nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 8 · SUNDAY

Patriots vs Dolphins Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1 · 1:25 PM PT
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, rain

Largest gaps vs typical error

  1. Drake MayeNE · RUSH ATTEMPTS
    Line
    4.5
    Nuvela projection
    5.2
    Gap
    +0.7
  2. Malik WillisMIA · RUSHING YARDS
    Line
    33.5
    Nuvela projection
    30.2
    Gap
    −3.3
  3. Drake MayeNE · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    233.5
    Nuvela projection
    242.7
    Gap
    In line with market
  4. Malik WillisMIA · PASSING YARDS
    Line
    183.5
    Nuvela projection
    192.3
    Gap
    In line with market
  5. Drake MayeNE · PASS + RUSH YARDS
    Line
    260.5
    Nuvela projection
    266.9
    Gap
    In line with market

The game in numbers

  • 117.3Projected play count
  • -5.4Pass rate over expected
  • 12thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Patriots25.524.4−1.1
Dolphins17.518.5+1.0
Game total43.042.9−0.1

The two sides carry the disagreement roughly evenly, so this is a read on the game rather than on either offence.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

157 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props153

Patriots · Away9 players

RUSH + REC YARDS
76.5MARKET−15.7WIDE60.8Nuvela projection
Season range 36-115RUSH ATTEMPTS
12.5MARKET−1.8MODERATE10.7Nuvela projection
Season range 6-18RUSHING YARDS
51.5MARKET−8.6WIDE42.9Nuvela projection
Season range 22-64RECEIVING YARDS
19.5MARKET−1.6In line with market17.9Nuvela projection
Season range 0-93RECEPTIONS
2.5MARKET0.0In line with market2.5Nuvela projection
Season range 0-5LONGEST RECEPTION
11.5MARKET+3.8WIDE15.3Nuvela
Season range 3-48LONGEST RUSH
11.5MARKET · 1 BOOK+0.8GAP12.3Nuvela
Season range 5-241ST TD
18%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this marketANYTIME TD
57%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Season range 0-1LAST TD
17%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
No range for this market
Depth and touchdown only · 3 players · 9 props

Dolphins · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 7 players · 21 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
43.0MARKET−0.1GAP42.942.9
Season range 23-62
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
NE by 7.0MARKET+1.1GAP5.9NE by 5.9
Season range 3-29

Team props2

Patriots · Away1 market

PatriotsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
25.5MARKET−1.1GAP24.4Nuvela
Season range 6-45

Dolphins · Home1 market

DolphinsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
17.5MARKET+1.0GAP18.5Nuvela
Season range 10-28