Where do Aaron Rodgers's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Aaron Rodgers's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Aaron Rodgers's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Aaron Rodgers's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers#8

Aaron Rodgers

Updated Oct 30, 1:53 PM PT

Aaron Rodgers' passing yards line is 217.5 for Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 220.9. 11 of 12 markets posted.

vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8

Line: 217.5; Passing Yards
Nuvela projection: 220.9; this week
Difference: +3.4; +2%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 11 of 12
Line since open: level, from 217.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line217.5Back at 217.5, where it opened on Wednesday, after swinging between 217.5 and 219.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 217.5 passing yards

32ndOF 32Cleveland lets 16% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the most in the league.
4/6GAMESHe has topped 217.5 in 4 of his last 6 games, and his typical game is 244 passing yards.
3/3HOME GAMESHe has topped 217.5 in every one of his 3 home games, and this one is at home.

Under

Why he could fall short of 217.5

5thLOWESTCleveland allows a 60% completion rate this season, the 5th lowest in the league.
39.5TOTALThe game total is 39.5, a low scoring matchup.
8thFEWESTCleveland gives up 221 passing yards a game this season, the 8th fewest in the league.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Pittsburgh is missing three receivers, which leaves Rodgers fewer targets to throw to. Across from him, Cleveland is missing three defensive linemen and two linebackers, the players who usually rush the passer.

RodgersNo injury designation

Around himPittsburgh Steelers

7 of 22 touch Rodgers

This week

QuestionableBen SkowronekWR · calfOne fewer target for him to throw to

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCole BurgessWROne fewer target for him to throw to
IRGennings DunkerGWeakens his protection
IRJack DriscollOTWeakens his protection

Show 2 more

IRMichael PittmanWROne fewer target for him to throw to
IRRoman WilsonWROne fewer target for him to throw to

Off the report this week

ClearedRico DowdleRB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himCleveland Browns

11 of 30 touch Rodgers

This week

QuestionableDaniel ThomasSAF · ankleIn pass coverage
QuestionableMyles HardenCB · hamstringIn pass coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRAlex WrightDERushes the passer
IRDamarri MathisDBIn pass coverage
IREdefuan UlofoshioLBRushes the passer

Show 3 more

IRElijah ChatmanDTRushes the passer
PUPJeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBRushes the passer
IRKalia DavisDT · quadricepRushes the passer

Off the report this week

ClearedDenzel WardCB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedMike Hall Jr.DT · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedQuincy WilliamsLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2230Show

PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers

22 listed

Brandin EcholsCB · hamstringOut
Doneiko SlaughterDB · hamstringOut
Ben SkowronekWR · calfQuestionable
Cole BurgessWR · Not specifiedIR
Daequan HardyCB · Not specifiedIR
Derrick HarmonDT · Not specifiedIR
Donte KentCB · Not specifiedPUP
Gennings DunkerG · Not specifiedIR
Jack DriscollOT · Not specifiedIR
Logan LeeDT · Not specifiedIR
Michael PittmanWR · Not specifiedIR
Roman WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsIR
DeShon ElliottSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Jalen RamseyCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
Jamel DeanCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Jaylen WarrenRB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Keeanu BentonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Pat FreiermuthTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)—
Rico DowdleRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Troy FautanuOT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (ankle)—
Yahya BlackDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q—

CLE · Cleveland Browns

30 listed

Dillon GabrielQBOut last week
Daniel ThomasSAF · ankleQuestionable
Myles HardenCB · hamstringQuestionable
Alex WrightDE · Not specifiedIR
Damarri MathisDB · Not specifiedIR
Edefuan UlofoshioLB · Not specifiedIR
Elijah ChatmanDT · Not specifiedIR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Not specifiedPUP
Joe RoyerTE · Not specifiedPUP
Kalia DavisDT · quadricepIR
Raheim SandersRB · Not specifiedIR
Teven JenkinsG · backIR
Bub MeansWRPractice squad
John Saunders Jr.SAFInactive
Audric EstiméRB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (thigh)—
Carsen RyanTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (calf)—
Carson SchwesingerLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Denzel WardCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hand)Cleared
Derek BarnettDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Dylan SampsonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Elgton JenkinsC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
Grant DelpitSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Mason GrahamDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee, ankle)—
Mike Hall Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Noah IgbinogheneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hand)—
Parker BrailsfordC · Last listed Wk 1: Q (thumb)—
Quincy WilliamsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Quinshon JudkinsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tylan WallaceWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
Tyson CampbellCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Passing Yards, last 7

against the posted 217.5

221

ATL

187

at NE

292

CIN

299

at CLE

235

IND

253

at TB

212

at NO

220.9vs CLE

Cleared 217.5Under 217.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line217.5

Consensus line: 217.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 220.9; +3.4 on the line
Above the line: 5 of 7; 71% of the sample
vs closing lines: 5 of 7; each week's own close
Median: 235; regular season
Average: 242.7; +25.2 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	235	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	253	80%4/5	80%4/5
Season	235	71%5/7	71%5/7
Last season	211	50%8/16	44%7/16

