TE · New England Patriots#82
Eli Raridon
Updated
Eli Raridon's receiving yards line is 18.5 for Week 8 at Miami Dolphins (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 18.6. 6 of 7 markets posted.
@ Miami Dolphins · Week 8
- Line
- 18.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 18.6
- this week · small sample
- Difference
- +0.1
- +1%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- −1.0, from 19.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 18.5 receiving yards
Line18.5Down 1 since it opened at 19.5 on Thursday. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 18.5 receiving yards
- 28A GAMEHe has averaged 28 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 18.5.
- 29thOF 32Miami gives up 75 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the 4th most in the league.
- 32ndOF 32Miami lets tight ends catch 92% of their targets this season, the highest in the league.
Under
Why he could fall short of 18.5
- 7PT FAVORITENew England is a 7 point favorite.
- 2.7TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 2.7 targets a game, 9% of New England's total, over 6 games.
- 6thFEWESTMiami lets 8% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the 6th fewest in the league.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
New England is without tight end Julian Hill, so the position’s targets stay with Raridon. Across from him, Miami is missing two linebackers, the players who usually cover tight ends.
RaridonNo injury designation
Around himNew England Patriots
4 of 33 touch Raridon
This week
- QuestionableA.J. BrownWR · kneeFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJulian HillTELeaves the tight end targets to him
- IRMack HollinsWRFrees targets
- IRRomeo DoubsWRFrees targets
Across from himMiami Dolphins
9 of 25 touch Raridon
This week
- QuestionableDante Trader Jr.SAF · shoulderCovers tight ends
- QuestionableJulius BrentsCB · concussionIn pass coverage
- QuestionableMichael TaaffeSAF · neckCovers tight ends
- QuestionableReese TaylorDB · quadricepCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPDarrell Baker Jr.CBIn pass coverage
- IRRonnie HarrisonLBCovers tight ends
- IRTrey MooreLBCovers tight ends
Off the report this week
- ClearedKyle LouisLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
- ClearedWillie Gay Jr.LB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3325ShowHide
NE · New England Patriots
33 listed- Ben BrownGOut last week
- A.J. BrownWR · kneeQuestionable
- DaQuan JonesDE · backQuestionable
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · illnessQuestionable
- Alijah Vera-TuckerG · hamstringIR
- Dell PettusSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Greg Van RotenG · Not specifiedIR
- Harold Landry IIILB · Not specifiedPUP
- Julian HillTE · Not specifiedIR
- Khalil JacobsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Mack HollinsWR · Not specifiedIR
- Marcus BryantOT · Not specifiedIR
- Mike OnwenuG · Not specifiedIR
- Myles MontgomeryRB · Not specifiedIR
- Quintayvious HutchinsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Reggie GilliamRB · Not specifiedIR
- Romeo DoubsWR · Not specifiedIR
- Brenden SchoolerSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
- Carlton Davis IIICB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (neck)Cleared
- Channing CanadaCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Charles WoodsCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Christian BarmoreDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Christian EllissLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
- Christian GonzalezCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (illness)Cleared
- Craig WoodsonSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (shoulder)Cleared
- Dametrious CrownoverOT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Dre'Mont JonesLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Karon PruntyCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Kevin ByardFS · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
- Morgan MosesOT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (foot)Cleared
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Ryan MillerWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (hip, back)—
- Will CampbellOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
MIA · Miami Dolphins
25 listed- Dante Trader Jr.SAF · shoulderQuestionable
- Greg DulcichTE · ankleQuestionable
- Jared WayneWR · kneeQuestionable
- Julius BrentsCB · concussionQuestionable
- Malik WashingtonWR · kneeQuestionable
- Michael TaaffeSAF · neckQuestionable
- Reese TaylorDB · quadricepQuestionable
- Will KacmarekTE · hamstringQuestionable
- Carter WarrenOT · Not specifiedIR
- Cole TurnerTE · Not specifiedIR
- Darrell Baker Jr.CB · Not specifiedPUP
- De'Von AchaneRB · Not specifiedIR
- Rene KongaDE · Not specifiedIR
- Ronnie HarrisonLB · Not specifiedIR
- Trey MooreLB · Not specifiedIR
- Caleb DouglasWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Chop RobinsonLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
- Jackson WoodardLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Jaylen WrightRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
