RB · San Francisco 49ers
Khalil Herbert
Khalil Herbert's rushing yards line is 7.5 for Week 7 at Atlanta Falcons (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 22.8. 5 of 10 markets posted.
@ Atlanta Falcons · Week 7
- Line
- 7.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 22.8
- this week
- Difference
- +15.3
- +204%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 5 of 10
- Line since open
- level, from 7.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 7.5 rushing yards
San Francisco is expected to score 26.5 points, so more chances to run. The doubts are McCaffrey's lead role and Atlanta's loaded boxes (the 4th highest in the league).
Line7.5Hasn't moved since it opened Sat 4:02 PM PT, at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Over
Why he could top 7.5 rushing yards
- 26.5SF POINTSSan Francisco is expected to score 26.5 points, so more chances to run.
Under
Why he could fall short of 7.5
CARRIESChristian McCaffrey is still the lead back, with 72% of the snaps and 61% of the carries this season.
- 4thHIGHESTAtlanta puts 8 or more in the box on 35% of carries this season, the 4th highest in the league. The league average is 23%.
- 8thFEWESTAtlanta gives up 77 rushing yards a game to running backs this season, the 8th fewest in the league. The league average is 90.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
San Francisco is without running back Isaac Guerendo, so more of the backfield work stays with Herbert. Across from him, Atlanta is missing five linebackers and three defensive linemen, the players who usually stop the run.
HerbertNo injury designation
Around himSan Francisco 49ers
12 of 38 touch Herbert
This week
- OutBrandon AiyukWRFrees targets
- OutDeebo Samuel Sr.WR · hamstringFrees targets
- OutMike EvansWR · ribs, achillesFrees targets
- QuestionableChristian KirkWR · calfFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPIsaac GuerendoRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
- IRAusten PleasantsOLWeakens his run blocking
- IRBrett TothGWeakens his run blocking
Show 5 more
- IRDe'Zhaun StriblingWRFrees targets
- IRDemarcus RobinsonWRFrees targets
- IRJake TongesTEFrees targets
- IRNick ZakeljOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRRicky PearsallWRFrees targets
Across from himAtlanta Falcons
12 of 27 touch Herbert
This week
- OutDivine DeabloLB · forearmTackles and covers backs
- SuspendedJames Pearce Jr.DEDefends the run
- QuestionableGervon Dexter Sr.DT · hamstringDefends the run
- QuestionableKendal DanielsLB · neckTackles and covers backs
- QuestionableSamson EbukamDE · hamstringDefends the run
- QuestionableZa'Darius SmithDE · neckDefends the run
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPAnterio ThompsonDTDefends the run
- IRDa'Shawn HandDEDefends the run
- PUPDeAngelo MaloneLBTackles and covers backs
Show 3 more
- IRJD BertrandLBTackles and covers backs
- IRJalon WalkerLBTackles and covers backs
- IRYasir AbdullahLBTackles and covers backs
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3827ShowHide
SF · San Francisco 49ers
38 listed- Brandon AiyukWR · Not specifiedOut
- Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · hamstringOut
- Garret WallowLB · hamstringOut
- Luke GiffordLB · groinOut
- Marques SigleSAF · ankleOut
- Mike EvansWR · ribs, achillesOut
- Nick BosaDE · knee, calfOut
- Christian KirkWR · calfQuestionable
- Siran NealDB · kneeQuestionable
- Upton StoutCB · shoulderQuestionable
- Alfred CollinsDT · Not specifiedIR
- Andrew Farmer IILB · Not specifiedIR
- Austen PleasantsOL · Not specifiedIR
- Brett TothG · Not specifiedIR
- C.J. WestDT · Not specifiedIR
- Darrick ForrestSAF · Not specifiedIR
- De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Not specifiedIR
- Demarcus RobinsonWR · Not specifiedIR
- Isaac GuerendoRB · Not specifiedPUP
- Jake TongesTE · Not specifiedIR
- Mikail KamaraDE · Not specifiedIR
- Nate HobbsCB · Not specifiedIR
- Nick MartinLB · Not specifiedIR
- Nick ZakeljOT · Not specifiedIR
- Ricky PearsallWR · Not specifiedIR
- Sam OkuayinonuDT · Not specifiedIR
- Victor DimukejeLB · Not specifiedIR
- Eugene AsanteLBInactive
- Dre GreenlawLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
- Eddy PineiroK · Last listed Wk 2: Q (illness)—
- Gracen HaltonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)Cleared
- Jaden DuggerLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (shoulder)—
- James Thompson Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Kaelon BlackRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
- Keion WhiteDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
- Kyle JuszczykFB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
