Where do Jeremiyah Love's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Jeremiyah Love's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Jeremiyah Love's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Jeremiyah Love's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

RB · Arizona Cardinals#4

Jeremiyah Love

Updated Oct 30, 1:37 PM PT

Jeremiyah Love's rushing yards line is 32.5 for Week 8 at Dallas Cowboys (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 57.4. 6 of 10 markets posted.

@ Dallas Cowboys · Week 8Questionable

Line: 32.5; Rushing Yards · 1 book
Nuvela projection: 57.4; this week · small sample
Difference: +24.9; +77%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 6 of 10
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT

Highlights

Line32.5Hasn't moved since it opened, at FanDuel.

Over

Why he could top 32.5 rushing yards

49A GAMEHe has averaged 49 rushing yards over his last 5 games, against a line of 32.5.
27thOF 32Dallas gives up 107 rushing yards a game to running backs this season, the 6th most in the league.

Under

Why he could fall short of 32.5

7PT UNDERDOGArizona is a 7 point underdog.
2GAMES MISSEDHe is back after missing his last 2 games.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Arizona is without two other running backs, so more of the backfield work stays with Love. Across from him, Dallas is missing two defensive linemen and one linebacker, the players who usually stop the run.

LoveQuestionable · ankle

Around himArizona Cardinals

11 of 33 touch Love

This week

QuestionableMichael WilsonWR · ribsFrees targets
QuestionableTyler AllgeierRB · toeFrees carries and catches out of the backfield

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJames ConnerRB · footFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRTrey BensonRBFrees carries and catches out of the backfield
IRChase BisontisOTWeakens his run blocking

Show 5 more

IRHunter LongTEFrees targets
IRIsaiah AdamsGWeakens his run blocking
IRJalen BrooksWR · wristFrees targets
IRParis Johnson Jr.OTWeakens his run blocking
PUPTip ReimanTE · ankleFrees targets

Off the report this week

ClearedCarson BeckQB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Across from himDallas Cowboys

8 of 24 touch Love

This week

QuestionableCaleb DownsSAF · ankleCovers backs downfield
QuestionableDee WintersLB · calfTackles and covers backs
QuestionableQuinnen WilliamsDT · hamstringDefends the run

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRJalen ThompsonDBCovers backs downfield
IRJonathan BullardDE · calfDefends the run
IRKelvin GilliamDTDefends the run

Show 2 more

IRMarist LiufauLB · forearmTackles and covers backs
IRP.J. LockeDB · footCovers backs downfield

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists3324Show

ARI · Arizona Cardinals

33 listed

Jon Gaines IIGOut last week
Walter NolenDT · ankleOut
Andrew WingardSAF · kneeQuestionable
Mack WilsonLB · kneeQuestionable
Max MeltonCB · kneeQuestionable
Michael WilsonWR · ribsQuestionable
Tyler AllgeierRB · toeQuestionable
Chase BisontisOT · Not specifiedIR
Hunter LongTE · Not specifiedIR
Isaiah AdamsG · Not specifiedIR
Jalen BrooksWR · wristIR
James ConnerRB · footIR
Joey BlountSAF · Not specifiedIR
Kaleb ProctorDT · Not specifiedIR
Paris Johnson Jr.OT · Not specifiedIR
Tip ReimanTE · anklePUP
Trey BensonRB · Not specifiedIR
Will JohnsonCB · Not specifiedIR
Zachary CarterDT · Not specifiedIR
Andrew BillingsDT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Blake GillikinP · Last listed Wk 6: Q (back)—
Budda BakerS · Last listed Wk 7: Q (groin, illness)Cleared
Carson BeckQB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSAF · Last listed Wk 4: Out (back)—
Darius RobinsonDL · Last listed Wk 7: Q (back)Cleared
Garrett WilliamsCB · Last listed Wk 2: Out (achilles)—
Isaac SeumaloG · Last listed Wk 2: Q (shoulder)—
Josh SweatLB · Last listed Wk 4: Q—
Karson ShararLB · Last listed Wk 5: Q (hamstring)—
Kitan CrawfordSAF · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Roy LopezDT · Last listed Wk 3: Q (groin)—
Wydett Williams Jr.SAF · Last listed Wk 6: Out (concussion)—
Zaven CollinsLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hip)—

DAL · Dallas Cowboys

24 listed

Drew SheltonOTOut last week
Caleb DownsSAF · ankleQuestionable
Dee WintersLB · calfQuestionable
George PickensWR · shoulderQuestionable
KaVontae TurpinWR · ribsQuestionable
Luke SchoonmakerTE · groinQuestionable
Quinnen WilliamsDT · hamstringQuestionable
Devin MooreCB · Not specifiedIR
Jalen ThompsonDB · Not specifiedIR
Jonathan BullardDE · calfIR
Kelvin GilliamDT · Not specifiedIR
Malik DavisRB · Not specifiedIR
Marist LiufauLB · forearmIR
Matt HennessyC · Not specifiedIR
P.J. LockeDB · footIR
Princeton FantTE · Not specifiedIR
Ameer SpeedCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee)—
Cobie DurantCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
DeMarvion OvershownLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
Joey Porter Jr.CB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Jonathan MingoWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q (illness)—
LT OvertonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (foot)—
Malik HookerFS · Last listed Wk 3: Out (forearm)—
Tyler SmithG · Last listed Wk 5: Q (thumb)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Rushing Yards, last 5

against the posted 32.5

at LAC

SEA

at SF

at NYG

DET

57.4vs DAL

Cleared 32.5Under 32.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line32.5

