nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 2 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Packers vs Jets Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor · 69F, 7 mph wind

The game in numbers

  • -6Pass rate over expected
  • 5thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Packers23.521.5−2.0
Jets20.520.8+0.3
Game total44.542.3−2.2

The Packers carry 87% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

152 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props148

Packers · Away8 players

RECEIVING YARDS
49.5MARKET−10.6WIDE38.9Tank01, median-adjusted
Actual 58.0 · final resultRECEPTIONS
3.5MARKET+0.1In line with market3.6Tank01 projection
Actual 4.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
20.5MARKET−9.2WIDE11.3Nuvela
Actual 18.0 · final result1ST TD
8%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
29%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
8%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 6 players · 18 props

Jets · Home8 players

Depth and touchdown only · 5 players · 14 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
44.5MARKET−2.2GAP42.342.3
Season range 33-61
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
GB by 3.5MARKET+2.8GAP0.7GB by 0.7
Season range 13-17

Team props2

Packers · Away1 market

PackersTEAM TOTAL POINTS
23.5MARKET−2.0GAP21.5Nuvela
Season range 22-22

Jets · Home1 market

JetsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
20.5MARKET+0.3GAP20.8Nuvela
Season range 23-23