RB · Los Angeles Chargers#28
Kimani Vidal
Updated
Kimani Vidal's rushing yards line is 23.5 for Week 8 at Los Angeles Rams (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 22.5. 7 of 10 markets posted.
@ Los Angeles Rams · Week 8 · Dome
- Line
- 23.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 22.5
- this week
- Difference
- −1.0
- −4%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 7 of 10
- Line since open
- level, from 23.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 23.5 rushing yards
Line23.5Hasn't moved since it opened Thu 2:04 PM PT, at BetMGM, BetOnline and 2 more.
Over
Why he could top 23.5 rushing yards
- −9.8PASS RATEOver 6 games, Los Angeles has thrown less often than most teams do in the same game situations.
- 30thOF 32Los Angeles puts 8 or more in the box on 11% of carries this season, the 3rd lowest in the league.
- 2/3WHEN TRAILEDIn the 3 games Los Angeles trailed most of the way, he topped 23.5 in 2 of them, and Los Angeles is a 6.5 point underdog this week.
Under
Why he could fall short of 23.5
- 12%CARRIESHe gets 12% of Los Angeles's carries over 6 games.
- 6.5PT UNDERDOGLos Angeles is a 6.5 point underdog.
- 2LINEMEN OUTLos Angeles is without 2 offensive linemen, tackle Joe Alt and guard Kayode Awosika.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Los Angeles Chargers is without quarterback Trey Lance, which changes who throws to Vidal. Across from him, Los Angeles Rams is missing three linebackers and two defensive linemen, the players who usually stop the run.
VidalNo injury designation
Around himLos Angeles Chargers
12 of 31 touch Vidal
This week
- QuestionableBrenen ThompsonWR · quadricepFrees targets
- QuestionableLadd McConkeyWR · concussionFrees targets
- QuestionableTre HarrisWR · hamstringFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDalevon CampbellWRFrees targets
- IRDavid NjokuTEFrees targets
- IRIsaiah WorldOTWeakens his run blocking
Show 6 more
- IRRashawn SlaterOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRSincere BrownWRFrees targets
- IRTrevor PenningOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRTrey LanceQBChanges who throws to him
- IRTrey PipkinsOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRTyler BiadaszCWeakens his run blocking
Across from himLos Angeles Rams
6 of 23 touch Vidal
This week
- QuestionableNate LandmanLB · concussionTackles and covers backs
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDaniel RickertLBTackles and covers backs
- IREddie Walls IIILBTackles and covers backs
- IRKobie TurnerDEDefends the run
Show 2 more
- IRMyles GarrettLB · kneeTackles and covers backs
- IRPoona FordDTDefends the run
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3123ShowHide
LAC · Los Angeles Chargers
31 listed- Joe AltOTOut last week
- Kayode AwosikaGOut last week
- Derwin JamesFS · hamstringDoubtful
- Brenen ThompsonWR · quadricepQuestionable
- Deane LeonardCB · concussionQuestionable
- Donte JacksonCB · hamstringQuestionable
- Ladd McConkeyWR · concussionQuestionable
- Rodney ShelleyDB · hamstringQuestionable
- Tre HarrisWR · hamstringQuestionable
- Alec IngoldFB · Not specifiedIR
- Dalevon CampbellWR · Not specifiedIR
- David NjokuTE · Not specifiedIR
- Denzel PerrymanMLB · undisclosedIR
- Isaiah WorldOT · Not specifiedIR
- Rashawn SlaterOT · Not specifiedIR
- Sincere BrownWR · Not specifiedIR
- Trevor PenningOT · Not specifiedIR
- Trey LanceQB · Not specifiedIR
- Trey PipkinsOT · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BiadaszC · Not specifiedIR
- Branson TaylorOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (neck)—
- Bud DupreeOLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q—
- Charlie KolarTE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (forearm)—
- Daiyan HenleyLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Dalvin TomlinsonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Elijah MoldenCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
- Jamaree CaldwellDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- Quentin JohnstonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (chest)—
- Scott MatlockRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
- Tuli TuipulotuLB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—
LA · Los Angeles Rams
23 listed- Colby ParkinsonTE · ribsQuestionable
- Nate LandmanLB · concussionQuestionable
- Trent McDuffieCB · groinQuestionable
- Blake GrupeK · Not specifiedIR
- Daniel RickertLB · Not specifiedIR
- Davante AdamsWR · hamstringIR
- Eddie Walls IIILB · Not specifiedIR
- Justin DedichOL · Not specifiedIR
- Kobie TurnerDE · Not specifiedIR
- Matthew CaldwellQB · Not specifiedIR
- Myles GarrettLB · kneeIR
- Poona FordDT · Not specifiedIR
- Ronnie RiversRB · Not specifiedIR
- Terrance FergusonTE · ankleIR
- Zech McPhearsonCB · Not specifiedIR
- Aaron DonaldDE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
- Jaylen WatsonCB · Last listed Wk 4: Out (shoulder)—
- Jordan WhittingtonWR · Last listed Wk 2: Doubtful (quadricep)—
- Josaiah StewartLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (groin)—
