Where do Corey Kiner's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Corey Kiner's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Corey Kiner's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Corey Kiner's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

RB · New England Patriots#9

Corey Kiner

Updated Oct 30, 6:37 AM PT

Corey Kiner (RB, NE) props for Week 8 at Miami Dolphins: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

@ Miami Dolphins · Week 8

Line: —; Rushing Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 3 of 10
Projections updated: Oct 30, 12:30 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

New England is without two other running backs, so more of the backfield work stays with Kiner. Across from him, Miami is missing two linebackers and one defensive lineman, the players who usually stop the run.

KinerNo injury designation

Around himNew England Patriots

12 of 34 touch Kiner

This week

QuestionableA.J. BrownWR · kneeFrees targets
QuestionableTreVeyon HendersonRB · illnessFrees carries and catches out of the backfield

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRMyles MontgomeryRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRReggie GilliamRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRAlijah Vera-TuckerG · hamstringWeakens his run blocking

Show 6 more

IRGreg Van RotenGWeakens his run blocking
IRJulian HillTEFrees targets
IRMack HollinsWRFrees targets
IRMarcus BryantOTWeakens his run blocking
IRMike OnwenuGWeakens his run blocking
IRRomeo DoubsWRFrees targets

Off the report this week

ClearedMorgan MosesOT · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himMiami Dolphins

9 of 25 touch Kiner

This week

QuestionableDante Trader Jr.SAF · shoulderCovers backs downfield
QuestionableMichael TaaffeSAF · neckCovers backs downfield
QuestionableReese TaylorDB · quadricepCovers backs downfield

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRRene KongaDEDefends the run
IRRonnie HarrisonLBTackles and covers backs
IRTrey MooreLBTackles and covers backs

Off the report this week

ClearedKyle LouisLB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedRob Beal Jr.DE · was Doubtful in Wk 7Back on the field
ClearedWillie Gay Jr.LB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3425Show

NE · New England Patriots

34 listed

Ben BrownGOut last week
A.J. BrownWR · kneeQuestionable
DaQuan JonesDE · backQuestionable
TreVeyon HendersonRB · illnessQuestionable
Alijah Vera-TuckerG · hamstringIR
Dell PettusSAF · Not specifiedIR
Greg Van RotenG · Not specifiedIR
Harold Landry IIILB · Not specifiedPUP
Julian HillTE · Not specifiedIR
Khalil JacobsLB · Not specifiedIR
Mack HollinsWR · Not specifiedIR
Marcus BryantOT · Not specifiedIR
Mike OnwenuG · Not specifiedIR
Myles MontgomeryRB · Not specifiedIR
Quintayvious HutchinsLB · Not specifiedIR
Reggie GilliamRB · Not specifiedIR
Romeo DoubsWR · Not specifiedIR
Brenden SchoolerSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
Carlton Davis IIICB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (neck)Cleared
Channing CanadaCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)Cleared
Charles WoodsCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
Christian BarmoreDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
Christian EllissLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
Christian GonzalezCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (illness)Cleared
Craig WoodsonSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (shoulder)Cleared
Dametrious CrownoverOT · Last listed Wk 2: Out (knee)—
Dre'Mont JonesLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
Eli RaridonTE · Last listed Wk 4: Q (thigh)—
Karon PruntyCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (hamstring)Cleared
Kevin ByardFS · Last listed Wk 7: Q (chest)Cleared
Morgan MosesOT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (foot)Cleared
Rhamondre StevensonRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (knee)—
Ryan MillerWR · Last listed Wk 3: Q (hip, back)—
Will CampbellOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—

MIA · Miami Dolphins

25 listed

Dante Trader Jr.SAF · shoulderQuestionable
Greg DulcichTE · ankleQuestionable
Jared WayneWR · kneeQuestionable
Julius BrentsCB · concussionQuestionable
Malik WashingtonWR · kneeQuestionable
Michael TaaffeSAF · neckQuestionable
Reese TaylorDB · quadricepQuestionable
Will KacmarekTE · hamstringQuestionable
Carter WarrenOT · Not specifiedIR
Cole TurnerTE · Not specifiedIR
Darrell Baker Jr.CB · Not specifiedPUP
De'Von AchaneRB · Not specifiedIR
Rene KongaDE · Not specifiedIR
Ronnie HarrisonLB · Not specifiedIR
Trey MooreLB · Not specifiedIR
Caleb DouglasWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
Chop RobinsonLB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (concussion)—
Jackson WoodardLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
Jaylen WrightRB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (foot)—
Justin JolyTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
Kenneth GrantDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (toe)—
Kyle LouisLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Rob Beal Jr.DE · Last listed Wk 7: Doubtful (hamstring)Cleared
Tucker AddingtonLS · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
Willie Gay Jr.LB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (illness)Cleared

