nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 5 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Bears vs Packers Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Lambeau Field
Conditions
Outdoor

The game in numbers

  • -0.8Pass rate over expected
  • 2ndPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Bears23.525.5+2.0
Packers23.520.9−2.6
Game total46.546.4−0.1

The two sides carry the disagreement roughly evenly, so this is a read on the game rather than on either offence.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

145 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props141

Bears · Away8 players

RECEPTIONS
2.5MARKET+1.0WIDE3.5Tank01 projection
Actual 3.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
39.5MARKET+2.0In line with market41.5Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 40.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
19.5MARKET+7.5WIDE27.0Nuvela
Actual 20.0 · final result1ST TD
7%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
31%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
8%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 13 props

Packers · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 15 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
46.5MARKET−0.1GAP46.446.4
Season range 12-96
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
CHI by 1.5MARKET+3.2GAP4.7CHI by 4.7
Season range 3-22

Team props2

Bears · Away1 market

BearsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET+2.0GAP25.5Nuvela
Season range 3-59

Packers · Home1 market

PackersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET−2.6GAP20.9Nuvela
Season range 14-22