RB · Pittsburgh Steelers#13
Rico Dowdle
Updated
Rico Dowdle's rushing yards line is 29.5 for Week 7 at New Orleans Saints (Sun, Oct 25); the projection is 37.7. 10 of 11 markets posted.
@ New Orleans Saints · Week 7 · Neutral siteQuestionable
- Line
- 29.5
- Rushing Yards
- Nuvela projection
- 37.7
- this week
- Difference
- +8.2
- +28%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 10 of 11
- Line since open
- −3.0, from 32.5
- Projections updated
Highlights
The biggest reasons on each side of 29.5 rushing yards
New Orleans gives up 117 rushing yards a game to running backs this season, the most in the league. The doubts are his share of the carries and Warren's lead role.
Line29.5Down 3 since it opened at 32.5 on Tuesday, after swinging between 29.5 and 33.5. No single piece of news lines up with the moves.
Over
Why he could top 29.5 rushing yards
- 32ndOF 32New Orleans gives up 117 rushing yards a game to running backs this season, the most in the league. The league average is 90.
- 30thOF 32New Orleans stops 13% of runs at or behind the line this season, the third lowest in the league. The league average is 17%.
- −3SINCE TUEThe line has already dropped 3 since it opened at 32.5, so part of the case for less is already in the price.
Under
Why he could fall short of 29.5
- 17%CARRIESHe gets 17% of Pittsburgh's carries over 3 games.
CARRIESJaylen Warren is still the lead back, with 76% of the snaps and 74% of the carries this season.
- QKNEEHe is listed Questionable with a knee injury on the injury report filed Sat Oct 24, and his last practice was limited.
Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
Pittsburgh is missing four receivers, which frees targets. Across from him, New Orleans is missing one defensive lineman, the players who usually stop the run.
DowdleQuestionable · knee
Around himPittsburgh Steelers
7 of 20 touch Dowdle
This week
- OutBen SkowronekWR · calfFrees targets
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRCole BurgessWRFrees targets
- IRGennings DunkerGWeakens his run blocking
- IRJack DriscollOTWeakens his run blocking
Show 2 more
- IRMichael PittmanWRFrees targets
- IRRoman WilsonWR · fingerFrees targets
Off the report this week
- ClearedPat FreiermuthTE · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Across from himNew Orleans Saints
7 of 33 touch Dowdle
This week
- QuestionableNathan ShepherdDE · illnessDefends the run
Out long term · already in his recent games
- IRBryan BreseeDTDefends the run
- IRDavid LongDBCovers backs downfield
- IRRejzohn WrightDBCovers backs downfield
Off the report this week
- ClearedAnfernee JenningsLB · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedKaden EllissLB · was Out in Wk 6Back on the field
- ClearedLorenzo Styles Jr.SAF · was Q in Wk 6Back on the field
Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2033ShowHide
PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers
20 listed- Ben SkowronekWR · calfOut
- Brandin EcholsCB · hamstringOut
- DeShon ElliottSAF · kneeQuestionable
- Cole BurgessWR · Not specifiedIR
- Daequan HardyCB · Not specifiedIR
- Derrick HarmonDT · Not specifiedIR
- Donte KentCB · Not specifiedPUP
- Gennings DunkerG · Not specifiedIR
- Jack DriscollOT · Not specifiedIR
- Logan LeeDT · Not specifiedIR
- Michael PittmanWR · Not specifiedIR
- Roman WilsonWR · fingerIR
- Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsIR
- Jalen RamseyCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)Cleared
- Jamel DeanCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Jaylen WarrenRB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
- Keeanu BentonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)Cleared
- Pat FreiermuthTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)Cleared
- Troy FautanuOT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (ankle)—
- Yahya BlackDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
NO · New Orleans Saints
33 listed- Cesar RuizG · kneeQuestionable
- Nathan ShepherdDE · illnessQuestionable
- Bryan BreseeDT · Not specifiedIR
- Damien AlfordWR · Not specifiedIR
- David LongDB · Not specifiedIR
- Dillon RadunzOT · Not specifiedIR
- Jordyn TysonWR · hamstringIR
- Kelvin Banks Jr.OT · Not specifiedIR
- Mason TiptonWR · Not specifiedPUP
- Moliki MatavaoTE · Not specifiedIR
- Nick SaldiveriG · Not specifiedIR
- Rejzohn WrightDB · Not specifiedIR
- Travis EtienneRB · Not specifiedIR
- Ty ChandlerRB · Not specifiedIR
- Alvin KamaraRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (back)Cleared
- Anfernee JenningsLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)Cleared
- Barion BrownWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (thigh)—
- Cameron JordanLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
- Carl GrandersonDE · Last listed Wk 4: Out (ankle)—
- Chase YoungDE · Last listed Wk 2: Q (calf)—
- Chris OlaveWR · Last listed Wk 6: Q (illness)Cleared
- Christen MillerDT · Last listed Wk 5: Q (illness)—
- Isaiah StalbirdLB · Last listed Wk 2: Doubtful (shoulder)—
- Jaylan FordLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (ankle)—
- Jeremiah WrightG · Last listed Wk 5: Out (concussion)—
- Julian BlackmonSAF · Last listed Wk 5: Q (shoulder)—
- Kaden EllissLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (calf)Cleared
- Lorenzo Styles Jr.SAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)Cleared
- Martin EmersonCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
- Noah FantTE · Last listed Wk 4: Q (abdomen)—
- Oscar DelpTE · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
- Pete WernerLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q (shoulder)—
- Zach WoodLS · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)Cleared
Form
What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Rushing Yards, last 3
- Consensus line
- 29.5
- yards
- Nuvela projection
- 37.7
- +8.2 on the line
- Above the line
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs closing lines
- 1 of 3
- each week's own close
- Median
- 22
- regular season
- Average
- 25.7
- −3.8 on the line
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 22 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last 5 | 22 | 40%2/5 | 40%2/5 |
| Season | 22 | 33%1/3 | 33%1/3 |
| Last season | 49 | 77%13/17 | 47%8/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
Cut the sample
- Games
- 3
- of 3
- Average
- 25.7
- yards
- Median
- 22
- yards
- Above 29.5
- 1 of 3
- 33% of the sample
- vs the full 3
- 0.0
- yards
Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.
