Where do Germie Bernard's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Germie Bernard's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Germie Bernard's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Germie Bernard's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers#17

Germie Bernard

Updated Oct 29, 1:40 PM PT

Germie Bernard's receiving yards line is 44.5 for Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 40.5. 6 of 8 markets posted.

vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8

Line: 44.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 40.5; this week · small sample
Difference: −4.0; −9%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 8
Line since open: −2.0, from 46.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:01 PM PT

Highlights

Line44.5Down 2 since it opened at 46.5 on Wednesday, after swinging between 44.5 and 47.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 44.5 receiving yards

25%LAST 3 GAMESHis target share over his last 3 games is 25%, up from 10% before that.
32ndOF 32Cleveland lets 16% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the most in the league.
−2SINCE WEDThe line opened at 46.5 and has moved down to 44.5.

Under

Why he could fall short of 44.5

2/6GAMESHe has topped 44.5 in 2 of his last 6 games, and his typical game is 31 receiving yards. One of those misses came in a game he left early.
6thLOWESTCleveland lets receivers catch 58% of their targets this season, the 6th lowest in the league.
39.5TOTALThe game total is 39.5, a low scoring matchup.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Pittsburgh is without three other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Bernard. Across from him, Myles Harden (CB) is questionable, and nobody else who usually covers receivers is listed.

BernardNo injury designation

Around himPittsburgh Steelers

4 of 22 touch Bernard

This week

QuestionableBen SkowronekWR · calfFrees targets at his spot

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCole BurgessWRFrees targets at his spot
IRMichael PittmanWRFrees targets at his spot
IRRoman WilsonWRFrees targets at his spot

Across from himCleveland Browns

4 of 30 touch Bernard

This week

QuestionableDaniel ThomasSAF · ankleDeep coverage
QuestionableMyles HardenCB · hamstringCovers receivers

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDamarri MathisDBDeep coverage

Off the report this week

ClearedDenzel WardCB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2230Show

PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers

22 listed

Brandin EcholsCB · hamstringOut
Doneiko SlaughterDB · hamstringOut
Ben SkowronekWR · calfQuestionable
Cole BurgessWR · Not specifiedIR
Daequan HardyCB · Not specifiedIR
Derrick HarmonDT · Not specifiedIR
Donte KentCB · Not specifiedPUP
Gennings DunkerG · Not specifiedIR
Jack DriscollOT · Not specifiedIR
Logan LeeDT · Not specifiedIR
Michael PittmanWR · Not specifiedIR
Roman WilsonWR · Not specifiedIR
Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsIR
DeShon ElliottSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Jalen RamseyCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
Jamel DeanCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Jaylen WarrenRB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Keeanu BentonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Pat FreiermuthTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)—
Rico DowdleRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Troy FautanuOT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (ankle)—
Yahya BlackDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q—

CLE · Cleveland Browns

30 listed

Dillon GabrielQBOut last week
Daniel ThomasSAF · ankleQuestionable
Myles HardenCB · hamstringQuestionable
Alex WrightDE · Not specifiedIR
Damarri MathisDB · Not specifiedIR
Edefuan UlofoshioLB · Not specifiedIR
Elijah ChatmanDT · Not specifiedIR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Not specifiedPUP
Joe RoyerTE · Not specifiedPUP
Kalia DavisDT · quadricepIR
Raheim SandersRB · Not specifiedIR
Teven JenkinsG · backIR
Bub MeansWRPractice squad
John Saunders Jr.SAFInactive
Audric EstiméRB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (thigh)—
Carsen RyanTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (calf)—
Carson SchwesingerLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Denzel WardCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hand)Cleared
Derek BarnettDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Dylan SampsonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Elgton JenkinsC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
Grant DelpitSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Mason GrahamDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee, ankle)—
Mike Hall Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Noah IgbinogheneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hand)—
Parker BrailsfordC · Last listed Wk 1: Q (thumb)—
Quincy WilliamsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Quinshon JudkinsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tylan WallaceWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
Tyson CampbellCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 6

against the posted 44.5

—W1

at NE

CIN

at CLE

IND

at TB

at NO

40.5vs CLE

Cleared 44.5Under 44.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line44.5

Consensus line: 44.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 40.5; −4.0 on the line
Above the line: 2 of 6; 33% of the sample
vs closing lines: 4 of 5; each week's own close
Median: 31; regular season
Average: 42.3; −2.2 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	80	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	27	40%2/5	75%3/4
Season	31	33%2/6	80%4/5
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

