TE · Jacksonville Jaguars#87
Nate Boerkircher
Updated
Nate Boerkircher's receiving yards line is 6.5 for Week 8 vs Indianapolis Colts (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 7.8. 4 of 7 markets posted.
vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8
- Line
- 6.5
- Receiving Yards · 1 book
- Nuvela projection
- 7.8
- this week · small sample
- Difference
- +1.3
- +20%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 4 of 7
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 6.5 receiving yards
Line6.5Hasn't moved since it opened, at FanDuel.
Over
Why he could top 6.5 receiving yards
- 10.4A GAMEHe has averaged about 10 receiving yards over his last 5 games, against a line of 6.5.
- 28.25JAX POINTSJacksonville's team total is about 28 points.
- 29thOF 32Indianapolis lets 14% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the 4th most in the league.
Under
Why he could fall short of 6.5
- 10PT FAVORITEJacksonville is a 10 point favorite.
- 1.6TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 1.6 targets a game, 6% of Jacksonville's total, over 6 games.
- 7thLOWESTIndianapolis lets tight ends catch 68% of their targets this season, the 7th lowest in the league.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Jacksonville is without quarterback Carter Bradley, which changes who throws to Boerkircher. Across from him, Indianapolis is missing one safety, the players who usually cover tight ends.
BoerkircherNo injury designation
Around himJacksonville Jaguars
2 of 18 touch Boerkircher
This week
- QuestionableJakobi MeyersWR · hamstringFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRCarter BradleyQBChanges who throws to him
Across from himIndianapolis Colts
6 of 21 touch Boerkircher
This week
- OutJustin WalleyCB · kneeIn pass coverage
- QuestionableBryce BoettcherLB · groinCovers tight ends
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRCam Taylor-BrittCB · groinIn pass coverage
- IRCameron MitchellDBCovers tight ends
Off the report this week
- ClearedCJ AllenLB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
- ClearedSauce GardnerCB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1821ShowHide
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
18 listed- Antonio JohnsonSAF · ankleOut
- Ross MatiscikLSOut last week
- Jakobi MeyersWR · hamstringQuestionable
- Anton HarrisonOT · Not specifiedIR
- BJ Green IIDE · Not specifiedIR
- Caleb RansawSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Carter BradleyQB · Not specifiedIR
- Garrett DiGiorgioOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jared BartlettLB · Not specifiedIR
- Parker HughesLB · Not specifiedIR
- Patrick MekariOT · Not specifiedIR
- Sam MustipherC · Not specifiedIR
- Zach DurfeeDE · Not specifiedIR
- Albert RegisDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (elbow)—
- Eric MurrayS · Last listed Wk 5: Doubtful (concussion)—
- Jaylon JonesDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
- LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—
- Montaric BrownCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
IND · Indianapolis Colts
21 listed- Anthony GouldWR · concussionOut
- Justin WalleyCB · kneeOut
- Andrew OgletreeTE · kneeQuestionable
- Bryce BoettcherLB · groinQuestionable
- Alec PierceWR · heelIR
- Arden KeyDE · Not specifiedIR
- Cam Taylor-BrittCB · groinIR
- Cameron MitchellDB · Not specifiedIR
- Carson TowtTE · Not specifiedIR
- D.J. MontgomeryWR · Not specifiedIR
- Micheal ClemonsDE · Not specifiedIR
- Ashton DulinWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
- Austin AjiakeLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
- CJ AllenLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
- Charvarius WardCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
- DJ GiddensRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
- Jaylon CarliesLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ribs)—
- Keenan AllenWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
- Sauce GardnerCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
- Tyler WarrenTE · Last listed Wk 7: Out (groin)Cleared
- Will MalloryTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (thumb)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Receiving Yards, last 5
- Consensus line
- 6.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 7.8
- +1.3 on the line
- Above the line
- 4 of 5
- 80% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 1
- each week's own close
- Median
- 9
- regular season
- Average
- 10.4
- +3.9 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 15 | 100%3/3 | 100%1/1 |
| Last 5 | 11.5 | 75%3/4 | 100%1/1 |
| Season | 9 | 80%4/5 | 100%1/1 |
| Last season | — | —— | —— |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 5
- of 6
- Average
- 10.4
- yards
- Median
- 9
- yards
- Above 6.5
- 4 of 5
- 80% of the sample
- vs the full 6
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Receiving Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs CLE | 9 | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ DEN | — | — | — |
| Week 3 | vs NE | 0 | — | — |
| Week 4 | @ CIN | 15 | — | — |
| Week 5 | vs PHI | 20 | — | — |
| Week 6 | vs HOU | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Snap% | Targets | Rec | Rec yds | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | vs HOU | 55% | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Wk 5 | vs PHI | 49% | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 34% | 2 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 67% | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Indianapolis
Other tight ends who faced Indianapolis this season, and how they did against their line.
tight ends went under their line vs Indianapolis
- T.J. HockensonMIN · Week 7Line 36.535Rec ydsUnder 36.5Under−1.5
- Darnell WashingtonPIT · Week 5Line 22.512Rec ydsUnder 22.5Under−10.5
- Pat FreiermuthPIT · Week 5Line 27.544Rec ydsOver 27.5Over+16.5
- Chig OkonkwoWAS · Week 4Line 29.55Rec ydsUnder 29.5Under−24.5
- Dalton SchultzHOU · Week 3Line 49.530Rec ydsUnder 49.5Under−19.5
- Noah GrayKC · Week 2Line 10.50Rec ydsUnder 10.5Under−10.5
- Travis KelceKC · Week 2Line 41.5101Rec ydsOver 41.5Over+59.5
- Mark AndrewsBAL · Week 1Line 33.549Rec ydsOver 33.5Over+15.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Indianapolis Colts defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles receivers
What Indianapolis Colts actually allows to TEs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on. | 7.1 | 7.6 | 14th of 32 |
| Catch rate allowedReceptions per target. | 68% | 72% | 7th of 32 |
| Receiving yards allowedTo this position. | 45.3 | 54.5 | 12th of 32 |
| Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position. | 6.3 | 7.1 | 11th of 32 |
| Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go. | 6.6 | 6.1 | 19th of 32 |
| Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line. | 4.2 | 4.9 | 12th of 32 |
| Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards. | 14% | 11% | 29th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 17.8 | 21st of 32 |
| RB | 22 | 18th of 32 |
| WR | 29 | 7th of 32 |
| TEhis position | 13.7 | 19th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rec yds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts2025 · Wk 10 | 38 |
| Trey McBride2025 · Wk 6 | 72 |
| Travis Kelce2026 · Wk 2 | 101 |
| AJ Barner2025 · Wk 15 | 27 |
| Brenton Strange2025 · Wk 17 | 54 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 46.5
- combined
- JAX implied total
- 28.25
- favored
- IND implied total
- 18.25
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 32.3s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 76°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59.2
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 33.1
- 56% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 3.2
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −3.7
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 55%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Boerkircher sits
If a tight end sits, the next tight end gets the routes; the targets spread to the receivers and the backs.
Next up
Tanner KoziolTE · 12% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 6.5 | 7.8Nuvela projection | +1.3 | 4 of 5 | 6.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 15% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 | 16% | −1% |
| 1st TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | −1% |
| Receptions | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Reception | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Fri 11:01 AM6.5opened
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the TE1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsmove together · 758 games+0.4
- The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Receiving Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 6.5 | −114 | −114 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Nate Boerkircher's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Nate Boerkircher's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Nate Boerkircher's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Nate Boerkircher's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
