Where do Derius Davis's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Derius Davis's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Derius Davis's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Derius Davis's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Los Angeles Chargers#12

Derius Davis

Updated Oct 29, 3:49 AM PT

Derius Davis (WR, LAC) props for Week 8 at Los Angeles Rams: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

@ Los Angeles Rams · Week 8 · Dome

Line: —; Receiving Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:08 PM PT
Markets posted: 3 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:09 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Los Angeles Chargers is without three other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Davis. Across from him, Los Angeles Rams is missing one cornerback, the players who usually cover receivers.

DavisNo injury designation

Around himLos Angeles Chargers

5 of 31 touch Davis

This week

OutBrenen ThompsonWR · quadricepFrees targets at his spot

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDalevon CampbellWRFrees targets at his spot
IRSincere BrownWRFrees targets at his spot
IRDavid NjokuTEFrees targets

Show 1 more

IRTrey LanceQBChanges who throws to him

Across from himLos Angeles Rams

2 of 23 touch Davis

This week

QuestionableTrent McDuffieCB · groinCovers receivers

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRZech McPhearsonCBCovers receivers

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3123Show

LAC · Los Angeles Chargers

31 listed

Brenen ThompsonWR · quadricepOut
Deane LeonardCB · concussionOut
Derwin JamesFS · hamstringOut
Joe AltOTOut last week
Kayode AwosikaGOut last week
Donte JacksonCB · hamstringQuestionable
Rodney ShelleyDB · hamstringQuestionable
Alec IngoldFB · Not specifiedIR
Dalevon CampbellWR · Not specifiedIR
David NjokuTE · Not specifiedIR
Denzel PerrymanMLB · undisclosedIR
Isaiah WorldOT · Not specifiedIR
Rashawn SlaterOT · Not specifiedIR
Sincere BrownWR · Not specifiedIR
Trevor PenningOT · Not specifiedIR
Trey LanceQB · Not specifiedIR
Trey PipkinsOT · Not specifiedIR
Tyler BiadaszC · Not specifiedIR
Branson TaylorOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (neck)—
Bud DupreeOLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q—
Charlie KolarTE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (forearm)—
Daiyan HenleyLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Dalvin TomlinsonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Elijah MoldenCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
Jamaree CaldwellDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Ladd McConkeyWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
Quentin JohnstonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (chest)—
Scott MatlockRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
Tre HarrisWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
Tuli TuipulotuLB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—

LA · Los Angeles Rams

23 listed

Colby ParkinsonTE · ribsQuestionable
Jordan WhittingtonWR · backQuestionable
Trent McDuffieCB · groinQuestionable
Blake GrupeK · Not specifiedIR
Daniel RickertLB · Not specifiedIR
Davante AdamsWR · hamstringIR
Eddie Walls IIILB · Not specifiedIR
Justin DedichOL · Not specifiedIR
Kobie TurnerDE · Not specifiedIR
Matthew CaldwellQB · Not specifiedIR
Myles GarrettLB · kneeIR
Poona FordDT · Not specifiedIR
Ronnie RiversRB · Not specifiedIR
Terrance FergusonTE · ankleIR
Zech McPhearsonCB · Not specifiedIR
Aaron DonaldDE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
Jaylen WatsonCB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
Josaiah StewartLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (groin)—
Kam CurlSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Kamren KinchensSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Doubtful (hamstring)—
Nate LandmanLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (concussion)Cleared
Puka NacuaWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (calf)Cleared
Quentin LakeSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hip)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 6

against the posted line

ARI

at BUF

at SEA

DEN

at KC

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: 0; regular season
Average: 1

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	—	——	——
Last 5	—	——	——
Season	—	——	——
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

6 of 6 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 6; of 6
Average: 1; yards
Median: 0; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 6: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs ARI	0	—	—
Week 2	vs LV	0	—	—
Week 3	@ BUF	0	—	—
Week 4	@ SEA	6	—	—
Week 5	vs DEN	0	—	—
Week 6	@ KC	0	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