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

7 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 7; of 7
Average: 242.7; yards
Median: 235; yards
Above 217.5: 5 of 7; 71% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Passing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs ATL	221	212.5	+8.5
Week 2	@ NE	187	208.5	−21.5
Week 3	vs CIN	292	217.5	+74.5
Week 4	@ CLE	299	279.5	+19.5
Week 5	vs IND	235	222.5	+12.5
Week 6	@ TB	253	222.5	+30.5
Week 7	@ NO	212	229.5	−17.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Att	Comp	Pass yds	Long	TD	INT	Rush yds
Wk 7	@ NO	30	19	212	51	1	0	6
Wk 6	@ TB	49	33	253	19	2	1	-1
Wk 5	vs IND	31	22	235	80	3	0	6
Wk 4	@ CLE	40	22	299	49	3	2	0
Wk 3	vs CIN	34	19	292	47	3	1	10
Wk 2	@ NE	39	23	187	26	0	1	5
Wk 1	vs ATL	40	24	221	28	1	0	-3

Comparable players vs Cleveland

3 of 6

quarterbacks went over their line vs Cleveland, and 3 went under

Rodgers this weekLine217.5Nuvela projection220.9

Cam WardTEN · Week 7Line 178.5181Pass ydsOver 178.5Over+2.5
Tyler HuntleyBAL · Week 6Line 168.5165Pass ydsUnder 168.5Under−3.5
Geno SmithNYJ · Week 5Line 198.5182Pass ydsUnder 198.5Under−16.5
Bryce YoungCAR · Week 3Line 221.5291Pass ydsOver 221.5Over+69.5
Baker MayfieldTB · Week 2Line 215.5182Pass ydsUnder 215.5Under−33.5
Trevor LawrenceJAX · Week 1Line 231.5245Pass ydsOver 231.5Over+13.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Cleveland Browns defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the pass

What Cleveland Browns actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees: the base under every passing prop.	33.9	33.5	18th of 32
Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks.	220.7	235.8	8th of 32
Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on.	6.5	7.1	10th of 32
Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt.	60%	64%	5th of 32
Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line.	8%	6%	6th of 32
Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced: the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards.	22%	22%	13th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	16%	11%	32nd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QBhis position	14.7	8th of 32
RB	19.4	8th of 32
WR	31.8	19th of 32
TE	13.6	18th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Pass yds
Josh Allen2025 · Wk 16	130
Justin Fields2025 · Wk 10	54
Tyler Huntley2026 · Wk 6	165
Lamar Jackson2025 · Wk 11	193
Jordan Love2025 · Wk 3	183

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 39.5; combined
PIT implied total: 21.5; favored
CLE implied total: 18; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 30.2s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 66°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 62.3; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 41.2; 66% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +2.9; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Dropback %66%

Of the team's dropbacks he's on the field for

Pass att / g37.6

Pass attempts per game

Rush att / g1.7

Rush attempts per game

aDOT7.4

Average depth of target, in yards

Pressure rate20%

Dropbacks under pressure

Scramble rate1%

Dropbacks that turn into scrambles

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 100%
Games missed this season: 0

If Rodgers sits

If a quarterback sits, the whole passing game moves down together: every receiver's range drops with the backup.

Next up

Mason RudolphQB

Where his work goes

Every pass catcher's number moves down with the backup, so there is no single winner to show.

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

11 posted · 1 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Passing Yards	217.5	220.9Nuvela projection	+3.4	4 of 5	217.5	level
Passing TDs	1.5	Market only	—	4 of 5	1.5	level
Anytime TD	7%	Market only	—	0 of 5	7%	level
Interceptions	0.5	Market only	—	3 of 5	0.5	level
Rushing Yards	0.5	1.5Nuvela projection	+1.0	3 of 5	0.5	level
Pass Attempts	33.5	33.7Nuvela projection	+0.2	3 of 5	33.5	level
Completions	21.5	21.9Nuvela projection	+0.4	3 of 5	21.5	level
Pass + Rush Yards	223.5	222.4Nuvela projection	−1.1	4 of 5	222.5	+1.0
Longest Completion	35.5	44.8Nuvela	+9.3	4 of 5	35.5	level
1st TD	2%	Market only	—	0 of 5	2%	level
Last TD	3%	Market only	—	0 of 5	2%	+1%
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net 0 (range 217.5–219.5)

Wed 2:02 PM217.5opened
Wed 2:03 PM217.50.0
Wed 8:00 PM219.5+2.0
Thu 10:59 AM218.5−1.0
Fri 11:01 AM217.5−1.0

Opened 217.5, now 217.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.5
The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Passing Yards

7 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	218.5	−115	−115
BetOnline	218.5	−112	−115
BetRivers	215.5	−114	−117
Bovada	217.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	217.5	−113	−111
Fanatics	215.5	−110	−120
FanDuel	218.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Aaron Rodgers's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Aaron Rodgers's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Aaron Rodgers's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Aaron Rodgers's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.