Where do Case Keenum's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Case Keenum's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Case Keenum's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Case Keenum's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

QB · Chicago Bears#11

Case Keenum

Case Keenum (QB, CHI) props for Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

@ Seattle Seahawks · Week 8

Line: —; Passing Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 0 of 10
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:01 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Chicago is missing three tight ends and one receiver, which leaves Keenum fewer targets to throw to. Across from him, Seattle is missing one linebacker, the players who usually rush the passer.

KeenumNo injury designation

Around himChicago Bears

8 of 31 touch Keenum

This week

QuestionableColston LovelandTE · neckOne fewer target for him to throw to
QuestionableKyle MonangaiRB · thumb, toeChanges his backfield

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRBraxton JonesOTWeakens his protection
IRBrittain BrownRBChanges his backfield
IRCole KmetTE · kneeOne fewer target for him to throw to

Show 3 more

IRHayden LargeTEOne fewer target for him to throw to
IRNikola KalinicTEOne fewer target for him to throw to
IRRay-Ray McCloudWROne fewer target for him to throw to

Across from himSeattle Seahawks

12 of 31 touch Keenum

This week

QuestionableChazz SurrattLB · calfRushes the passer
QuestionableConnor O'TooleLB · hamstringRushes the passer
QuestionableDrake ThomasLB · ankleRushes the passer
QuestionableLeonard WilliamsDE · achillesRushes the passer
QuestionablePatrick O'ConnellLB · toeRushes the passer
QuestionableTyrice KnightLB · hipRushes the passer
QuestionableUchenna NwosuLB · hipRushes the passer

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRAaron SmithLBRushes the passer
IRBud ClarkSAFIn pass coverage
IRJulian NealCBIn pass coverage

Off the report this week

ClearedDeMarcus LawrenceLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedNick EmmanworiSAF · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3131Show

CHI · Chicago Bears

31 listed

Colston LovelandTE · neckQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLB · ankleQuestionable
Jack SanbornLB · concussionQuestionable
Kyle MonangaiRB · thumb, toeQuestionable
Malik MuhammadCB · toeQuestionable
Anthony Johnson Jr.SAF · undisclosedIR
Braxton JonesOT · Not specifiedIR
Brittain BrownRB · Not specifiedIR
Coby BryantCB · kneeIR
Cole KmetTE · kneeIR
Dallis FlowersCB · Not specifiedIR
Dayo OdeyingboDE · Not specifiedIR
Dontae ManningCB · Not specifiedIR
Hayden LargeTE · Not specifiedIR
Jonathan GarvinDE · Not specifiedIR
Nephi SewellLB · Not specifiedIR
Nikola KalinicTE · Not specifiedIR
Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Not specifiedIR
Ruben Hyppolite IILB · Not specifiedIR
Tony Fields IILB · Not specifiedIR
Caleb WilliamsQB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Cam LewisCB · Last listed Wk 4: Doubtful (hip)—
Keyshaun ElliottLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (quadricep)—
Kyler GordonCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)—
Noah SewellLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (achilles)—
Ozzy TrapiloOT · Last listed Wk 1: Q (knee)—
Rome OdunzeWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (calf)—
Shemar TurnerDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
T.J. EdwardsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Doubtful (hamstring)Cleared
Tyrique StevensonCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hip)Cleared
Tyson BagentQB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (concussion)—

SEA · Seattle Seahawks

31 listed

Chazz SurrattLB · calfQuestionable
Connor O'TooleLB · hamstringQuestionable
Drake ThomasLB · ankleQuestionable
Drew LockQB · elbowQuestionable
Leonard WilliamsDE · achillesQuestionable
Patrick O'ConnellLB · toeQuestionable
Rashid ShaheedWR · kneeQuestionable
Tyrice KnightLB · hipQuestionable
Uchenna NwosuLB · hipQuestionable
Velus Jones Jr.RB · hamstringQuestionable
Zach CharbonnetRB · kneeQuestionable
Aaron SmithLB · Not specifiedIR
Bud ClarkSAF · Not specifiedIR
Elijah ArroyoTE · Not specifiedIR
Jadarian PriceRB · chestIR
Jake BoboWR · Not specifiedIR
Julian NealCB · Not specifiedIR
Mason RichmanG · Not specifiedIR
Robbie OuztsRB · Not specifiedIR
Jacardia WrightRBPractice squad
Terrion ArnoldCBInactive
Anthony BradfordG · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee, hip)—
Brandon PiliDT · Last listed Wk 3: Q (concussion, neck)—
DeMarcus LawrenceLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
George HolaniRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ribs, knee)—
Irvin CharlesWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Julian LoveSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
Nick EmmanworiSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hip)Cleared
Sam DarnoldQB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (glute)—
Tory HortonWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hamstring)—
Ty OkadaSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Passing Yards, last 2

against the posted line

247

PHI

—W4

108

at GB

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: 1 of 1; each week's own close
Median: 177.5; regular season
Average: 177.5

