Where do Josh Cuevas's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Josh Cuevas's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Josh Cuevas's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Josh Cuevas's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

TE · Baltimore Ravens#85

Josh Cuevas

Updated Oct 29, 6:28 PM PT

Josh Cuevas' receiving yards line is 10.5 for Week 8 at Buffalo Bills (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 14.4. 6 of 7 markets posted.

@ Buffalo Bills · Week 8

Line: 10.5; Receiving Yards
Nuvela projection: 14.4; this week · small sample
Difference: +3.9; +37%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:08 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 7
Line since open: level, from 10.5
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:09 PM PT

Highlights

Line10.5Back at 10.5, where it opened on Wednesday, after swinging between 8.5 and 11.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.

Over

Why he could top 10.5 receiving yards

30thOF 32Buffalo gives up 78 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the 3rd most in the league.
54.5TOTALThe game total is 54.5, a high scoring matchup.
23.8A GAMEHe has averaged about 24 receiving yards over his last 5 games, against a line of 10.5.

Under

Why he could fall short of 10.5

2.2TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 2.2 targets a game, 7% of Baltimore's total, over 7 games.
2ndSLOWESTBaltimore runs the 2nd slowest pace in the league.
8thLOWESTBuffalo lets tight ends catch 68% of their targets this season, the 8th lowest in the league.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Baltimore is without tight end Durham Smythe, so the position’s targets stay with Cuevas. Across from him, Buffalo is missing one linebacker and one safety, the players who usually cover tight ends.

CuevasNo injury designation

Around himBaltimore Ravens

3 of 27 touch Cuevas

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDurham SmytheTELeaves the tight end targets to him
IRSkylar ThompsonQBChanges who throws to him

Off the report this week

ClearedLamar JacksonQB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himBuffalo Bills

6 of 22 touch Cuevas

This week

SuspendedC.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionCovers tight ends
QuestionableDee AlfordCB · ankleIn pass coverage
QuestionableTJ ParkerLB · kneeCovers tight ends

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesLBCovers tight ends
PUPDorian StrongCBIn pass coverage
IRJordan HancockCBIn pass coverage

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2722Show

BAL · Baltimore Ravens

27 listed

Jaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeOut
Adam RandallRB · neckIR
Bilhal KoneCB · Not specifiedIR
Danny PinterG · Not specifiedIR
Durham SmytheTE · Not specifiedIR
Ethan PocicC · Not specifiedIR
Jahquez RobinsonSAF · Not specifiedIR
Jovaughn GwynC · Not specifiedIR
Skylar ThompsonQB · Not specifiedIR
T.J. TampaCB · kneeIR
Tavius RobinsonLB · pectoralIR
Andrew VorheesG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)—
Broderick WashingtonDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
Cam JurgensG · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
Chris MooreWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle)—
Devontez WalkerWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
Emery Jones Jr.OT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
John SimpsonG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
Lamar JacksonQB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Marlon HumphreyCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring, calf)—
Matthew HibnerTE · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hand)—
Nnamdi MadubuikeDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (neck)—
Ronnie StanleyOT · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Teddye BuchananLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
Trey HendricksonLB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (finger)—
Zay FlowersWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—

BUF · Buffalo Bills

22 listed

DJ MooreWR · shoulderQuestionable
Dalton KincaidTE · chestQuestionable
Dee AlfordCB · ankleQuestionable
Greg GainesDT · calfQuestionable
TJ ParkerLB · kneeQuestionable
Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesLB · Not specifiedIR
Desmond ReidRB · Not specifiedIR
Dorian StrongCB · Not specifiedPUP
Jordan HancockCB · Not specifiedIR
Tyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclPUP
Zane DurantDT · Not specifiedIR
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionSuspended
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsG · Last listed Wk 3: Q (elbow)—
Christian BenfordCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (toe)—
Cole BishopSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee, groin)—
Ed OliverDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Josh PalmerWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
Keon ColemanWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (ankle)—
Landon JacksonDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Ray DavisRB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
T.J. SandersDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
Ty JohnsonRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 5

against the posted 10.5

—W1

—W2

at DAL

TEN

at ATL

at CLE

CIN

14.4vs BUF

Cleared 10.5Under 10.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line10.5

Consensus line: 10.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 14.4; +3.9 on the line
Above the line: 4 of 5; 80% of the sample
vs closing lines: 2 of 2; each week's own close
Median: 26; regular season
Average: 23.8; +13.3 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	35	100%3/3	100%2/2
Last 5	26	80%4/5	100%2/2
Season	26	80%4/5	100%2/2
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

