RB · Detroit Lions#33
Sione Vaki
Updated
Sione Vaki's rushing yards line is 4.5 for Week 8 vs Minnesota Vikings (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 5.8. 4 of 10 markets posted.
vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8 · Dome
- Line
- 4.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 5.8
- this week
- Difference
- +1.3
- +29%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 10
- Line since open
- level, from 4.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 4.5 rushing yards
Line4.5Hasn't moved since it opened Thu 4:59 PM PT, at BetOnline, Bovada and 2 more.
Over
Why he could top 4.5 rushing yards
- 9.3A GAMEHe has averaged 9.3 rushing yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 4.5.
- 8.5PREVIOUS LOWAt 4.5, this is the lowest line he has seen this season. His others ran from 8.5 to 10.5.
Under
Why he could fall short of 4.5
- 10%CARRIESHe gets 10% of Detroit's carries over 6 games.
- 7thHIGHESTMinnesota puts 8 or more in the box on 29% of carries this season, the 7th highest in the league.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Detroit is without running back Isiah Pacheco, so more of the backfield work stays with Vaki. Across from him, Minnesota is missing three linebackers, the players who usually stop the run.
VakiNo injury designation
Around himDetroit Lions
6 of 20 touch Vaki
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRIsiah PachecoRB · backFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
- IRBen BartchOTWeakens his run blocking
- IRGiovanni ManuOLWeakens his run blocking
Show 2 more
- IRKendrick LawWRFrees targets
- IRTom KennedyWRFrees targets
Off the report this week
- ClearedCade MaysC · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
Across from himMinnesota Vikings
5 of 19 touch Vaki
This week
- QuestionableJay WardSAF · kneeCovers backs downfield
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJacob RobertsLBTackles and covers backs
- IRJamal AdamsLBTackles and covers backs
- IRMarcus AllenDBCovers backs downfield
Show 1 more
- IRTyler BattyLBTackles and covers backs
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2019ShowHide
DET · Detroit Lions
20 listed- Roger McCrearyCB · footQuestionable
- Avonte MaddoxFS · Not specifiedIR
- Ben BartchOT · Not specifiedIR
- Damone ClarkLB · Not specifiedIR
- Devin WhiteLB · forearmIR
- Giovanni ManuOL · Not specifiedIR
- Isiah PachecoRB · backIR
- Kendrick LawWR · Not specifiedIR
- Kerby JosephSAF · kneePUP
- Payton TurnerDE · Not specifiedIR
- Thomas HarperSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Tom KennedyWR · Not specifiedIR
- Blake MillerOT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Brian BranchCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (achilles)Cleared
- Cade MaysC · Last listed Wk 7: Q (wrist)Cleared
- Christian IzienSAF · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
- Christian MahoganyG · Last listed Wk 2: Out (hip)—
- D.J. ReedCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (rib)—
- Rock Ya-SinCB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (hamstring)—
- Tyleik WilliamsDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
MIN · Minnesota Vikings
19 listed- Jay WardSAF · kneeQuestionable
- Donovan JacksonG · Not specifiedIR
- Jacob RobertsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Jamal AdamsLB · Not specifiedIR
- Josh OliverTE · Not specifiedIR
- Marcus AllenDB · Not specifiedIR
- Nick SamacC · Not specifiedIR
- Tyler BattyLB · Not specifiedIR
- Ben YurosekTE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Brett ThorsonP · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
- Brian O'NeillOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Charles DemmingsCB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (hamstring)—
- Christian DarrisawOT · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Jauan JenningsWR · Last listed Wk 2: Out—
- Jordan AddisonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
- Jordan MasonRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (thumb)Cleared
- Justin JeffersonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Kyler MurrayQB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
- Michael JurgensG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (elbow)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 6
- Consensus line
- 4.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 5.8
- +1.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 5 of 6
- 83% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 3 of 5
- each week's own close
- Median
- 7
- regular season
- Average
- 9.3
- +4.8 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 5 | 67%2/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 7 | 80%4/5 | 60%3/5 |
| Season | 7 | 83%5/6 | 60%3/5 |
| Last season | 4 | 0%0/1 | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 6
- of 6
- Average
- 9.3
- yards
- Median
- 7
- yards
- Above 4.5
- 5 of 6
- 83% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs NO | 7 | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ BUF | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| Week 3 | vs NYJ | 26 | 10.5 | +15.5 |
| Week 4 | @ CAR | 0 | 10.5 | −10.5 |
| Week 5 | @ ARI | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 |
| Week 7 | vs GB | 5 | 8.5 | −3.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 7 | vs GB | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ ARI | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | — | — | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Minnesota
Other running backs who faced Minnesota this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went under their line vs Minnesota
- Jonathan TaylorIND · Week 7Line 69.595Rush ydsOver 69.5Over+25.5
- Ollie Gordon IIMIA · Week 4Line 24.5100Rush ydsOver 24.5Over+75.5
- Bucky IrvingTB · Week 3Line 57.546Rush ydsUnder 57.5Under−11.5
- Kenny GainwellTB · Week 3Line 18.5−4Rush ydsUnder 18.5Under−22.5
- D'Andre SwiftCHI · Week 2Line 60.545Rush ydsUnder 60.5Under−15.5
- MarShawn LloydGB · Week 1Line 44.537Rush ydsUnder 44.5Under−7.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Minnesota Vikings defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Minnesota Vikings actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 20.7 | 22.1 | 10th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 83.8 | 91.1 | 15th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.1 | 4.1 | 12th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 19% | 17% | 10th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 10% | 11% | 13th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 29% | 23% | 7th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 7.6 | 1st of 32 |
| RBhis position | 16 | 1st of 32 |
| WR | 25.3 | 4th of 32 |
| TE | 6.9 | 1st of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley2025 · Wk 7 | 44 |
| Kimani Vidal2025 · Wk 8 | 117 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs2025 · Wk 17 | 41 |
| D'Andre Swift2026 · Wk 2 | 45 |
| Derrick Henry2025 · Wk 10 | 75 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 46
- combined
- DET implied total
- 24.75
- favored
- MIN implied total
- 21.25
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 28.3s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- Indoors
- no wind factor
- Conditions
- Dome
- climate controlled
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 65.8
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 40
- 61% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −0.6
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 13%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Vaki sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Jacob SaylorsRB
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 11% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 11% | +1% |
| Rushing Yards | 4.5 | 5.8Nuvela projection | +1.3 | 4 of 5 | 4.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 2% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | level |
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Thu 4:59 PM4.5opened
- Fri 10:59 AM4.50.0
Opened 4.5, now 4.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 4.5 | −116 | −111 |
| Bovada | 4.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 4.5 | −111 | −113 |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | −120 | −108 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Sione Vaki's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Sione Vaki's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Sione Vaki's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Sione Vaki's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