6 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 6; of 7
Average: 42.3; yards
Median: 31; yards
Above 44.5: 2 of 6; 33% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs ATL	—	—	—
Week 2	@ NE	35	15.5	+19.5
Week 3	vs CIN	14	—	—
Week 4	@ CLE	11	8.5	+2.5
Week 5	vs IND	80	19.5	+60.5
Week 6	@ TB	87	44.5	+42.5
Week 7	@ NO	27	53.5	−26.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 7	@ NO	5	3	27	20	8	0
Wk 6	@ TB	12	11	87	19	1.5	1
Wk 5	vs IND	9	6	80	25	5.8	0
Wk 4	@ CLE	2	2	11	6	—	0
Wk 3	vs CIN	1	1	14	14	—	0
Wk 2	@ NE	8	4	35	19	8	0
Wk 1	vs ATL	—	—	—	—	—	—

Comparable players vs Cleveland

9 of 14

wide receivers went over their line vs Cleveland

Bernard this weekLine44.5Nuvela projection40.5

Carnell TateTEN · Week 7Line 52.569Rec ydsOver 52.5Over+16.5
Elic AyomanorTEN · Week 7Line 17.544Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+26.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Week 7Line 34.57Rec ydsUnder 34.5Under−27.5
Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · Week 6Line 9.540Rec ydsOver 9.5Over+30.5
Zay FlowersBAL · Week 6Line 58.566Rec ydsOver 58.5Over+7.5
Garrett WilsonNYJ · Week 5Line 66.5104Rec ydsOver 66.5Over+37.5
Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · Week 5Line 22.516Rec ydsUnder 22.5Under−6.5
DK MetcalfPIT · Week 4Line 45.5115Rec ydsOver 45.5Over+69.5
Michael PittmanPIT · Week 4Line 33.515Rec ydsUnder 33.5Under−18.5
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · Week 3Line 62.517Rec ydsUnder 62.5Under−45.5
Chris Godwin Jr.TB · Week 2Line 37.546Rec ydsOver 37.5Over+8.5
Emeka EgbukaTB · Week 2Line 52.516Rec ydsUnder 52.5Under−36.5
Jakobi MeyersJAX · Week 1Line 37.540Rec ydsOver 37.5Over+2.5
Parker WashingtonJAX · Week 1Line 53.583Rec ydsOver 53.5Over+29.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Cleveland Browns defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Cleveland Browns actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	18.9	18.4	19th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	58%	62%	6th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	150.3	148.8	20th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8	8.1	14th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	13.8	11.1	31st of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	3.8	4.3	11th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	16%	11%	32nd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	14.7	8th of 32
RB	19.4	8th of 32
WRhis position	31.8	19th of 32
TE	13.6	18th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Ja'Marr Chase2025 · Wk 18	96
Justin Jefferson2025 · Wk 5	123
DK Metcalf2026 · Wk 4	115
Tetairoa McMillan2026 · Wk 3	17
Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 12	28

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 39.5; combined
PIT implied total: 21.5; favored
CLE implied total: 18; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 30.2s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 66°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 62.3; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 41.2; 66% pass
Red-zone trips: 2.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +2.9; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share71%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %—

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share18%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share12%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share19%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g6.2

Targets per game

Yards / route run1.6

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT5.7

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 91%
Games missed this season: 0

If Bernard sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Ben SkowronekWR · 10% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 2 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	44.5	40.5Nuvela projection	−4.0	2 of 5	46.5	−2.0
Receptions	4.5	4.0Nuvela projection	−0.5	2 of 5	4.5	level
Anytime TD	26%	Market only	—	1 of 5	30%	−4%
Longest Reception	17.5	19.2Nuvela	+1.7	3 of 5	17.5	level
1st TD	8%	Market only	—	0 of 5	8%	level
Last TD	8%	Market only	—	1 of 5	8%	level
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net −2 (range 44.5–47.5)

Wed 2:03 PM46.5opened
Thu 2:04 AM47.5+1.0
Thu 10:59 AM46.5−1.0
Thu 10:59 AM45.5−1.0
Thu 10:59 AM44.5−1.0
Fri 11:01 AM44.50.0

Opened 46.5, now 44.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

6 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	45.5	−115	−115
BetOnline	44.5	−115	−112
BetRivers	47.5	−117	−114
Bovada	44.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	44.5	−114	−110
FanDuel	43.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Germie Bernard's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Germie Bernard's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Germie Bernard's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Germie Bernard's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.