Consensus line: 32.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 57.4; +24.9 on the line
Above the line: 3 of 5; 60% of the sample
vs closing lines: 2 of 5; each week's own close
Median: 41; regular season
Average: 49; +16.5 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	63	67%2/3	33%1/3
Last 5	41	60%3/5	40%2/5
Season	41	60%3/5	40%2/5
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

5 of 5 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 5; of 5
Average: 49; yards
Median: 41; yards
Above 32.5: 3 of 5; 60% of the sample
vs the full 5: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Rushing Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	@ LAC	41	31.5	+9.5
Week 2	vs SEA	29	36.5	−7.5
Week 3	@ SF	90	41.5	+48.5
Week 4	@ NYG	63	65.5	−2.5
Week 5	vs DET	22	45.5	−23.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

5 played

Week	Opponent	Carries	Rush yds	YPC	Long	Rec	TD
Wk 5	vs DET	12	22	1.8	8	0	0
Wk 4	@ NYG	14	63	4.5	16	1	0
Wk 3	@ SF	21	90	4.3	8	5	1
Wk 2	vs SEA	9	29	3.2	9	3	0
Wk 1	@ LAC	11	41	3.7	18	2	1

Comparable players vs Dallas

5 of 9

running backs went over their line vs Dallas

Love this weekLine32.5Nuvela projection57.4

Dameon PiercePHI · Week 7Line 19.547Rush ydsOver 19.5Over+27.5
MarShawn LloydGB · Week 6Line 42.510Rush ydsUnder 42.5Under−32.5
Pierre StrongGB · Week 6Line 17.528Rush ydsOver 17.5Over+10.5
Bucky IrvingTB · Week 5Line 52.5165Rush ydsOver 52.5Over+112.5
David MontgomeryHOU · Week 4Line 44.524Rush ydsUnder 44.5Under−20.5
Woody MarksHOU · Week 4Line 36.522Rush ydsUnder 36.5Under−14.5
Derrick HenryBAL · Week 3Line 90.589Rush ydsUnder 90.5Under−1.5
Rachaad WhiteWAS · Week 2Line 21.543Rush ydsOver 21.5Over+21.5
Cam SkatteboNYG · Week 1Line 49.581Rush ydsOver 49.5Over+31.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Dallas Cowboys defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles the run

What Dallas Cowboys actually allows to RBs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Carries facedRushing volume this defence sees.	24.4	22.1	27th of 32
Rushing yards allowedPer game, to running backs.	106.6	91.1	27th of 32
Yards per carry allowedEfficiency conceded.	4.4	4.1	25th of 32
Runs stopped at or behind the lineShare of carries gaining nothing: the floor-killer for a rushing prop.	14%	17%	27th of 32
Runs of 10+ yards allowedShare of carries breaking 10 yards: where a rushing line's ceiling comes from.	12%	11%	20th of 32
Loaded boxes (8+ defenders)Share of carries this defence met with a loaded box.	17%	23%	23rd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	19.7	27th of 32
RBhis position	24.6	26th of 32
WR	35.5	24th of 32
TE	12.4	15th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rush yds
Rico Dowdle2025 · Wk 6	183
Ashton Jeanty2025 · Wk 11	7
Jahmyr Gibbs2025 · Wk 14	43
Derrick Henry2026 · Wk 3	89
Josh Jacobs2025 · Wk 4	86

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 54.5; combined
ARI implied total: 23.75; underdog
DAL implied total: 30.75; favored
Projected script: Neutral/Trail; underdog
Pace: 28.9s; seconds / play
Wind: 4 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 78°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 67.7; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 43.3; 64% pass
Red-zone trips: 3.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −0.7; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share48%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %—

Of the team's dropbacks

Carry share37%

Of the team's rush attempts

RZ touches / g2.8

Touches inside the opponent's 20, per game

Goal-line carry share13%

Of the team's carries inside the 5

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

1 session

Limited

Injury: Ankle
Game status: Questionable
Snap share, last game: 49%
Games missed this season: 2

If Love sits

If a back sits, his carries usually split into two jobs rather than going to one player: early downs and the goal line, and passing downs.

Next up

Tyler AllgeierRB · 52% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Bam KnightRB+9.5carries
Tyler AllgeierRB+6carries

Based on 2 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

6 posted · 4 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Anytime TD	42%	Market only	—	2 of 5	43%	−1%
Rushing Yards	32.5	57.4Nuvela projection	+24.9	3 of 5	32.5	level
Receptions	2.5	1.6Nuvela projection	−0.9	2 of 5	2.5	level
Receiving Yards	10.5	10.3Nuvela projection	−0.2	2 of 5	10.5	level
1st TD	8%	Market only	—	1 of 5	8%	level
Last TD	8%	Market only	—	0 of 5	10%	−1%
Rush Attempts	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Longest Rush	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net 0 (held at 32.5)

Fri 11:01 AM32.5Coach Mike LaFleur said Friday that Love (ankle) is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the RB1's rushing tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games−0.1
The WR2's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games−0.1
The WR1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Rushing Yards

1 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
FanDuel	32.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Jeremiyah Love's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Jeremiyah Love's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Jeremiyah Love's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Jeremiyah Love's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.