Where do Tay Martin's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Tay Martin's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Tay Martin's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Tay Martin's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Detroit Lions#17

Tay Martin

Updated Oct 30, 6:47 AM PT

Tay Martin (WR, DET) props for Week 8 vs Minnesota Vikings: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8 · Dome

Line: —; Receiving Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:08 PM PT
Markets posted: 3 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:09 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Detroit is without two other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Martin. Across from him, Minnesota has nobody out who usually covers receivers.

MartinNo injury designation

Around himDetroit Lions

2 of 20 touch Martin

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRKendrick LawWRFrees targets at his spot
IRTom KennedyWRFrees targets at his spot

Across from himMinnesota Vikings

2 of 19 touch Martin

This week

QuestionableJay WardSAF · kneeDeep coverage

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRMarcus AllenDBDeep coverage

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2019Show

DET · Detroit Lions

20 listed

Roger McCrearyCB · footQuestionable
Avonte MaddoxFS · Not specifiedIR
Ben BartchOT · Not specifiedIR
Damone ClarkLB · Not specifiedIR
Devin WhiteLB · forearmIR
Giovanni ManuOL · Not specifiedIR
Isiah PachecoRB · backIR
Kendrick LawWR · Not specifiedIR
Kerby JosephSAF · kneePUP
Payton TurnerDE · Not specifiedIR
Thomas HarperSAF · Not specifiedIR
Tom KennedyWR · Not specifiedIR
Blake MillerOT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
Brian BranchCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (achilles)Cleared
Cade MaysC · Last listed Wk 7: Q (wrist)Cleared
Christian IzienSAF · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
Christian MahoganyG · Last listed Wk 2: Out (hip)—
D.J. ReedCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (rib)—
Rock Ya-SinCB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (hamstring)—
Tyleik WilliamsDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—

MIN · Minnesota Vikings

19 listed

Jay WardSAF · kneeQuestionable
Donovan JacksonG · Not specifiedIR
Jacob RobertsLB · Not specifiedIR
Jamal AdamsLB · Not specifiedIR
Josh OliverTE · Not specifiedIR
Marcus AllenDB · Not specifiedIR
Nick SamacC · Not specifiedIR
Tyler BattyLB · Not specifiedIR
Ben YurosekTE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
Brett ThorsonP · Last listed Wk 4: Out (hamstring)—
Brian O'NeillOT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Charles DemmingsCB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (hamstring)—
Christian DarrisawOT · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
Jauan JenningsWR · Last listed Wk 2: Out—
Jordan AddisonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
Jordan MasonRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (thumb)Cleared
Justin JeffersonWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
Kyler MurrayQB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
Michael JurgensG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (elbow)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 1

against the posted line

—W3

—DNP

at ARI

BYE

—W7

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: —; no closing lines
Median: 0; regular season
Average: 0

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	—	——	——
Last 5	—	——	——
Season	—	——	——
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

1 of 3 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 1; of 3
Average: 0; yards
Median: 0; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 3: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 3	vs NYJ	—	—	—
Week 5	@ ARI	0	—	—
Week 7	vs GB	—	—	—

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

3 played · 3 DNP

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 7	vs GB	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 5	@ ARI	0	0	0	—	—	0
Wk 4	@ CAR	DNP
Wk 3	vs NYJ	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 2	@ BUF	DNP
Wk 1	vs NO	DNP

Comparable players vs Minnesota

9 of 16

wide receivers went under their line vs Minnesota

Josh DownsIND · Week 7Line 49.518Rec ydsUnder 49.5Under−31.5
Laquon TreadwellIND · Week 7Line 19.519Rec ydsUnder 19.5Under−0.5
Chris OlaveNO · Week 5Line 80.546Rec ydsUnder 80.5Under−34.5
Devaughn VeleNO · Week 5Line 40.526Rec ydsUnder 40.5Under−14.5
Chris BellMIA · Week 4Line 34.50Rec ydsUnder 34.5Under−34.5
Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · Week 4Line 14.53Rec ydsUnder 14.5Under−11.5
Malik WashingtonMIA · Week 4Line 40.567Rec ydsOver 40.5Over+26.5
Chris Godwin Jr.TB · Week 3Line 35.525Rec ydsUnder 35.5Under−10.5
Emeka EgbukaTB · Week 3Line 49.562Rec ydsOver 49.5Over+12.5
Ted Hurst IIITB · Week 3Line 24.540Rec ydsOver 24.5Over+15.5
Kalif RaymondCHI · Week 2Line 23.540Rec ydsOver 23.5Over+16.5
Luther Burden IIICHI · Week 2Line 49.532Rec ydsUnder 49.5Under−17.5
Rome OdunzeCHI · Week 2Line 39.543Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+3.5
Christian WatsonGB · Week 1Line 56.5147Rec ydsOver 56.5Over+90.5
Jayden ReedGB · Week 1Line 43.520Rec ydsUnder 43.5Under−23.5
Matthew GoldenGB · Week 1Line 39.595Rec ydsOver 39.5Over+55.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Minnesota Vikings defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Minnesota Vikings actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	17	18.4	9th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	58%	62%	8th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	123.8	148.8	5th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	7.3	8.1	9th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	10.8	11.1	16th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	4.7	4.3	23rd of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	10%	11%	14th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	7.6	1st of 32
RB	16	1st of 32
WRhis position	25.3	4th of 32
TE	6.9	1st of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Wan'Dale Robinson2025 · Wk 16	19
Devaughn Vele2026 · Wk 5	26
Jakobie Keeney-James2025 · Wk 18	15
A.J. Brown2025 · Wk 7	121
Chris Olave2026 · Wk 5	46

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 46; combined
DET implied total: 24.75; favored
MIN implied total: 21.25; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 28.3s; seconds / play
Wind: Indoors; no wind factor
Conditions: Dome; climate controlled

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 65.8; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 40; 61% pass
Red-zone trips: 4.5; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −0.6; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share1%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %1%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share0%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share0%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share0%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g0

Targets per game

aDOT—

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 1%
Games missed this season: 3

If Martin sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

DeAndre CarterWR

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

3 posted · 5 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	4%	Market only	—	0 of 3 incl. 2025	4%	level
1st TD	1%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	1%	level
Last TD	1%	Market only	—	0 of 5 incl. 2025	1%	level
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Tay Martin's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Tay Martin's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Tay Martin's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Tay Martin's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.