TE · Buffalo Bills#88
Dawson Knox
Updated
Dawson Knox's receiving yards line is 7.5 for Week 8 vs Baltimore Ravens (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 12.8. 6 of 7 markets posted.
vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8
- Line
- 7.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 12.8
- this week
- Difference
- +5.3
- +71%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 7
- Line since open
- level, from 7.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 7.5 receiving yards
Line7.5Hasn't moved since it opened Wed 2:03 PM PT, at BetOnline, DraftKings and 1 more.
Over
Why he could top 7.5 receiving yards
- 54.5TOTALThe game total is 54.5, a high scoring matchup.
- 9.5PREVIOUS LOWAt 7.5, this is the lowest line he has seen this season. His others ran from 9.5 to 13.5.
- 4YDS DOWNFIELDHis average target is 4 yards downfield, and Baltimore allows 6.3 yards after the catch, the 5th most in the league.
Under
Why he could fall short of 7.5
- 1/6GAMESHe has topped 7.5 in 1 of his last 6 games, and his typical game is 5.5 receiving yards.
- 1stSHORTESTBaltimore lets the ball travel 3.4 air yards a target to tight ends this season, the shortest in the league.
- 6thFEWESTBaltimore gives up 39 receiving yards a game to tight ends this season, the 6th fewest in the league.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Buffalo is missing one receiver, which frees targets. Across from him, Baltimore is missing one safety and one linebacker, the players who usually cover tight ends.
KnoxNo injury designation
Around himBuffalo Bills
3 of 23 touch Knox
This week
- QuestionableDJ MooreWR · shoulderFrees targets
- QuestionableDalton KincaidTE · chestLeaves the tight end targets to him
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPTyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclFrees targets
Across from himBaltimore Ravens
7 of 29 touch Knox
This week
- QuestionableJaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeCovers tight ends
- QuestionableKyle HamiltonSAF · kneeCovers tight ends
- QuestionableRoquan SmithILB · kneeCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRBilhal KoneCBIn pass coverage
- IRJahquez RobinsonSAFCovers tight ends
- IRT.J. TampaCB · kneeIn pass coverage
Show 1 more
- IRTavius RobinsonLB · pectoralCovers tight ends
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2329ShowHide
BUF · Buffalo Bills
23 listed- Bradley ChubbOLB · chestQuestionable
- DJ MooreWR · shoulderQuestionable
- Dalton KincaidTE · chestQuestionable
- Dee AlfordCB · ankleQuestionable
- Joe AndreessenLB · kneeQuestionable
- Ray DavisRB · illnessQuestionable
- TJ ParkerLB · kneeQuestionable
- Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesLB · Not specifiedIR
- Desmond ReidRB · Not specifiedIR
- Dorian StrongCB · Not specifiedPUP
- Jordan HancockCB · Not specifiedIR
- Tyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclPUP
- Zane DurantDT · Not specifiedIR
- C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionSuspended
- Ar'maj Reed-AdamsG · Last listed Wk 3: Q (elbow)—
- Christian BenfordCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (toe)—
- Cole BishopSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee, groin)—
- Ed OliverDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Josh PalmerWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
- Keon ColemanWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (ankle)—
- Landon JacksonDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- T.J. SandersDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
- Ty JohnsonRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)—
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
29 listed- Jaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeQuestionable
- Kyle HamiltonSAF · kneeQuestionable
- Lamar JacksonQB · ankleQuestionable
- Roquan SmithILB · kneeQuestionable
- Adam RandallRB · neckIR
- Bilhal KoneCB · Not specifiedIR
- Danny PinterG · Not specifiedIR
- Durham SmytheTE · Not specifiedIR
- Ethan PocicC · Not specifiedIR
- Jahquez RobinsonSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Jovaughn GwynC · Not specifiedIR
- Skylar ThompsonQB · Not specifiedIR
- T.J. TampaCB · kneeIR
- Tavius RobinsonLB · pectoralIR
- Andrew VorheesG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)—
- Broderick WashingtonDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Cam JurgensG · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
- Chris MooreWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle)—
- Devontez WalkerWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
- Emery Jones Jr.OT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
- John SimpsonG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
- Marlon HumphreyCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring, calf)—
- Matthew HibnerTE · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hand)—
- Nnamdi MadubuikeDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (neck)—
- Ronnie StanleyOT · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Teddye BuchananLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Trey HendricksonLB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (finger)—
- Zay FlowersWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 7.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 12.8
- +5.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 6
- 17% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 6
- each week's own close
- Median
- 5.5
- regular season
- Average
- 6
- −1.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 6 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 20%1/5 | 20%1/5 |
| Season | 5.5 | 17%1/6 | 17%1/6 |
| Last season | 21.5 | 94%15/16 | 67%10/15 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 6
- yards
- Median
- 5.5
- yards
- Above 7.5
- 1 of 6
- 17% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ HOU | 7 | 13.5 | −6.5 |
| Week 2 | vs DET | 5 | 12.5 | −7.5 |
| Week 3 | vs LAC | 5 | 9.5 | −4.5 |
| Week 4 | vs NE | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 |
| Week 5 | @ LA | 6 | 11.5 | −5.5 |
| Week 6 | @ LV | 0 | 12.5 | −12.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ LV | 69% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ LA | 70% | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 61% | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 70% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 76% | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 67% | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Baltimore
Other tight ends who faced Baltimore this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went under their line vs Baltimore
- Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · Week 6Line 36.59Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−27.5
- Kyle PittsATL · Week 5Line 24.542Rec ydsOver 24.5Over+17.5
- Gunnar HelmTEN · Week 4Line 19.55Rec ydsUnder 19.5Under−14.5
- Jake FergusonDAL · Week 3Line 28.523Rec ydsUnder 28.5Under−5.5
- Juwan JohnsonNO · Week 2Line 35.566Rec ydsOver 35.5Over+30.5
- Tyler WarrenIND · Week 1Line 47.513Rec ydsUnder 47.5Under−34.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Baltimore Ravens defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Baltimore Ravens actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 5.4 | 7.6 | 1st of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 76% | 72% | 25th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 39 | 54.5 | 6th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 7.2 | 7.1 | 16th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 3.4 | 6.1 | 1st of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 6.3 | 4.9 | 28th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 8% | 11% | 4th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 16.9 | 17th of 32 |
| RB | 18.5 | 5th of 32 |
| WR | 35.8 | 25th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 12.3 | 13th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Tyler Warren2026 · Wk 1 | 13 |
| T.J. Hockenson2025 · Wk 10 | 8 |
| Harold Fannin Jr.2026 · Wk 6 | 9 |
| Mason Taylor2025 · Wk 12 | 21 |
| Sam LaPorta2025 · Wk 3 | 33 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 54.5
- combined
- BUF implied total
- 28.75
- favored
- BAL implied total
- 25.75
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 4 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 62°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 33.9
- 57% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −2.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 69%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Knox sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Jackson HawesTE · 41% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 12.8Nuvela projection | +5.3 | 1 of 5 | 7.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.6Nuvela projection | +0.1 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 15% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 14% | level |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | 8.0Nuvela | +0.5 | 1 of 5 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Wed 2:03 PM7.5opened
- Thu 4:59 PM7.50.0
Opened 7.5, now 7.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 7.5 | −116 | −111 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 | −119 | −105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Dawson Knox's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Dawson Knox's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Dawson Knox's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Dawson Knox's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