- Mykel WilliamsDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Romello HeightDE · Last listed Wk 3: Out (hand)—
ATL · Atlanta Falcons
27 listed- Billy Bowman Jr.CB · hamstringOut
- Brian RobinsonRB · hamstringOut
- Cameron WilliamsOT · ankleOut
- Divine DeabloLB · forearmOut
- Michael JerrellOT · bicepsOut
- A.J. TerrellCB · groinQuestionable
- Avieon TerrellCB · backQuestionable
- C.J. HendersonCB · groinQuestionable
- Gervon Dexter Sr.DT · hamstringQuestionable
- Kendal DanielsLB · neckQuestionable
- Olamide ZaccheausWR · shoulderQuestionable
- Samson EbukamDE · hamstringQuestionable
- Za'Darius SmithDE · neckQuestionable
- Anterio ThompsonDT · Not specifiedPUP
- Beaux CollinsWR · hipIR
- Da'Shawn HandDE · Not specifiedIR
- DeAngelo MaloneLB · Not specifiedPUP
- JD BertrandLB · Not specifiedIR
- Jalon WalkerLB · Not specifiedIR
- Storm NortonOT · Not specifiedPUP
- Trey SermonRB · Not specifiedIR
- Yasir AbdullahLB · Not specifiedIR
- James Pearce Jr.DESuspended
- Chris LindstromG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
- Jake MatthewsOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (groin)—
- Michael Penix Jr.QB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Tua TagovailoaQB · Last listed Wk 2: Doubtful (oblique)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards
No games played yet this season.
- Consensus line
- 7.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 22.8
- +15.3 on the line
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- —
- regular season
- Average
- —
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 5 | 33%1/3 | —— |
| Last 5 | 5 | 33%1/3 | —— |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 5 | 33%1/3 | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to split.
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
No games played yet this season.
Comparable players vs Atlanta
Other running backs who faced Atlanta this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went under their line vs Atlanta
- D'Andre SwiftCHI · Week 6Line 63.544Rush ydsUnder 63.5Under−19.5
- Roschon JohnsonCHI · Week 6Line 20.551Rush ydsOver 20.5Over+30.5
- Derrick HenryBAL · Week 5Line 80.5102Rush ydsOver 80.5Over+21.5
- Justice HillBAL · Week 5Line 11.573Rush ydsOver 11.5Over+61.5
- Chris BrooksGB · Week 3Line 14.50Rush ydsUnder 14.5Under−14.5
- Chuba HubbardCAR · Week 2Line 56.553Rush ydsUnder 56.5Under−3.5
- Rico DowdlePIT · Week 1Line 45.515Rush ydsUnder 45.5Under−30.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Atlanta Falcons defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Atlanta Falcons actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 19.8 | 21.9 | 8th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 77.3 | 89.5 | 8th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 3.9 | 4.1 | 13th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 19% | 17% | 9th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 8% | 11% | 4th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 35% | 23% | 4th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 18.5 | 22nd of 32 |
| RBhis position | 22.6 | 21st of 32 |
| WR | 37 | 27th of 32 |
| TE | 15.6 | 22nd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 10 | 244 |
| Breece Hall2025 · Wk 13 | 68 |
| Audric Estimé2025 · Wk 18 | 63 |
| TreVeyon Henderson2025 · Wk 9 | 55 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 7 | 129 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 50.5
- combined
- SF implied total
- 26.5
- favored
- ATL implied total
- 24
- underdog
- Projected script
- Close
- tight spread
- Pace
- 32s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 70°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 56.2
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 31.8
- 57% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +2.9
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- —
- Games missed this season
- —
If Herbert sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Kaelon BlackRB · 21% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 14% | Market only | — | 0 of 3 | 17% | −2% |
| Rushing Yards | 7.5 | 22.8Nuvela projection | +15.3 | 1 of 3 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 3 | 4% | −1% |
| Longest Rush | 5.5 | — | — | 1 of 3 | 5.5 | level |
| Last TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 3 | 3% | level |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Sat 4:02 PM7.5opened
- Sat 8:03 PM7.50.0
Opened 7.5, now 7.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 7.5 | −107 | −117 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
