WR · Baltimore Ravens#81
Devontez Walker
Updated
Devontez Walker's receiving yards line is 4.5 for Week 8 at Buffalo Bills (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 11.3. 5 of 8 markets posted.
@ Buffalo Bills · Week 8
- Line
- 4.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 11.3
- this week
- Difference
- +6.8
- +151%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 5 of 8
- Line since open
- level, from 4.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 4.5 receiving yards
Line4.5Hasn't moved since it opened Wed 2:03 PM PT, at BetOnline and FanDuel.
Over
Why he could top 4.5 receiving yards
- 54.5TOTALThe game total is 54.5, a high scoring matchup.
- 15A GAMEHe has averaged 15 receiving yards over his last 5 games, against a line of 4.5.
- 26thOF 32Buffalo gives up 174 receiving yards a game to receivers this season, the 7th most in the league.
Under
Why he could fall short of 4.5
- 1.8TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 1.8 targets a game, 6% of Baltimore's total, over 6 games.
- 46%ROUTESHe runs a route on about 46% of dropbacks over 6 games.
- 1/3ROAD GAMESHe has topped 4.5 in 1 of his 3 road games, and this one is on the road.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Baltimore is without quarterback Skylar Thompson, which changes who throws to Walker. Across from him, Buffalo is missing two cornerbacks, the players who usually cover receivers.
WalkerNo injury designation
Around himBaltimore Ravens
3 of 26 touch Walker
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDurham SmytheTEFrees targets
- IRSkylar ThompsonQBChanges who throws to him
Off the report this week
- ClearedLamar JacksonQB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
Across from himBuffalo Bills
4 of 22 touch Walker
This week
- SuspendedC.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionDeep coverage
- QuestionableDee AlfordCB · ankleCovers receivers
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPDorian StrongCBCovers receivers
- IRJordan HancockCBCovers receivers
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2622ShowHide
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
26 listed- Jaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeOut
- Adam RandallRB · neckIR
- Bilhal KoneCB · Not specifiedIR
- Danny PinterG · Not specifiedIR
- Durham SmytheTE · Not specifiedIR
- Ethan PocicC · Not specifiedIR
- Jahquez RobinsonSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Jovaughn GwynC · Not specifiedIR
- Skylar ThompsonQB · Not specifiedIR
- T.J. TampaCB · kneeIR
- Tavius RobinsonLB · pectoralIR
- Andrew VorheesG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)—
- Broderick WashingtonDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Cam JurgensG · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
- Chris MooreWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle)—
- Emery Jones Jr.OT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
- John SimpsonG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
- Lamar JacksonQB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
- Marlon HumphreyCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring, calf)—
- Matthew HibnerTE · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hand)—
- Nnamdi MadubuikeDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (neck)—
- Ronnie StanleyOT · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Teddye BuchananLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Trey HendricksonLB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (finger)—
- Zay FlowersWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
BUF · Buffalo Bills
22 listed- DJ MooreWR · shoulderQuestionable
- Dalton KincaidTE · chestQuestionable
- Dee AlfordCB · ankleQuestionable
- Greg GainesDT · calfQuestionable
- TJ ParkerLB · kneeQuestionable
- Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesLB · Not specifiedIR
- Desmond ReidRB · Not specifiedIR
- Dorian StrongCB · Not specifiedPUP
- Jordan HancockCB · Not specifiedIR
- Tyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclPUP
- Zane DurantDT · Not specifiedIR
- C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionSuspended
- Ar'maj Reed-AdamsG · Last listed Wk 3: Q (elbow)—
- Christian BenfordCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (toe)—
- Cole BishopSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee, groin)—
- Ed OliverDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Josh PalmerWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
- Keon ColemanWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (ankle)—
- Landon JacksonDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Ray DavisRB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
- T.J. SandersDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
- Ty JohnsonRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 5
- Consensus line
- 4.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 11.3
- +6.8 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 5
- 60% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 1
- each week's own close
- Median
- 9
- regular season
- Average
- 15
- +10.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 4.5 | 50%1/2 | 100%1/1 |
| Last 5 | 4.5 | 50%2/4 | 100%1/1 |
| Season | 9 | 60%3/5 | 100%1/1 |
| Last season | 26 | 57%4/7 | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 5
- of 6
- Average
- 15
- yards
- Median
- 9
- yards
- Above 4.5
- 3 of 5
- 60% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | vs NO | 47 | — | — |
| Week 3 | @ DAL | 0 | — | — |
| Week 4 | vs TEN | 19 | — | — |
| Week 5 | @ ATL | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 |
| Week 6 | @ CLE | 0 | — | — |
| Week 7 | vs CIN | — | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | vs CIN | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 6 | @ CLE | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ ATL | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | — | 1 |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 2 | 1 | 19 | 19 | — | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 2 | 1 | 47 | 47 | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs Buffalo
Other wide receivers who faced Buffalo this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went over their line vs Buffalo
- Jalen NailorLV · Week 6Line 20.59Rec ydsUnder 20.5Under−11.5
- Tre TuckerLV · Week 6Line 39.597Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+57.5
- Davante AdamsLA · Week 5Line 62.551Rec ydsUnder 62.5Under−11.5
- Puka NacuaLA · Week 5Line 93.5138Rec ydsOver 93.5Over+44.5
- Romeo DoubsNE · Week 4Line 39.558Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+18.5
- Ladd McConkeyLAC · Week 3Line 58.566Rec ydsOver 58.5Over+7.5
- Quentin JohnstonLAC · Week 3Line 35.540Rec ydsOver 35.5Over+4.5
- Tre HarrisLAC · Week 3Line 31.576Rec ydsOver 31.5Over+44.5
- Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · Week 2Line 79.5142Rec ydsOver 79.5Over+62.5
- Isaac TeSlaaDET · Week 2Line 17.526Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+8.5
- Jameson WilliamsDET · Week 2Line 57.533Rec ydsUnder 57.5Under−24.5
- Nico CollinsHOU · Week 1Line 69.575Rec ydsOver 69.5Over+5.5
- Xavier HutchinsonHOU · Week 1Line 17.532Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+14.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Buffalo Bills defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Buffalo Bills actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 21.5 | 18.4 | 28th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 64% | 62% | 21st of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 173.8 | 148.8 | 26th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 8.1 | 8.1 | 16th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 11.7 | 11.1 | 21st of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 10% | 11% | 15th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 21.8 | 29th of 32 |
| RB | 27.3 | 30th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 42.3 | 32nd of 32 |
| TE | 15.2 | 21st of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase2025 · Wk 14 | 44 |
| Drake London2025 · Wk 6 | 158 |
| Jameson Williams2026 · Wk 2 | 33 |
| Tyler Johnson2025 · Wk 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown2026 · Wk 2 | 142 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 54.5
- combined
- BAL implied total
- 25.75
- underdog
- BUF implied total
- 28.75
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 32.1s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 4 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 62°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 60.9
- 7-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 34.1
- 56% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.4
- 7-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.9
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 30%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Walker sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
Elijah SarrattWR · 18% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 4.5 | 11.3Nuvela projection | +6.8 | 3 of 5 | 4.5 | level |
| Receptions | 0.5 | 1.5Nuvela projection | +1.0 | 3 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 9% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 9% | level |
| 1st TD | 1% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 2:03 PM4.5opened
- Fri 11:01 AM4.50.0
Opened 4.5, now 4.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4.5 | +103 | −133 |
| Bovada | 0.5 | −110 | −120 |
| DraftKings | 0.5 | −107 | −117 |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +102 | −132 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Devontez Walker's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Devontez Walker's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Devontez Walker's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Devontez Walker's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
