nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 6 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Bills vs Raiders Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:25 PM PT
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Conditions
Indoor · dome

The game in numbers

  • -2.8Pass rate over expected
  • 6thPace rank, slate
  • DomeConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Bills29.529.7+0.2
Raiders23.526.9+3.4
Game total53.556.6+3.1

The Raiders carry 94% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

149 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props145

Bills · Away10 players

RUSHING YARDS
33.5MARKET+8.6WIDE42.1Tank01 projection
Actual 1.0 · final resultPASS + RUSH YARDS
279.5MARKET+29.6MODERATE309.1Tank01 projection
Actual 256.0 · final resultPASSING YARDS
242.5MARKET+24.5MODERATE267.0Tank01 projection
Actual 255.0 · final resultRUSH ATTEMPTS
7.5MARKET+0.5In line with market8.0Tank01 projection
Actual 5.0 · final resultPASS ATTEMPTS
30.5MARKET+1.6In line with market32.1Tank01 projection
Actual 33.0 · final resultCOMPLETIONS
20.5MARKET+1.0In line with market21.5Tank01 projection
Actual 23.0 · final resultLONGEST COMPLETION
38.5MARKET+8.1WIDE46.6Nuvela
Actual 37.0 · final resultLONGEST RUSH
13.5MARKET+1.8MODERATE15.3Nuvela
Actual 2.0 · final result1ST TD
17%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
63%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
15%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultINTERCEPTIONS
0.5MARKET46%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 0.0 · final resultPASSING TDS
1.5MARKET55%OVER · NO-VIG IMPLIED—MARKET ONLY
Actual 2.0 · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 3 players · 9 props

Raiders · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 4 players · 12 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
53.5MARKET+3.1GAP56.656.6
Season range 40-72
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
BUF by 5.5MARKET+2.6GAP2.9BUF by 2.9
Season range 3-28

Team props2

Bills · Away1 market

BillsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
29.5MARKET+0.2GAP29.7Nuvela
Season range 24-41

Raiders · Home1 market

RaidersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET+3.4GAP26.9Nuvela
Season range 17-35