNP | |||||
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | DNP | |||||
Comparable players vs Denver
Other running backs who faced Denver this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went over their line vs Denver
- Bam KnightARI · Week 7Line 38.548Rush ydsOver 38.5Over+9.5
- Tyler AllgeierARI · Week 7Line 31.519Rush ydsUnder 31.5Under−12.5
- George HolaniSEA · Week 6Line 13.520Rush ydsOver 13.5Over+6.5
- Christian McCaffreySF · Week 4Line 65.552Rush ydsUnder 65.5Under−13.5
- Kyren WilliamsLA · Week 3Line 52.588Rush ydsOver 52.5Over+35.5
- Bhayshul TutenJAX · Week 2Line 48.565Rush ydsOver 48.5Over+16.5
- Kenneth Walker IIIKC · Week 1Line 64.5173Rush ydsOver 64.5Over+108.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Denver Broncos defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Denver Broncos actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 23 | 22.1 | 21st of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 102 | 91.1 | 21st of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.4 | 4.1 | 26th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 18% | 17% | 14th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 13% | 11% | 28th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 33% | 23% | 5th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 15.2 | 10th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 22.9 | 22nd of 32 |
| WR | 27.4 | 6th of 32 |
| TE | 15.8 | 24th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 2 | 165 |
| Tony Pollard2025 · Wk 1 | 60 |
| Jaret Patterson2025 · Wk 18 | 29 |
| Breece Hall2025 · Wk 6 | 59 |
| Christian McCaffrey2026 · Wk 4 | 52 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 40.5
- combined
- KC implied total
- 20.75
- favored
- DEN implied total
- 19.75
- underdog
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 30.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 2 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 61°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 35.1
- 60% pass
- His carries
- 3.5
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3.8
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +3.0
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Hamstring
- Game status
- Ir
- Snap share, last game
- 3%
- Games missed this season
- 4
If Smith sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Emmett JohnsonRB · 28% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rushing Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 1st TD | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Brashard Smith's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Brashard Smith's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Brashard Smith's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Brashard Smith's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