6 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT
Wk 6	@ KC	0	0	0	—	—
Wk 5	vs DEN	0	0	0	—	—
Wk 4	@ SEA	1	1	6	6	—
Wk 3	@ BUF	0	0	0	—	—
Wk 2	vs LV	1	0	0	—	—
Wk 1	vs ARI	1	0	0	—	—

Comparable players vs LA Rams

10 of 19

wide receivers went over their line vs LA Rams

Jalen NailorLV · Week 7Line 16.514Rec ydsUnder 16.5Under−2.5
Tre TuckerLV · Week 7Line 42.5103Rec ydsOver 42.5Over+60.5
Jalen BrooksARI · Week 6Line 22.530Rec ydsOver 22.5Over+7.5
Kendrick BourneARI · Week 6Line 30.547Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+16.5
Michael WilsonARI · Week 6Line 58.532Rec ydsUnder 58.5Under−26.5
Keon ColemanBUF · Week 5Line 39.57Rec ydsUnder 39.5Under−32.5
Khalil ShakirBUF · Week 5Line 46.580Rec ydsOver 46.5Over+33.5
Skyler BellBUF · Week 5Line 15.50Rec ydsUnder 15.5Under−15.5
Darius CooperPHI · Week 4Line 19.533Rec ydsOver 19.5Over+13.5
Dontayvion WicksPHI · Week 4Line 54.518Rec ydsUnder 54.5Under−36.5
Makai LemonPHI · Week 4Line 36.527Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−9.5
Courtland SuttonDEN · Week 3Line 36.546Rec ydsOver 36.5Over+9.5
Jaylen WaddleDEN · Week 3Line 58.510Rec ydsUnder 58.5Under−48.5
Pat BryantDEN · Week 3Line 26.544Rec ydsOver 26.5Over+17.5
Darnell MooneyNYG · Week 2Line 19.548Rec ydsOver 19.5Over+28.5
Malachi FieldsNYG · Week 2Line 25.530Rec ydsOver 25.5Over+4.5
Malik NabersNYG · Week 2Line 61.51Rec ydsUnder 61.5Under−60.5
Demarcus RobinsonSF · Week 1Line 9.550Rec ydsOver 9.5Over+40.5
Mike EvansSF · Week 1Line 49.549Rec ydsUnder 49.5Under−0.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Los Angeles Rams defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Los Angeles Rams actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	15.9	18.4	6th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	53%	62%	1st of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	106	148.8	2nd of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	6.7	8.1	2nd of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	10.6	11.1	12th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	5.7	4.3	31st of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	8%	11%	7th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	17.1	18th of 32
RB	20.3	13th of 32
WRhis position	26.8	5th of 32
TE	10.2	5th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Drake London2025 · Wk 17	4
DeVonta Smith2025 · Wk 3	60
Jaxon Smith-Njigba2025 · Wk 16	96
Amon-Ra St. Brown2025 · Wk 15	164
A.J. Brown2025 · Wk 3	109

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 45; combined
LAC implied total: 19.25; underdog
LA implied total: 25.75; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 29.8s; seconds / play
Wind: Indoors; no wind factor
Conditions: Dome; climate controlled

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 61.7; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 36.8; 60% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.5; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −9.8; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share10%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %11%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share2%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share5%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share0%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g0.5

Targets per game

Yards / route run0.3

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT25

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 7%
Games missed this season: 0

If Davis sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Theo Wease Jr.WR · 56% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Keaton MitchellRB+3targets
Oronde Gadsden IITE+3targets
Tre HarrisWR+1.7targets
Kimani VidalRB+1targets

Based on 2 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

3 posted · 5 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	4%	Market only	—	0 of 5	4%	−1%
1st TD	1%	Market only	—	0 of 5	1%	level
Last TD	1%	Market only	—	0 of 5	1%	level
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Derius Davis's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Derius Davis's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Derius Davis's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Derius Davis's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.