| Week | Opponent | Rushing Yards | Line that week | Against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs ATL | 15 | 45.5 | −30.5 |
| Week 2 | @ NE | 22 | 33.5 | −11.5 |
| Week 6 | @ TB | 40 | 17.5 | +22.5 |
Game log · season
Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.
Every game
| Week | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | YPC | Long | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 6 | @ TB | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 15 | 3 | 0 |
| Wk 2 | @ NE | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Wk 1 | vs ATL | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Comparable players vs New Orleans
Other running backs who faced New Orleans this season, and how they did against their line.
running backs went over their line vs New Orleans
- Aaron JonesMIN · Week 5Line 70.5113Rush ydsOver 70.5Over+42.5
- Bijan RobinsonATL · Week 4Line 89.5145Rush ydsOver 89.5Over+55.5
- Brian RobinsonATL · Week 4Line 29.562Rush ydsOver 29.5Over+32.5
- Ashton JeantyLV · Week 3Line 68.556Rush ydsUnder 68.5Under−12.5
- Derrick HenryBAL · Week 2Line 94.568Rush ydsUnder 94.5Under−26.5
- Justice HillBAL · Week 2Line 12.56Rush ydsUnder 12.5Under−6.5
- Jahmyr GibbsDET · Week 1Line 85.5156Rush ydsOver 85.5Over+70.5
Matchup
The defense he faces and the game around him.
Opponent defense
How New Orleans Saints defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.
How this defense handles the run
What New Orleans Saints actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.
| Measure | Allowed | League avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees. | 24.2 | 21.9 | 24th of 32 |
| Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs. | 116.8 | 89.5 | 32nd of 32 |
| Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded. | 4.8 | 4.1 | 30th of 32 |
| Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop. | 13% | 17% | 30th of 32 |
| Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from. | 13% | 11% | 26th of 32 |
| Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box. | 22% | 23% | 15th of 32 |
By position
| Position | FP allowed / g | Rank1 = toughest |
|---|---|---|
| QB | 17.9 | 18th of 32 |
| RBhis position | 30.1 | 32nd of 32 |
| WR | 31.9 | 16th of 32 |
| TE | 17.9 | 27th of 32 |
Similar players
| Player | Rush yds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Jones2026 · Wk 5 | 113 |
| Ashton Jeanty2026 · Wk 3 | 56 |
| Christian McCaffrey2025 · Wk 2 | 55 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs2026 · Wk 1 | 156 |
| De'Von Achane2025 · Wk 13 | 134 |
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 43.5
- combined
- PIT implied total
- 23.25
- favored
- NO implied total
- 20.25
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- 30.2s
- seconds / play
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Neutral site
- Stade de France
What the game projects
- Offensive play count
- 62.5
- 6-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 42.4
- 68% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 2.7
- 6-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- +4.3
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Role
How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Availability
Practice participation through the week.
His practice week
- Injury
- Knee
- Game status
- Questionable
- Snap share, last game
- 27%
- Games missed this season
- 3
If Dowdle sits
If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.
Next up
Lew Nichols IIIRB · 7% of the snaps
Where his work goes
- Jaylen WarrenRB+4.7carries
- Travis HomerRB+0.5carries
Based on 3 games without him
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Projection | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 26% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 31% | −5% |
| Rushing Yards | 29.5 | 37.7Nuvela projection | +8.2 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 32.5 | −3.0 |
| Rush Attempts | 7.5 | 8.2Tank01 projection | +0.7 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 7.5 | level |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 40.5 | 43.2Tank01, median-adjusted | +2.7 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 47.5 | −7.0 |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 1.7Nuvela projection | +0.2 | 5 of 5 incl. 2025 | 1.5 | level |
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 9.0Tank01, median-adjusted | +1.5 | 3 of 5 incl. 2025 | 10.5 | −3.0 |
| 1st TD | 7% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 8% | −2% |
| Longest Rush | 9.5 | 9.3Nuvela | −0.2 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 9.5 | level |
| Last TD | 7% | Market only | — | 0 of 5 incl. 2025 | 8% | −1% |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | 8.4Nuvela | +0.9 | 2 of 5 incl. 2025 | 7.5 | level |
| 2+ TDs | No line posted yet | |||||
What these figures mean
- Cleared L5
- How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only, whichever side the projection takes.
- Since open
- How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.
How the line moved
- Tue 6:32 AM32.5opened
- Tue 6:32 AM33.5+1.0
- Tue 6:32 PM31.5−2.0
- Wed 8:09 PM30.5−1.0
- Sat 11:42 PM29.5−1.0
Opened 32.5, now 29.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.
- The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games−0.1
- The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 730 games−0.1
- The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 732 games0.0
A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Rushing Yards
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 28.5 | −115 | −115 |
| BetOnline | 28.5 | −110 | −118 |
| BetRivers | 28.5 | −120 | −110 |
| Bovada | 29.5 | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings | 29.5 | −111 | −113 |
| Fanatics | 30.5 | −105 | −125 |
| FanDuel | 29.5 | −113 | −113 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
