nuvela.ai

NFL · WEEK 6 · SUNDAY · FINAL

Jets vs Patriots Player Props

Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18 · 10:00 AM PT
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Conditions
Outdoor

The game in numbers

  • -1.7Pass rate over expected
  • 7thPace rank, slate
  • OutdoorConditions

Research, not picks. A starting point to interrogate, never a recommendation.

WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

TeamMarketNuvelaGap
Jets17.514.8−2.7
Patriots25.524.5−1.0
Game total43.539.3−4.2

The Jets carry 73% of the gap, so the disagreement is about their scoring rather than the game's.

EVERY PROP IN THIS GAME

Player, game and team props for this matchup. A reason to look closer, never a recommendation.

159 props · by largest gap vs typical error

Player props155

Jets · Away9 players

RECEPTIONS
6.5MARKET−1.9WIDE4.6Nuvela
Actual 4.0 · final resultRECEIVING YARDS
72.5MARKET+1.1In line with market73.6Tank01 projection
Actual 44.0 · final resultLONGEST RECEPTION
22.5MARKET+6.3WIDE28.8Nuvela
Actual 15.0 · final result1ST TD
7%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final resultANYTIME TD
33%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual Didn't score · final resultLAST TD
11%MARKET · IMPLIED, INCL. BOOK MARGIN—MARKET ONLY
Actual No · final result
Depth and touchdown only · 4 players · 12 props

Patriots · Home10 players

Depth and touchdown only · 4 players · 11 props

Game props2

Game Total PointsCOMBINED SCORE
43.5MARKET−4.2GAP39.339.3
Season range 23-62
Expected MarginHANDICAP · DIFFERENT SCALE
NE by 7.5MARKET+2.2GAP9.7NE by 9.7
Season range 3-29

Team props2

Jets · Away1 market

JetsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
17.5MARKET−2.7GAP14.8Nuvela
Season range 12-24

Patriots · Home1 market

PatriotsTEAM TOTAL POINTS
25.5MARKET−1.0GAP24.5Nuvela
Season range 6-45