nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · MONDAY

Bears vs Seahawks Player Props

Kickoff
Mon, Nov 2 · 5:15 PM PT
Venue
Lumen Field
Conditions
Outdoor · 50F, 2 mph wind, clouds

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. AJ BarnerSEA · RECEPTIONS
    Line
    3.5
    Nuvela projection
    2.7
    Gap
    −0.8
  2. Caleb WilliamsCHI · PASS + RUSH YARDS
    Line
    253.5
    Nuvela projection
    228.9
    Gap
    −24.6
  3. Caleb WilliamsCHI · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    227.5
    Nuvela projection
    210.2
    Gap
    In line with market
  4. Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · RECEIVING YARDS
    Line
    98.5
    Nuvela projection
    103.5
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Sam DarnoldSEA · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    232.5
    Nuvela projection
    243.3
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 134.4Projected play count
  • -2.8Pass rate over expected
  • 1stPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Bears21.519.6−1.9
Seahawks24.524.4−0.1
Game total46.544.0−2.5

The Bears carry 95% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

116 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props112

Bears · Away5 players

PASS + RUSH YARDS
253.5MARKET−24.6MODERATE228.9Nuvela projection
Season range 180-334RUSHING YARDS
21.5MARKET−2.8In line with market18.7Nuvela projection
Season range 3-65PASSING YARDS
227.5MARKET−17.3In line with market210.2Nuvela projection
Season range 138-308COMPLETIONS
19.5MARKET+1.4In line with market20.9Nuvela projection
Season range 15-30PASS ATTEMPTS
32.5MARKET+0.5In line with market33.0Nuvela projection
Season range 26-36LONGEST COMPLETION
32.5MARKET+3.9MODERATE36.4Nuvela
Season range 25-581ST TD
4%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
18%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-2LAST TD
5%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET49%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-1PASSING TDS
1.5MARKET40%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-2
Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Seahawks · Home3 players

Depth and touchdown only · 11 players · 33 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
46.5MARKET−2.5GAP44.044.0
Season range 12-96
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
SEA by 3.0MARKET+1.7GAP4.7SEA by 4.7
Season range 2-24

Team props2

Bears · Away1 market

BearsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
21.5MARKET−1.9GAP19.7Nuvela
Season range 3-59

Seahawks · Home1 market

SeahawksTEAM TOTAL POINTS
24.5MARKET−0.1GAP24.4Nuvela
Season range 13-31