WR · New England Patriots#18
Kyle Williams
Updated
Kyle Williams' receiving yards line is 17.5 for Week 8 at Miami Dolphins (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 10.4. 6 of 8 markets posted.
@ Miami Dolphins · Week 8
- Line
- 17.5
- Receiving Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 10.4
- this week
- Difference
- −7.1
- −41%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 8
- Line since open
- level, from 17.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 17.5 receiving yards
Line17.5Back at 17.5, where it opened on Thursday, after swinging between 17.5 and 18.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 17.5 receiving yards
- 24.5A GAMEHe has averaged about 24 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 17.5.
- 31stOF 32Miami lets receivers catch 72% of their targets this season, the 2nd highest in the league.
- 25thOF 32Miami gives up 8.9 yards a target to receivers this season, the 8th most in the league.
Under
Why he could fall short of 17.5
- 1.7TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 1.7 targets a game, 6% of New England's total, over 7 games.
- 3rdFEWESTMiami gives up 116 receiving yards a game to receivers this season, the 3rd fewest in the league.
- 26%ROUTESHe runs a route on about 26% of dropbacks over 7 games.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
New England is without two other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Williams. Across from him, Miami is missing one cornerback, the players who usually cover receivers.
WilliamsNo injury designation
Around himNew England Patriots
4 of 33 touch Williams
This week
- QuestionableA.J. BrownWR · kneeFrees targets at his spot
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRMack HollinsWRFrees targets at his spot
- IRRomeo DoubsWRFrees targets at his spot
- IRJulian HillTEFrees targets
Across from himMiami Dolphins
3 of 19 touch Williams
This week
- QuestionableJulius BrentsCB · concussionCovers receivers
- QuestionableReese TaylorDB · quadricepDeep coverage
Out long term · already in his recent games
- PUPDarrell Baker Jr.CBCovers receivers
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3319ShowHide
NE · New England Patriots
33 listed- Ben BrownGOut last week
- A.J. BrownWR · kneeQuestionable
- Carlton Davis IIICB · neckQuestionable
- Christian EllissLB · chestQuestionable
- TreVeyon HendersonRB · illnessQuestionable
- Alijah Vera-TuckerG · hamstringIR
- Dell PettusSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Greg Van RotenG · Not specifiedIR
- Harold Landry IIILB · Not specifiedPUP
- Julian HillTE · Not specifiedIR
- Khalil JacobsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Mack HollinsWR · Not specifiedIR
- Marcus BryantOT · Not specifiedIR
- Mike OnwenuG · Not specifiedIR
- Myles MontgomeryRB · Not specifiedIR
- Quintayvious HutchinsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Reggie GilliamRB · Not specifiedIR
- Romeo DoubsWR · Not specifiedIR
- Brenden SchoolerSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
- Channing CanadaCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Charles WoodsCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Christian BarmoreDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Christian GonzalezCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (illness)Cleared
- Craig WoodsonSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (shoulder)Cleared
- Dametrious CrownoverOT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Dre'Mont JonesLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Eli RaridonTE · Last listed Wk 4: Q (thigh)—
- Karon PruntyCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)Cleared
- Kevin ByardFS · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
- Morgan MosesOT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (foot)Cleared
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Ryan MillerWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (hip, back)—
- Will CampbellOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
MIA · Miami Dolphins
19 listed- Julius BrentsCB · concussionQuestionable
- Reese TaylorDB · quadricepQuestionable
- Carter WarrenOT · Not specifiedIR
- Cole TurnerTE · Not specifiedIR
- Darrell Baker Jr.CB · Not specifiedPUP
- De'Von AchaneRB · Not specifiedIR
- Rene KongaDE · Not specifiedIR
- Ronnie HarrisonLB · Not specifiedIR
- Trey MooreLB · Not specifiedIR
- Caleb DouglasWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Chop RobinsonLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
- Jackson WoodardLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Jaylen WrightRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
- Justin JolyTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Kenneth GrantDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (toe)—
- Kyle LouisLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
- Rob Beal Jr.DE · Last listed Wk 7: Doubtful (hamstring)Cleared
- Tucker AddingtonLS · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
- Willie Gay Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (illness)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 7
- Consensus line
- 17.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 10.4
- −7.1 on the line
- Above the line
- 2 of 7
- 29% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 2 of 5
