RB · Carolina Panthers#28
AJ Dillon
Updated
AJ Dillon (RB, CAR) props for Week 8 at Green Bay Packers: no line was posted for this game. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.
@ Green Bay Packers · Week 8FinalOut
- Line
- —
- Rushing Yards · pregame line
- Projection
- —
- No line is posted for this market this week. · pregame
- Result
- —
- result not recorded
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 3 of 10
- Projections updated
- Stats before
- Week 8
Highlights
No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Carolina is missing one tight end, which frees targets. Across from him, Green Bay is missing one linebacker, the players who usually stop the run.
DillonOut
Around himCarolina Panthers
4 of 21 touch Dillon
This week
- OutDamien LewisG · kneeWeakens his run blocking
- OutJa'Tavion SandersTEFrees targets
- OutTorricelli Simpkins IIIG · ankleWeakens his run blocking
Off the report this week
- ClearedMonroe FreelingOT · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
Across from himGreen Bay Packers
5 of 27 touch Dillon
This week
- OutZaire FranklinOLB · shinTackles and covers backs
- QuestionableAnthony CampbellDT · ankleDefends the run
- QuestionableBrenton Cox Jr.DE · quadricepDefends the run
- QuestionableDevonte WyattDT · ankleDefends the run
Off the report this week
- ClearedJordon RileyDT · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2127ShowHide
CAR · Carolina Panthers
21 listed- Akayleb EvansCB · triceps, kneeOut
- Bobby Brown IIIDT · handOut
- Damien LewisG · kneeOut
- Haynes KingQB · Not specifiedOut
- Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Not specifiedOut
- Jaelan PhillipsLB · hamstringOut
- Torricelli Simpkins IIIG · ankleOut
- Bam Martin-ScottLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
- Cam JacksonDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (knee)—
- Claudin CherelusLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (shoulder)—
- Devin LloydLB · Last listed Wk 3: Out (calf)—
- Jalen CokerWR · Last listed Wk 4: Q (quadricep)—
- Lee HunterDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (foot)—
- Monroe FreelingOT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
- Nick ScottSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Out (rib)—
- Patrick Jones IILB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (back)—
- Taylor MotonOT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (lung)—
- Tershawn WhartonDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (neck)—
- Thomas IncoomLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
- Trevor EtienneRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Xavier LegetteWR · Last listed Wk 4: Out (knee)—
GB · Green Bay Packers
27 listed- Jonnu SmithTE · Not specifiedOut
- Kaleb JohnsonRB · Not specifiedOut
- Sean RhyanC · ankleOut
- Travis GloverOT · kneeOut
- Zaire FranklinOLB · shinOut
- Anthony CampbellDT · ankleQuestionable
- Brenton Cox Jr.DE · quadricepQuestionable
- Devonte WyattDT · ankleQuestionable
- Matthew GoldenWR · shoulder, footQuestionable
- Aaron BanksG · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee, toe)Cleared
- Benjamin St-JusteCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hamstring)Cleared
- Bo MeltonWR · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
- Brandon CisseCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hip)—
- Chris BrooksRB · Last listed Wk 5: Out (ankle)—
- Edgerrin CooperLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (shoulder, concussion)—
- Jacob MonkG · Last listed Wk 6: Q (quadricep)—
- Jager BurtonG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (back)—
- Javon HargraveNT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (achilles)—
- Jayden ReedWR · Last listed Wk 3: Out (neck)—
- Jonathan FordDT · Last listed Wk 6: Out (calf)—
- Jordon RileyDT · Last listed Wk 7: Q (achilles)Cleared
- Lukas Van NessLB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (concussion)—
- Savion WilliamsWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
- Skyy MooreWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ankle)—
- Ty'Ron HopperLB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (achilles)—
- Warren BrinsonDT · Last listed Wk 4: Out (calf, groin)—
- Zach Bako-BeweleG · Last listed Wk 3: Out (knee)—
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 4
- Consensus line
- —
- yards
- Projection
- —
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 2
- each week's own close
- Median
- 9
- regular season
- Average
- 10.8
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 9 | —— | 50%1/2 |
| Last 5 | 9 | —— | 50%1/2 |
| Season | 9 | —— | 50%1/2 |
| Last season | 2 | —— | 0%0/1 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 4
- of 4
- Average
- 10.8
- yards
- Median
- 9
- yards
- Above the line
- —
- vs the full 4
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs CHI | 28 | — | — |
| Week 2 | @ ATL | -3 | — | — |
| Week 3 | @ CLE | 16 | 13.5 | +2.5 |
| Week 4 | vs DET | 2 | 2.5 | −0.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 4 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 3 | -3 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Comparable players vs Green Bay
Other running backs who faced Green Bay this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went over their line vs Green Bay
- Jahmyr GibbsDET · Week 7Line 94.5116Rush ydsOver 94.5Over+21.5
- Javonte WilliamsDAL · Week 6Line 67.541Rush ydsUnder 67.5Under−26.5
- D'Andre SwiftCHI · Week 5Line 84.543Rush ydsUnder 84.5Under−41.5
- Bucky IrvingTB · Week 4Line 55.561Rush ydsOver 55.5Over+5.5
- Kenny GainwellTB · Week 4Line 14.55Rush ydsUnder 14.5Under−9.5
- Bijan RobinsonATL · Week 3Line 78.5194Rush ydsOver 78.5Over+115.5
- Breece HallNYJ · Week 2Line 63.529Rush ydsUnder 63.5Under−34.5
- Aaron JonesMIN · Week 1Line 29.540Rush ydsOver 29.5Over+10.5
- Jordan MasonMIN · Week 1Line 44.559Rush ydsOver 44.5Over+14.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How Green Bay Packers defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What Green Bay Packers actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 23.7 | 22.1 | 22nd of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 95.1 | 91.5 | 18th of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4 | 4.1 | 11th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 22% | 17% | 4th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 9% | 11% | 8th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 20% | 23% | 21st of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 13 | 5th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 25.5 | 28th of 32 |
| WR | 35.7 | 24th of 32 |
| TE | 9 | 2nd of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs2026 · Wk 7 | 116 |
| Javonte Williams2026 · Wk 6 | 41 |
| Rico Dowdle2025 · Wk 9 | 130 |
| Bijan Robinson2026 · Wk 3 | 194 |
| Saquon Barkley2025 · Wk 10 | 60 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- CAR implied total
- 22
- underdog
- GB implied total
- 25.5
- favored
- Projected script
- Neutral/Trail
- underdog
- Pace
- 26.6s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- 9 mph
- Clear
- Conditions
- 58°F
- outdoor · 0% precip
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 65.3
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 43.1
- 66% pass
- His carries
- 4.2
- projected this game
- Red-zone trips
- 3.7
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +4.0
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Not Specified
- Game status
- Out
- Snap share, last game
- 15%
- Games missed this season
- 2
If Dillon sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Trevor EtienneRB · 17% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Anthony Tyus IIIRB+3carries
- Chuba HubbardRB+2.2carries
Based on 2 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 6% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 6% | −1% |
| 1st TD | 1% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 1% | level |
| Last TD | 2% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 2% | level |
| Rushing Yards | No line was posted | |||||
| Rush Attempts | No line was posted | |||||
| Rush + Rec Yards | No line was posted | |||||
| Receptions | No line was posted | |||||
| Receiving Yards | No line was posted | |||||
| 2+ TDs | No line was posted | |||||
| Longest Rush | No line was posted | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
About these numbers
Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.
- Where do AJ Dillon's prop lines come from?
- From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of AJ Dillon's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
- How is AJ Dillon's projection made?
- The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from AJ Dillon's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.
