RB · Minnesota Vikings#27
Jordan Mason
Updated
Jordan Mason's rushing yards line is 49.5 for Week 7 vs Indianapolis Colts (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 42.0. 5 of 10 markets posted.
vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7 · DomeQuestionable
- Line
- 49.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 42.0
- this week
- Difference
- −7.5
- −15%
- Lines checked Stale: our last odds check is over an hour old, with a kickoff inside a day
- Markets posted
- 5 of 10
- Line since open
- +3.0, from 46.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 49.5 rushing yards
Indianapolis stops 13% of runs at or behind the line this season, the 4th lowest in the league. The doubts are his share of the carries and Jones's lead role.
Line49.5Up 3 since it opened at 46.5 on Thursday. News around the move (Sat Oct 24): The Vikings activated Mason (thumb) from injured reserve Saturday, and he does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Colts.
Over
Why he could top 49.5 rushing yards
- 29thOF 32Indianapolis stops 13% of runs at or behind the line this season, the 4th lowest in the league. The league average is 17%.
- 6.5PT FAVORITEMinnesota is a 6.5-point favorite, and teams with a lead run the ball more.
- 27thOF 32Indianapolis gives up 4.6 yards a carry this season, the 6th most in the league. The league average is 4.1.
Under
Why he could fall short of 49.5
- 10%CARRIESHe gets 10% of Minnesota's carries over 1 game.
CARRIESAaron Jones is still the lead back, with 73% of the snaps and 80% of the carries this season.
- 1GAMEHe has played only 1 game this season, so there is little to go on.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Minnesota is missing two tight ends, which frees targets. Across from him, Indianapolis is missing two defensive linemen and one linebacker, the players who usually stop the run.
MasonQuestionable · thumb
Around himMinnesota Vikings
4 of 18 touch Mason
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRBryson NesbitTEFrees targets
- IRDonovan JacksonGWeakens his run blocking
- IRJosh OliverTEFrees targets
Show 1 more
- IRNick SamacCWeakens his run blocking
Across from himIndianapolis Colts
6 of 20 touch Mason
This week
- OutCJ AllenLB · ankleTackles and covers backs
- QuestionableBryce BoettcherLB · groinTackles and covers backs
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRArden KeyDEDefends the run
- IRCameron MitchellDBCovers backs downfield
- IRMicheal ClemonsDEDefends the run
Off the report this week
- ClearedJaylon CarliesLB · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1820ShowHide
MIN · Minnesota Vikings
18 listed- Bryson NesbitTE · Not specifiedIR
- Donovan JacksonG · Not specifiedIR
- Jacob RobertsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Jamal AdamsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Josh OliverTE · Not specifiedIR
- Marcus AllenDB · Not specifiedIR
- Nick SamacC · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BattyLB · Not specifiedIR
- Ben YurosekTE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Brett ThorsonP · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
- Brian O'NeillOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Charles DemmingsCB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (hamstring)—
- Christian DarrisawOT · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Jauan JenningsWR · Last listed Wk 2: Out—
- Jordan AddisonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
- Justin JeffersonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Kyler MurrayQB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
- Michael JurgensG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (elbow)—
IND · Indianapolis Colts
20 listed- Anthony GouldWR · concussionOut
- CJ AllenLB · ankleOut
- Sauce GardnerCB · calfOut
- Tyler WarrenTE · groinOut
- Bryce BoettcherLB · groinQuestionable
- Justin WalleyCB · kneeQuestionable
- Rigoberto SanchezP · footQuestionable
- Alec PierceWR · heelIR
- Arden KeyDE · Not specifiedIR
- Cameron MitchellDB · Not specifiedIR
- Carson TowtTE · Not specifiedIR
- D.J. MontgomeryWR · Not specifiedIR
- Micheal ClemonsDE · Not specifiedIR
- Ashton DulinWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Austin AjiakeLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
- Charvarius WardCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
- DJ GiddensRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Jaylon CarliesLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ribs)Cleared
- Keenan AllenWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
- Will MalloryTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (thumb)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 1
- Consensus line
- 49.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 42.0
- −7.5 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 1
- 100% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 1
- each week's own close
- Median
- 59
- regular season
- Average
- 59
- +9.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 59 | 67%2/3 | 67%2/3 |
| Last 5 | 52 | 60%3/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 59 | 100%1/1 | 100%1/1 |
| Last season | 46 | 44%7/16 | 44%7/16 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 1
- of 1
- Average
- 59
- yards
- Median
- 59
- yards
- Above 49.5
- 1 of 1
- 100% of the sample
- vs the full 1
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs GB | 59 | 44.5 | +14.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Comparable players vs Indianapolis
Other running backs who faced Indianapolis this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went over their line vs Indianapolis
- Tony PollardTEN · Week 6Line 57.576Rush ydsOver 57.5Over+18.5
- Jaylen WarrenPIT · Week 5Line 73.5101Rush ydsOver 73.5Over+27.5
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · Week 4Line 59.515Rush ydsUnder 59.5Under−44.5
- David MontgomeryHOU · Week 3Line 50.533Rush ydsUnder 50.5Under−17.5
- Kenneth Walker IIIKC · Week 2Line 83.5117Rush ydsOver 83.5Over+33.5
- Derrick HenryBAL · Week 1Line 78.5144Rush ydsOver 78.5Over+65.5
- Justice HillBAL · Week 1Line 8.518Rush ydsOver 8.5Over+9.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Indianapolis Colts defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Indianapolis Colts actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 21 | 21.9 | 13th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 95.8 | 89.5 | 19th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.6 | 4.1 | 27th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 13% | 17% | 29th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 10% | 11% | 14th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 35% | 23% | 3rd of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18.4 | 21st of 32 |
| RBhis position | 23.9 | 27th of 32 |
| WR | 30.8 | 14th of 32 |
| TE | 13.3 | 19th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren2026 · Wk 5 | 101 |
| Bijan Robinson2025 · Wk 10 | 84 |
| Kenneth Walker III2026 · Wk 2 | 117 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 16 | 117 |
| Tony Pollard2026 · Wk 6 | 76 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 41.5
- combined
- MIN implied total
- 24
- favored
- IND implied total
- 17.5
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 31.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59.6
- 5-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 33.7
- 57% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.6
- 5-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −4.0
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Thumb
- Game status
- Questionable
- Snap share, last game
- 45%
- Games missed this season
- 4
If Mason sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Max BredesonRB · 23% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 38% | Market only | — | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 39% | −1% |
| Rushing Yards | 49.5 | 42.0Nuvela projection | −7.5 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 46.5 | +3.0 |
| Rush Attempts | 12.5 | 10.8Tank01 projection | −1.7 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 11.5 | +1.0 |
| 1st TD | 12% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 13% | level |
| Last TD | 12% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 13% | −1% |
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 4:00 PM46.5opened
- Fri 3:00 PM49.5+3.0
- Fri 8:04 PM48.5−1.0
- Sat 4:03 PM49.5+1.0The Vikings activated Mason (thumb) from injured reserve Saturday, and he does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Colts.
Opened 46.5, now 49.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 49.5 | −111 | −118 |
| BetOnline | 48.5 | −116 | −111 |
| BetRivers | 48.5 | −114 | −117 |
| DraftKings | 49.5 | −111 | −113 |
| FanDuel | 49.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