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Rushing Yards, last 7

against the posted line

at SEA

PIT

at JAX

at BUF

NYJ

at CHI

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: 2 of 3; each week's own close
Median: 13; regular season
Average: 21.6

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	35	——	50%1/2
Last 5	35	——	50%1/2
Season	13	——	67%2/3
Last season	2	——	0%0/1

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

7 of 7 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 7; of 7
Average: 21.6; yards
Median: 13; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 7: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Rushing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ SEA	11	8.5	+2.5
Week 2	vs PIT	0	—	—
Week 3	@ JAX	18	—	—
Week 4	@ BUF	0	—	—
Week 5	vs LV	52	—	—
Week 6	vs NYJ	57	17.5	+39.5
Week 7	@ CHI	13	14.5	−1.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

7 played

Week	Opponent	Carries	Rush yds	YPC	Long	Rec
Wk 7	@ CHI	4	13	3.2	7	0
Wk 6	vs NYJ	11	57	5.2	12	0
Wk 5	vs LV	6	52	8.7	32	1
Wk 4	@ BUF	0	0	—	—	0
Wk 3	@ JAX	6	18	3	7	1
Wk 2	vs PIT	2	0	0	2	0
Wk 1	@ SEA	6	11	1.8	7	0

Comparable players vs Miami

4 of 7

running backs went over their line vs Miami

Braelon AllenNYJ · Week 7Line 76.5104Rush ydsOver 76.5Over+27.5
Chase BrownCIN · Week 5Line 65.539Rush ydsUnder 65.5Under−26.5
Samaje PerineCIN · Week 5Line 15.568Rush ydsOver 15.5Over+52.5
Aaron JonesMIN · Week 4Line 66.594Rush ydsOver 66.5Over+27.5
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · Week 3Line 85.570Rush ydsUnder 85.5Under−15.5
Christian McCaffreySF · Week 2Line 60.523Rush ydsUnder 60.5Under−37.5
Ashton JeantyLV · Week 1Line 60.5102Rush ydsOver 60.5Over+41.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Miami Dolphins defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the run

What Miami Dolphins actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees.	23.8	22.1	23rd of 32
Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs.	102.5	91.1	22nd of 32
Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded.	4.3	4.1	23rd of 32
Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop.	19%	17%	11th of 32
Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from.	12%	11%	25th of 32
Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box.	19%	23%	21st of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	19.6	25th of 32
RBhis position	26.4	29th of 32
WR	23.8	2nd of 32
TE	21.1	30th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rush yds
Devin Neal2025 · Wk 13	47
Braelon Allen2026 · Wk 7	104
Breece Hall2025 · Wk 14	43
Ashton Jeanty2026 · Wk 1	102
Aaron Jones2026 · Wk 4	94

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 43; combined
NE implied total: 25; favored
MIA implied total: 18; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 30.9s; seconds / play
Wind: 6 mph; Rain
Conditions: 73°F; outdoor · 100% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 61.3; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 36.9; 60% pass
His carries: 6.2; projected this game
Red-zone trips: 3.1; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +0.1; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share12%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %10%

Of the team's dropbacks

Carry share17%

Of the team's rush attempts

RZ touches / g1.1

Touches inside the opponent's 20, per game

Goal-line carry share0%

Of the team's carries inside the 5

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 11%
Games missed this season: 0

If Kiner sits

If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.

Next up

TreVeyon HendersonRB · 24% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

3 posted · 7 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	26%	Market only	—	0 of 5	15%	+10%
1st TD	6%	Market only	—	0 of 5	4%	+3%
Last TD	8%	Market only	—	0 of 5	5%	+2%
Rushing Yards	No line posted yet
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Longest Rush	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Corey Kiner's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Corey Kiner's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Corey Kiner's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Corey Kiner's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.