- Kam CurlSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Kamren KinchensSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Doubtful (hamstring)—
- Puka NacuaWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (calf)Cleared
- Quentin LakeSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hip)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 5
- Consensus line
- 23.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 22.5
- −1.0 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 5
- 40% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 1
- each week's own close
- Median
- 21
- regular season
- Average
- 21.8
- −1.7 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 25 | 67%2/3 | 100%1/1 |
| Last 5 | 21 | 40%2/5 | 100%1/1 |
| Season | 21 | 40%2/5 | 100%1/1 |
| Last season | 30 | 54%7/13 | 60%6/10 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 5
- of 6
- Average
- 21.8
- yards
- Median
- 21
- yards
- Above 23.5
- 2 of 5
- 40% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs ARI | — | — | — |
| Week 2 | vs LV | 0 | — | — |
| Week 3 | @ BUF | 6 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ SEA | 25 | — | — |
| Week 5 | vs DEN | 57 | — | — |
| Week 6 | @ KC | 21 | 16.5 | +4.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ KC | 7 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs DEN | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 42 | 1 | 1 |
| Wk 4 | @ SEA | 5 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Wk 3 | @ BUF | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs LV | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs LA Rams
Other running backs who faced LA Rams this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went under their line vs LA Rams
- Ashton JeantyLV · Week 7Line 50.515Rush ydsUnder 50.5Under−35.5
- Tyler AllgeierARI · Week 6Line 47.538Rush ydsUnder 47.5Under−9.5
- James CookBUF · Week 5Line 76.5111Rush ydsOver 76.5Over+34.5
- Tank BigsbyPHI · Week 4Line 7.555Rush ydsOver 7.5Over+47.5
- J.K. DobbinsDEN · Week 3Line 50.549Rush ydsUnder 50.5Under−1.5
- Cam SkatteboNYG · Week 2Line 52.536Rush ydsUnder 52.5Under−16.5
- Christian McCaffreySF · Week 1Line 59.568Rush ydsOver 59.5Over+8.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Los Angeles Rams defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Los Angeles Rams actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 22.7 | 22.1 | 19th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 85.7 | 91.1 | 16th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 3.8 | 4.1 | 8th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 18% | 17% | 12th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 10% | 11% | 15th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 11% | 23% | 30th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 17.1 | 18th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 20.3 | 13th of 32 |
| WR | 26.8 | 5th of 32 |
| TE | 10.2 | 5th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Tony Pollard2025 · Wk 2 | 92 |
| Jonathan Taylor2025 · Wk 4 | 76 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs2025 · Wk 15 | 38 |
| Bijan Robinson2025 · Wk 17 | 195 |
| Ashton Jeanty2026 · Wk 7 | 15 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 45
- combined
- LAC implied total
- 19.25
- underdog
- LA implied total
- 25.75
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 29.8s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 61.7
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 36.8
- 60% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −9.8
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 37%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Vidal sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Keaton MitchellRB · 30% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 17% | Market only | — | 2 of 5 | 17% | −1% |
| Rushing Yards | 23.5 | 22.5Nuvela projection | −1.0 | 2 of 5 | 23.5 | level |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 33.5 | 30.7Nuvela projection | −2.8 | 3 of 5 | 33.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.5Nuvela projection | 0.0 | 2 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 8.2Nuvela projection | +0.7 | 3 of 5 | 7.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | level |
| Last TD | 4% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 5% | −1% |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 2:04 PM23.5opened
- Fri 8:04 AM23.50.0
Opened 23.5, now 23.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 23.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 23.5 | −114 | −114 |
| BetRivers | 23.5 | −112 | −120 |
| Bovada | 21.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 21.5 | −113 | −111 |
| FanDuel | 23.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Kimani Vidal's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Kimani Vidal's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Kimani Vidal's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Kimani Vidal's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
