Where do Carson Steele's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Carson Steele's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Carson Steele's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Carson Steele's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

RB · Philadelphia Eagles#34

Carson Steele

Updated Oct 29, 3:48 AM PT

Carson Steele (RB, PHI) props for Week 8 at Washington Commanders: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

@ Washington Commanders · Week 8No team

Line: —; Rushing Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:28 PM PT
Markets posted: 0 of 9
Projections updated: Oct 30, 3:00 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Philadelphia is without three other running backs, so more of the backfield work stays with Steele. Across from him, Washington is missing two defensive linemen and two linebackers, the players who usually stop the run.

SteeleNo team

Around himPhiladelphia Eagles

12 of 29 touch Steele

This week

OutBritain CoveyWR · kneeFrees targets
OutDeVonta SmithWR · hamstringFrees targets
OutDontayvion WicksWR · ankleFrees targets

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDameon PierceRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRTank BigsbyRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRWill ShipleyRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield

Show 2 more

IRJalen HurtsQBChanges who throws to him
IRJohnny WilsonWRFrees targets

Off the report this week

ClearedEli StowersTE · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedGrant CalcaterraTE · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedLandon DickersonG · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedSaquon BarkleyRB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himWashington Commanders

6 of 28 touch Steele

This week

OutJavon KinlawDT · ankle, kneeDefends the run
QuestionableCharles OmenihuDE · groin, ankleDefends the run

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJavontae Jean-BaptisteLB · pectoralTackles and covers backs
IRJer'Zhan NewtonDT · pectoralDefends the run
IRLeo ChenalLBTackles and covers backs

Show 1 more

IRMalik SpencerSAFCovers backs downfield

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2928Show

PHI · Philadelphia Eagles

29 listed

Britain CoveyWR · kneeOut
DeVonta SmithWR · hamstringOut
Dontayvion WicksWR · ankleOut
Jihaad CampbellLB · hamstringOut
Jonathan JonesDB · hamstringOut
Andre' SamSAF · Not specifiedIR
Dameon PierceRB · undisclosedIR
Jakorian BennettDB · kneeIR
Jalen HurtsQB · Not specifiedIR
Johnny WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Tank BigsbyRB · Not specifiedIR
Tucker LargeSAF · Not specifiedIR
Will ShipleyRB · Not specifiedIR
A.J. EpenesaLB · Last listed Wk 6: Doubtful (back)—
Andrew MukubaSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Dallas GoedertTE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
Drew KendallC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Eli StowersTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (quadricep)Cleared
Fred JohnsonOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
Grant CalcaterraTE · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
Jalyx HuntLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, ankle)Cleared
Jonathan GreenardLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
Landon DickersonG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, pectoral)Cleared
Marcus EppsSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Out (groin)—
Marquise BrownWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
Michael Carter IICB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (abdomen)Cleared
Nolan SmithLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (concussion)Cleared
Saquon BarkleyRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
Zack BaunLB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—

WAS · Washington Commanders

28 listed

Javon KinlawDT · ankle, kneeOut
Charles OmenihuDE · groin, ankleQuestionable
John BatesTE · shoulderQuestionable
Treylon BurksWR · footQuestionable
Jacoby JonesWR · Not specifiedIR
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · groinIR
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLB · pectoralIR
Jaylin LaneWR · ankleIR
Jer'Zhan NewtonDT · pectoralIR
Laremy TunsilOT · Not specifiedIR
Leo ChenalLB · Not specifiedIR
Malik SpencerSAF · Not specifiedIR
Terry McLaurinWR · kneeIR
Chig OkonkwoTE · Last listed Wk 3: Out (hamstring)—
Deatrich WiseDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (quadricep)—
Frankie LuvuLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (groin)—
Jayden DanielsQB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (elbow)—
Jeremy McNicholsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
Jordan MageeLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Lucas PatrickC · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
Marcus MariotaQB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Nick CrossSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)—
Percy ButlerSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Rachaad WhiteRB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
Sam CosmiOT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion, throat)—
Stefon DiggsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Trey AmosCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tyler OwensDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Rushing Yards, last 1

against the posted line

CAR

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: 0; regular season
Average: 0

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	—	——	——
Last 5	—	——	——
Season	—	——	——
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

1 of 1 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 1; of 1
Average: 0; yards
Median: 0; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 1: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Rushing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 6	vs CAR	0	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

1 played · 1 DNP

Week	Opponent	Carries	Rush yds	YPC	Long	Rec	TD
Wk 6	vs CAR	0	0	—	—	1	0
Wk 5	@ JAX	DNP

Comparable players vs Washington

3 of 5

running backs went over their line vs Washington

Christian McCaffreySF · Week 6Line 62.564Rush ydsOver 62.5Over+1.5
Cam SkatteboNYG · Week 5Line 61.559Rush ydsUnder 61.5Under−2.5
Jonathan TaylorIND · Week 4Line 91.595Rush ydsOver 91.5Over+3.5
Javonte WilliamsDAL · Week 2Line 76.530Rush ydsUnder 76.5Under−46.5
Saquon BarkleyPHI · Week 1Line 76.583Rush ydsOver 76.5Over+6.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Washington Commanders defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the run

What Washington Commanders actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees.	20.3	22.1	7th of 32
Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs.	77.7	91.1	8th of 32
Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded.	3.8	4.1	10th of 32
Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop.	16%	17%	19th of 32
Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from.	8%	11%	6th of 32
Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box.	13%	23%	29th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	22.2	30th of 32
RBhis position	19.1	7th of 32
WR	35.9	27th of 32
TE	21.5	31st of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rush yds
Christian McCaffrey2026 · Wk 6	64
De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 11	120
Javonte Williams2026 · Wk 2	30
Josh Jacobs2025 · Wk 2	84
Saquon Barkley2026 · Wk 1	83

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 40.5; combined
PHI implied total: 17.25; underdog
WAS implied total: 23.25; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 29.7s; seconds / play
Wind: 4 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 54°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 58.6; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 38.1; 65% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.7; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −2.2; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share3%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %—

Of the team's dropbacks

Carry share0%

Of the team's rush attempts

RZ touches / g0

Touches inside the opponent's 20, per game

Goal-line carry share0%

Of the team's carries inside the 5

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Not specified
Game status: No Team
Snap share, last game: 5%
Games missed this season: 2

If Steele sits

If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.

Next up

Elijah MitchellRB · 16% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

0 posted · 9 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	No line posted yet
Rushing Yards	No line posted yet
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
1st TD	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Longest Rush	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Carson Steele's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Carson Steele's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Carson Steele's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Carson Steele's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.