QB · Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1
- Line
- 212.5
- Passing Yards
- Nuvela
- 225
- our projection
- Difference
- +12.5
- +6%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 11 of 13
- Line since open
- 0, from 212.5
- Projections updated
- Stats through
- Week 1
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 212.5 | 225 | +12.5 | 4 of 5 | 212.5 | level |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.2 | −0.3 | 1 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 6% | — | — | 1 of 5 | 7% | 0% |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 | 0 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Rushing Yards | 0.5 | 5.1 | +4.6 | 3 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 31.5 | 0 | 4 of 5 | 31.5 | level |
| Completions | 20.5 | 19.6 | −0.9 | 5 of 5 | 20.5 | level |
| Longest Completion | 33.5 | — | — | — | 33.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 2% | — | — | 1 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 2% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| 2+ TDs | 1% | — | — | 0 of 5 | — | — |
| Pass + Rush Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
How the line moved
- Thu 4:49 AM212.5opened
- Thu 4:51 AM212.50
- Thu 11:09 AM213.5+1
- Fri 1:05 PM214.5+1
- Fri 7:06 PM213.5−1
- Sun 9:51 AM212.5−1
Opened 212.5, now 212.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 564 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 564 games+0.5
- The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 562 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 564 games−0.1
A role-level tendency across the league — a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Passing Yards, last 1
- Consensus line
- 212.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 225
- +12.5 on the line
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- —
- regular season
- Average
- —
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 266 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 266 | 80%4/5 | 80%4/5 |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 211 | 50%8/16 | 44%7/16 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to split.
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- —
- Games missed this season
- —
Workload dependencies
No workload dependencies flagged.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers
ATL · Atlanta Falcons
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 10
- 3 PIT · 7 ATL
- Ruled out
- 8
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 2
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 0
- none directly
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
No listed player changes his own workload directly. Everyone on these reports reaches him through the game — a matchup and a script, not his role.
Across both clubs, 8 ruled out and 2 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Everything below uses 2026 games before Week 1 only — nothing from this game or later. The market lists Aaron Rodgers at 212.5 passing yards. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 225.0. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
1 factor in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 40.5
- combined
- PIT implied total
- 23.5
- favored
- ATL implied total
- 17
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- —
- not published yet
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 61
- 1-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 42.7
- 70% pass
- His pass attempts
- 34.7
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 2
- 1-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +10.6
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Atlanta Falcons defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
By position
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to rank a defence by.
Similar players
| Player | Pass yds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen2025 · Wk 6 | 180 |
| Jacoby Brissett2025 · Wk 16 | 203 |
| Daniel Jones2025 · Wk 10 | 255 |
| Mac Jones2025 · Wk 7 | 152 |
| Marcus Mariota2025 · Wk 4 | 156 |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
No games played yet this season.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Passing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 216.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 212.5 | −115 | −112 |
| BetRivers | 214.5 | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada | 182.5 | +175 | −240 |
| DraftKings | 212.5 | −113 | −111 |
| Fanatics | 210.5 | −115 | −115 |
| FanDuel | 212.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Take this research further
Each question opens in the Research Assistant with this player's context pre-loaded.
