RB · Buffalo Bills#26
Ty Johnson
Updated
Ty Johnson (RB, BUF) props for Week 8 vs Baltimore Ravens: the rushing yards line is not posted yet; 6 of 11 markets posted.
vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8
- Line
- —
- Rushing Yards
- Projection
- —
- No line is posted for this market this week.
- Difference
- —
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 6 of 11
- Projections updated
Highlights
No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Buffalo is without running back Desmond Reid, so more of the backfield work stays with Johnson. Across from him, Baltimore is missing one linebacker, the players who usually stop the run.
JohnsonNo injury designation
Around himBuffalo Bills
4 of 21 touch Johnson
This week
- QuestionableDJ MooreWR · shoulderFrees targets
- QuestionableDalton KincaidTE · chestFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRDesmond ReidRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
- PUPTyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclFrees targets
Across from himBaltimore Ravens
4 of 27 touch Johnson
This week
- OutJaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeCovers backs downfield
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRJahquez RobinsonSAFCovers backs downfield
- IRTavius RobinsonLB · pectoralTackles and covers backs
Off the report this week
- ClearedBroderick WashingtonDT · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2127ShowHide
BUF · Buffalo Bills
21 listed- DJ MooreWR · shoulderQuestionable
- Dalton KincaidTE · chestQuestionable
- Dee AlfordCB · ankleQuestionable
- Greg GainesDT · calfQuestionable
- TJ ParkerLB · kneeQuestionable
- Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesLB · Not specifiedIR
- Desmond ReidRB · Not specifiedIR
- Dorian StrongCB · Not specifiedPUP
- Jordan HancockCB · Not specifiedIR
- Tyrell ShaversWR · knee - aclPUP
- Zane DurantDT · Not specifiedIR
- C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSAF · suspensionSuspended
- Ar'maj Reed-AdamsG · Last listed Wk 3: Q (elbow)—
- Christian BenfordCB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (toe)—
- Cole BishopSAF · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee, groin)—
- Ed OliverDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
- Josh PalmerWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
- Keon ColemanWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (ankle)—
- Landon JacksonDE · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
- Ray DavisRB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (hamstring)—
- T.J. SandersDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (shoulder)—
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
27 listed- Jaylinn HawkinsSAF · kneeOut
- Adam RandallRB · neckIR
- Bilhal KoneCB · Not specifiedIR
- Danny PinterG · Not specifiedIR
- Durham SmytheTE · Not specifiedIR
- Ethan PocicC · Not specifiedIR
- Jahquez RobinsonSAF · Not specifiedIR
- Jovaughn GwynC · Not specifiedIR
- Skylar ThompsonQB · Not specifiedIR
- T.J. TampaCB · kneeIR
- Tavius RobinsonLB · pectoralIR
- Andrew VorheesG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)—
- Broderick WashingtonDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Cam JurgensG · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
- Chris MooreWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (ankle)—
- Devontez WalkerWR · Last listed Wk 1: Q (groin)—
- Emery Jones Jr.OT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Ja'Kobi LaneWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
- John SimpsonG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (groin)—
- Lamar JacksonQB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
- Marlon HumphreyCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring, calf)—
- Matthew HibnerTE · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hand)—
- Nnamdi MadubuikeDT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (neck)—
- Ronnie StanleyOT · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
- Teddye BuchananLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
- Trey HendricksonLB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (finger)—
- Zay FlowersWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- 0 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 1.5
- regular season
- Average
- 1.5
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 1.5 | —— | 0%0/2 |
| Last 5 | 1.5 | —— | 0%0/2 |
| Season | 1.5 | —— | 0%0/2 |
| Last season | 10 | —— | 69%9/13 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 1.5
- yards
- Median
- 1.5
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 4
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 3 | vs LAC | 0 | — | — |
| Week 4 | vs NE | 3 | 4.5 | −1.5 |
| Week 5 | @ LA | 0 | 4.5 | −4.5 |
| Week 6 | @ LV | 3 | — | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ LV | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 5 | @ LA | 0 | 0 | — | — | 4 | 0 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 0 | 0 | — | — | 4 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Baltimore
Other running backs who faced Baltimore this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went over their line vs Baltimore
- Chase BrownCIN · Week 7Line 40.539Rush ydsUnder 40.5Under−1.5
- Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · Week 6Line 32.541Rush ydsOver 32.5Over+8.5
- Bijan RobinsonATL · Week 5Line 87.586Rush ydsUnder 87.5Under−1.5
- Tony PollardTEN · Week 4Line 47.548Rush ydsOver 47.5Over+0.5
- Javonte WilliamsDAL · Week 3Line 56.598Rush ydsOver 56.5Over+41.5
- Travis EtienneNO · Week 2Line 40.525Rush ydsUnder 40.5Under−15.5
- Jonathan TaylorIND · Week 1Line 76.598Rush ydsOver 76.5Over+21.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Baltimore Ravens defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Baltimore Ravens actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 20.4 | 22.1 | 8th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 77.1 | 91.1 | 7th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 3.8 | 4.1 | 9th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 20% | 17% | 7th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 8% | 11% | 4th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 22% | 23% | 15th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 16.9 | 17th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 18.5 | 5th of 32 |
| WR | 35.8 | 25th of 32 |
| TE | 12.3 | 13th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 9 | 67 |
| Jonathan Taylor2026 · Wk 1 | 98 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson2025 · Wk 16 | 51 |
| Bijan Robinson2026 · Wk 5 | 86 |
| Javonte Williams2026 · Wk 3 | 98 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 54.5
- combined
- BUF implied total
- 28.75
- favored
- BAL implied total
- 25.75
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30.4s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 4 mph
- Clouds
- Conditions
- 62°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 59
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 33.9
- 57% pass
- His carries
- 0.5
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 4.5
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −2.1
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Last listed Wk 2: Q (hamstring)
- Game status
- No designation
- Snap share, last game
- 18%
- Games missed this season
- 0
If Johnson sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Ray DavisRB · 14% of the snaps
Where his work goes
No teammate stands out to take his work.
No games without him to measure, so this split is our estimate
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 14% | Market only | — | 1 of 5 incl. 2025 | 14% | level |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 2.4Nuvela projection | −0.1 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2.5 | level |
| Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 17.4Nuvela projection | +1.9 | 4 of 5 incl. 2025 | 15.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 3% | level |
| Last TD | 3% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 3% | level |
| Longest Reception | 9.5 | 17.5Nuvela | +8.0 | 4 of 5 incl. 2025 | 9.5 | level |
| Rushing Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No line posted yet | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line posted yet | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do Ty Johnson's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Ty Johnson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is Ty Johnson's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Ty Johnson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