- Justin JolyTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Kenneth GrantDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (toe)—
- Kyle LouisLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
- Rob Beal Jr.DE · Last listed Wk 7: Doubtful (hamstring)Cleared
- Tucker AddingtonLS · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
- Willie Gay Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (illness)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 18.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 18.6
- +0.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 3 of 6
- 50% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 5
- each week's own close
- Median
- 21
- regular season
- Average
- 28
- +9.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 56 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 30 | 60%3/5 | 75%3/4 |
| Season | 21 | 50%3/6 | 60%3/5 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 28
- yards
- Median
- 21
- yards
- Above 18.5
- 3 of 6
- 50% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ SEA | 2 | 5.5 | −3.5 |
| Week 2 | vs PIT | 30 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ BUF | 12 | 5.5 | +6.5 |
| Week 5 | vs LV | 57 | 10.5 | +46.5 |
| Week 6 | vs NYJ | 11 | 13.5 | −2.5 |
| Week 7 | @ CHI | 56 | 15.5 | +40.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | @ CHI | 54% | 4 | 3 | 56 | 30 | 1 |
| Wk 6 | vs NYJ | 57% | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs LV | 57% | 5 | 5 | 57 | 31 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | @ BUF | 58% | 2 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs PIT | 20% | 1 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 54% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Comparable players vs Miami
Other tight ends who faced Miami this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went over their line vs Miami
- Mason TaylorNYJ · Week 7Line 18.562Rec ydsOver 18.5Over+43.5
- T.J. HockensonMIN · Week 4Line 38.5119Rec ydsOver 38.5Over+80.5
- Travis KelceKC · Week 3Line 52.559Rec ydsOver 52.5Over+6.5
- Michael MayerLV · Week 1Line 41.532Rec ydsUnder 41.5Under−9.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Miami Dolphins defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Miami Dolphins actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 8 | 7.6 | 18th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 92% | 72% | 32nd of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 74.7 | 54.5 | 29th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 9.3 | 7.1 | 31st of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 6.8 | 6.1 | 22nd of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 3.8 | 4.9 | 6th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 8% | 11% | 6th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 19.6 | 25th of 32 |
| RB | 26.4 | 29th of 32 |
| WR | 23.8 | 2nd of 32 |
| TEhis position | 21.1 | 30th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Cade Otton2025 · Wk 17 | 33 |
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 8 | 59 |
| T.J. Hockenson2026 · Wk 4 | 119 |
| Harold Fannin Jr.2025 · Wk 7 | 36 |
| Michael Mayer2026 · Wk 1 | 32 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 43
- combined
- NE implied total
- 25
- favored
- MIA implied total
- 18
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 6 mph
- Rain
- Conditions
- 73°F
- outdoor · 100% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 61.3
- 7-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 36.9
- 60% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.1
- 7-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +0.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 4: Q (thigh)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 54%
- Games missed this season
- 1
If Raridon sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Cameron LatuTE · 17% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Kyle WilliamsWR+1.1targets
- Mack HollinsWR+1targets
- Corey KinerRB+0.3targets
Based on 2 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 18.5 | 18.6Nuvela projection | +0.1 | 3 of 5 | 19.5 | −1.0 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.8Nuvela projection | +0.3 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 19% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 21% | −2% |
| Longest Reception | 14.5 | 13.0Nuvela | −1.5 | 3 of 5 | 14.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 5% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 5% | level |
| Last TD | 5% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 5% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 2:24 PM19.5opened
- Fri 8:26 AM18.5−1.0
Opened 19.5, now 18.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 18.5 | −116 | −108 |
| FanDuel | 19.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Eli Raridon's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Eli Raridon's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Eli Raridon's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Eli Raridon's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