- each week's own close
- Median
- 10
- regular season
- Average
- 21
- +3.5 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 12 | 33%1/3 | 50%1/2 |
| Last 5 | 12 | 40%2/5 | 50%2/4 |
| Season | 10 | 29%2/7 | 40%2/5 |
| Last season | 4 | 36%5/14 | 25%1/4 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 7
- of 7
- Average
- 21
- yards
- Median
- 10
- yards
- Above 17.5
- 2 of 7
- 29% of the sample
- vs the full 7
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ SEA | 0 | 0.5 | −0.5 |
| Week 2 | vs PIT | 10 | — | — |
| Week 3 | @ JAX | 34 | 8.5 | +25.5 |
| Week 4 | @ BUF | 0 | 12.5 | −12.5 |
| Week 5 | vs LV | 91 | 13.5 | +77.5 |
| Week 6 | vs NYJ | 12 | — | — |
| Week 7 | @ CHI | 0 | 19.5 | −19.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | aDOT | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 6 | vs NYJ | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | — | 0 |
| Wk 5 | vs LV | 3 | 3 | 91 | 49 | — | 1 |
| Wk 4 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ JAX | 3 | 1 | 34 | 34 | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | vs PIT | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | — | 0 |
| Wk 1 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0 |
Comparable players vs Miami
Other wide receivers who faced Miami this season, and how they did against their line.
wide receivers went under their line vs Miami
- Garrett WilsonNYJ · Week 7Line 65.526Rec ydsUnder 65.5Under−39.5
- Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · Week 7Line 30.5115Rec ydsOver 30.5Over+84.5
- Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · Week 5Line 76.577Rec ydsOver 76.5Over+0.5
- Tee HigginsCIN · Week 5Line 51.522Rec ydsUnder 51.5Under−29.5
- Jauan JenningsMIN · Week 4Line 26.58Rec ydsUnder 26.5Under−18.5
- Jordan AddisonMIN · Week 4Line 62.552Rec ydsUnder 62.5Under−10.5
- Tai FeltonMIN · Week 4Line 15.514Rec ydsUnder 15.5Under−1.5
- Rashee RiceKC · Week 3Line 46.588Rec ydsOver 46.5Over+41.5
- Xavier WorthyKC · Week 3Line 38.520Rec ydsUnder 38.5Under−18.5
- Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · Week 2Line 35.531Rec ydsUnder 35.5Under−4.5
- Mike EvansSF · Week 2Line 49.554Rec ydsOver 49.5Over+4.5
- Jalen NailorLV · Week 1Line 37.527Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−10.5
- Tre TuckerLV · Week 1Line 45.527Rec ydsUnder 45.5Under−18.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Miami Dolphins defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Miami Dolphins actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 13 | 18.4 | 1st of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 72% | 62% | 31st of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 115.5 | 148.8 | 3rd of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 8.9 | 8.1 | 25th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 9.4 | 11.1 | 3rd of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 5.1 | 4.3 | 27th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 8% | 11% | 6th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 19.6 | 25th of 32 |
| RB | 26.4 | 29th of 32 |
| WRhis position | 23.8 | 2nd of 32 |
| TE | 21.1 | 30th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| John Metchie III2025 · Wk 14 | 34 |
| Jordan Addison2026 · Wk 4 | 52 |
| Jauan Jennings2026 · Wk 4 | 8 |
| Tetairoa McMillan2025 · Wk 5 | 73 |
| Darnell Mooney2025 · Wk 8 | 11 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 43
- combined
- NE implied total
- 25
- favored
- MIA implied total
- 18
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30.9s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 6 mph
- Rain
- Conditions
- 73°F
- outdoor · 100% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 61.3
- 7-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 36.9
- 60% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.1
- 7-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +0.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 39%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Williams sits
If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.
Next up
A.J. BrownWR · 84% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 10.4Nuvela projection | −7.1 | 2 of 5 | 17.5 | level |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.3Nuvela projection | −0.2 | 1 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 21% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 16% | +5% |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | 16.1Nuvela | +0.6 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 15.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 5% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | +1% |
| Last TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | +2% |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 2:24 PM17.5opened
- Thu 8:03 PM18.5+1.0
- Fri 8:26 AM17.5−1.0
Opened 17.5, now 17.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
- The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 17.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 17.5 | −112 | −112 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Kyle Williams's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Kyle Williams's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Kyle Williams's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Kyle Williams's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