5 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 5; of 7
Average: 23.8; yards
Median: 26; yards
Above 10.5: 4 of 5; 80% of the sample
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ IND	—	—	—
Week 2	vs NO	—	—	—
Week 3	@ DAL	14	—	—
Week 4	vs TEN	0	—	—
Week 5	@ ATL	26	—	—
Week 6	@ CLE	44	5.5	+38.5
Week 7	vs CIN	35	4.5	+30.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Snap%	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	TD
Wk 7	vs CIN	22%	3	2	35	19	0
Wk 6	@ CLE	40%	5	4	44	29	1
Wk 5	@ ATL	25%	2	2	26	17	0
Wk 4	vs TEN	28%	0	0	0	—	0
Wk 3	@ DAL	25%	1	1	14	14	0
Wk 2	vs NO	9%	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 1	@ IND	9%	—	—	—	—	—

Comparable players vs Buffalo

7 of 10

tight ends went over their line vs Buffalo

Cuevas this weekLine10.5Nuvela projection14.4

Brock BowersLV · Week 6Line 80.570Rec ydsUnder 80.5Under−10.5
Michael MayerLV · Week 6Line 27.595Rec ydsOver 27.5Over+67.5
Colby ParkinsonLA · Week 5Line 17.53Rec ydsUnder 17.5Under−14.5
Davis AllenLA · Week 5Line 4.524Rec ydsOver 4.5Over+19.5
Tyler HigbeeLA · Week 5Line 25.583Rec ydsOver 25.5Over+57.5
Eli RaridonNE · Week 4Line 5.512Rec ydsOver 5.5Over+6.5
Hunter HenryNE · Week 4Line 30.562Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+31.5
Oronde Gadsden IILAC · Week 3Line 37.50Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−37.5
Sam LaPortaDET · Week 2Line 46.552Rec ydsOver 46.5Over+5.5
Dalton SchultzHOU · Week 1Line 34.535Rec ydsOver 34.5Over+0.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Buffalo Bills defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Buffalo Bills actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	9.5	7.6	30th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	68%	72%	8th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	77.5	54.5	30th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8.2	7.1	25th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	6.6	6.1	18th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	5.9	4.9	26th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	10%	11%	15th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	21.8	29th of 32
RB	27.3	30th of 32
WR	42.3	32nd of 32
TEhis position	15.2	21st of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Brock Bowers2026 · Wk 6	70
Sam LaPorta2026 · Wk 2	52
Cade Otton2025 · Wk 11	28
Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 6	18
Travis Kelce2025 · Wk 9	66

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 54.5; combined
BAL implied total: 25.75; underdog
BUF implied total: 28.75; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 32.1s; seconds / play
Wind: 4 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 62°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 60.9; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 34.1; 56% pass
Red-zone trips: 3.4; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −3.9; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share28%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %—

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share7%

Of all his team's targets

RZ target share7%

Inside the opponent's 20

Inside-10 tgt share14%

Of the team's targets inside the 10

aDOT4.5

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 22%
Games missed this season: 0

If Cuevas sits

If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.

Next up

Matthew HibnerTE · 39% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 1 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	10.5	14.4Nuvela projection	+3.9	4 of 5	10.5	level
Receptions	1.5	1.6Nuvela projection	+0.1	3 of 5	1.5	level
Anytime TD	9%	Market only	—	1 of 5	11%	−2%
Longest Reception	9.5	18.7Nuvela	+9.2	4 of 4	9.5	level
1st TD	2%	Market only	—	1 of 5	2%	level
Last TD	2%	Market only	—	0 of 5	2%	level
2+ TDs	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net 0 (range 8.5–11.5)

Wed 2:03 PM10.5opened
Wed 8:03 PM9.5−1.0
Wed 8:03 PM10.5+1.0
Thu 10:59 AM11.5+1.0
Thu 4:59 PM8.5−3.0
Fri 11:01 AM10.5+2.0

Opened 10.5, now 10.5.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

5 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
BetMGM	8.5	−155	+115
BetOnline	10.5	−118	−110
Bovada	10.5	−115	−115
DraftKings	10.5	−112	−112
FanDuel	10.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Josh Cuevas's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Josh Cuevas's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Josh Cuevas's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Josh Cuevas's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.