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	247	——	100%1/1
Last 5	247	——	100%1/1
Season	247	——	100%1/1
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

2 of 3 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 2; of 3
Average: 177.5; yards
Median: 177.5; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 3: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Passing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 3	vs PHI	247	165.5	+81.5
Week 4	vs NYJ	—	—	—
Week 5	@ GB	108	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

3 played

Week	Opponent	Att	Comp	Pass yds	Long	TD	INT	Rush yds
Wk 5	@ GB	19	11	108	23	0	1	4
Wk 4	vs NYJ	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 3	vs PHI	34	24	247	41	2	0	6

Comparable players vs Seattle

6 of 7

quarterbacks went under their line vs Seattle

Patrick MahomesKC · Week 7Line 218.5165Pass ydsUnder 218.5Under−53.5
Bo NixDEN · Week 6Line 199.5107Pass ydsUnder 199.5Under−92.5
Brock PurdySF · Week 5Line 228.5189Pass ydsUnder 228.5Under−39.5
Justin HerbertLAC · Week 4Line 199.5189Pass ydsUnder 199.5Under−10.5
Marcus MariotaWAS · Week 3Line 166.5183Pass ydsOver 166.5Over+16.5
Jacoby BrissettARI · Week 2Line 216.595Pass ydsUnder 216.5Under−121.5
Drake MayeNE · Week 1Line 230.5178Pass ydsUnder 230.5Under−52.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Seattle Seahawks defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the pass

What Seattle Seahawks actually allows to QBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Pass attempts facedHow much passing volume this defence sees: the base under every passing prop.	30.3	33.5	6th of 32
Passing yards allowedPer game, to quarterbacks.	158	235.8	1st of 32
Yards per attempt allowedEfficiency conceded, independent of how often the defence is thrown on.	5.2	7.1	1st of 32
Completion % allowedCompletions per attempt.	63%	64%	10th of 32
Sack rateSacks per dropback. Sacks remove attempts outright, so they cap a passing line.	7%	6%	8th of 32
Pressure rateHow often this defence pressured the quarterbacks it faced: the mechanism behind suppressed passing yards.	38%	22%	1st of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	9%	11%	11th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QBhis position	10.4	2nd of 32
RB	20.9	15th of 32
WR	21.5	1st of 32
TE	9.9	3rd of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Pass yds
Jacoby Brissett2026 · Wk 2	95
Max Brosmer2025 · Wk 13	126
Kirk Cousins2025 · Wk 14	162
Justin Herbert2026 · Wk 4	189
Trevor Lawrence2025 · Wk 6	258

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 46.5; combined
CHI implied total: 21.75; underdog
SEA implied total: 24.75; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 30.6s; seconds / play
Wind: 2 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 50°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 71; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 39.9; 56% pass
Red-zone trips: 4.3; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −0.3; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Dropback %12%

Of the team's dropbacks he's on the field for

Pass att / g26.5

Pass attempts per game

Rush att / g2.5

Rush attempts per game

aDOT7.4

Average depth of target, in yards

Pressure rate13%

Dropbacks under pressure

Scramble rate4%

Dropbacks that turn into scrambles

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 33%
Games missed this season: 2

If Keenum sits

If a quarterback sits, the whole passing game moves down together: every receiver's range drops with the backup.

Next up

Tyson BagentQB

Where his work goes

Every pass catcher's number moves down with the backup, so there is no single winner to show.

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

0 posted · 10 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Passing Yards	No line posted yet
Passing TDs	No line posted yet
Anytime TD	No line posted yet
Interceptions	No line posted yet
Rushing Yards	No line posted yet
Pass Attempts	No line posted yet
Completions	No line posted yet
Pass + Rush Yards	No line posted yet
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet
Longest Completion	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the QB's passing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The WR1's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove together · 760 games+0.5
The TE1's receiving yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Case Keenum's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Case Keenum's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Case Keenum's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Case Keenum's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.