Where do Josh Cameron's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Josh Cameron's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Josh Cameron's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Josh Cameron's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars#19

Josh Cameron

Updated Oct 28, 11:58 PM PT

Josh Cameron's receiving yards line is 11.5 for Week 8 vs Indianapolis Colts (Sun, Nov 1); the projection is 15.1. 5 of 8 markets posted.

vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8

Line: 11.5; Receiving Yards · 1 book
Nuvela projection: 15.1; this week · small sample
Difference: +3.6; +31%

Lines checked: Oct 30, 2:08 PM PT
Markets posted: 5 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 2:09 PM PT

Highlights

Line11.5Hasn't moved since it opened, at FanDuel.

Over

Why he could top 11.5 receiving yards

19.5A GAMEHe has averaged about 20 receiving yards over his last 6 games, against a line of 11.5.
28.25JAX POINTSJacksonville's team total is about 28 points.
29thOF 32Indianapolis lets 14% of throws go 20 or more yards this season, the 4th most in the league.

Under

Why he could fall short of 11.5

2TARGETS A GAMEHe gets 2 targets a game, 7% of Jacksonville's total, over 6 games.
10PT FAVORITEJacksonville is a 10 point favorite.
4%AIR YARDSHe draws 4% of Jacksonville's air yards over 6 games.

Ranked by how much each one matters. We show both sides and leave the decision to you. Nuvela is AI and can make mistakes.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Jacksonville is without quarterback Carter Bradley, which changes who throws to Cameron. Across from him, Indianapolis is missing two cornerbacks, the players who usually cover receivers.

CameronNo injury designation

Around himJacksonville Jaguars

2 of 18 touch Cameron

This week

QuestionableJakobi MeyersWR · hamstringFrees targets at his spot

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCarter BradleyQBChanges who throws to him

Across from himIndianapolis Colts

4 of 21 touch Cameron

This week

OutJustin WalleyCB · kneeCovers receivers

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCam Taylor-BrittCB · groinCovers receivers
IRCameron MitchellDBDeep coverage

Off the report this week

ClearedSauce GardnerCB · was Out in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists1821Show

JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars

18 listed

Antonio JohnsonSAF · ankleOut
Ross MatiscikLSOut last week
Jakobi MeyersWR · hamstringQuestionable
Anton HarrisonOT · Not specifiedIR
BJ Green IIDE · Not specifiedIR
Caleb RansawSAF · Not specifiedIR
Carter BradleyQB · Not specifiedIR
Garrett DiGiorgioOT · Not specifiedIR
Jared BartlettLB · Not specifiedIR
Parker HughesLB · Not specifiedIR
Patrick MekariOT · Not specifiedIR
Sam MustipherC · Not specifiedIR
Zach DurfeeDE · Not specifiedIR
Albert RegisDT · Last listed Wk 4: Q (elbow)—
Eric MurrayS · Last listed Wk 5: Doubtful (concussion)—
Jaylon JonesDB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (hamstring)—
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Last listed Wk 1: Q (hip)—
Montaric BrownCB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—

IND · Indianapolis Colts

21 listed

Anthony GouldWR · concussionOut
Justin WalleyCB · kneeOut
Andrew OgletreeTE · kneeQuestionable
Bryce BoettcherLB · groinQuestionable
Alec PierceWR · heelIR
Arden KeyDE · Not specifiedIR
Cam Taylor-BrittCB · groinIR
Cameron MitchellDB · Not specifiedIR
Carson TowtTE · Not specifiedIR
D.J. MontgomeryWR · Not specifiedIR
Micheal ClemonsDE · Not specifiedIR
Ashton DulinWR · Last listed Wk 6: Out (hamstring)—
Austin AjiakeLB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (hamstring)—
CJ AllenLB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Charvarius WardCB · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
DJ GiddensRB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (knee)—
Jaylon CarliesLB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (ribs)—
Keenan AllenWR · Last listed Wk 5: Q—
Sauce GardnerCB · Last listed Wk 7: Out (calf)Cleared
Tyler WarrenTE · Last listed Wk 7: Out (groin)Cleared
Will MalloryTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (thumb)—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 6

against the posted 11.5

CLE

at DEN

at CIN

PHI

HOU

15.1vs IND

Cleared 11.5Under 11.5Nuvela projection this week

Explore line11.5

Consensus line: 11.5; yards
Nuvela projection: 15.1; +3.6 on the line
Above the line: 4 of 6; 67% of the sample
vs closing lines: 2 of 3; each week's own close
Median: 16; regular season
Average: 19.5; +8.0 on the line

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	42	67%2/3	67%2/3
Last 5	12	60%3/5	67%2/3
Season	16	67%4/6	67%2/3
Last season	—	——	——

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

6 of 6 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 6; of 6
Average: 19.5; yards
Median: 16; yards
Above 11.5: 4 of 6; 67% of the sample
vs the full 6: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs CLE	20	—	—
Week 2	@ DEN	0	—	—
Week 3	vs NE	12	—	—
Week 4	@ CIN	42	9.5	+32.5
Week 5	vs PHI	43	10.5	+32.5
Week 6	vs HOU	0	15.5	−15.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

6 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 6	vs HOU	0	0	0	—	—	0
Wk 5	vs PHI	6	3	43	32	4.5	0
Wk 4	@ CIN	2	2	42	29	—	0
Wk 3	vs NE	2	1	12	12	—	1
Wk 2	@ DEN	0	0	0	—	—	0
Wk 1	vs CLE	2	2	20	16	—	1

Comparable players vs Indianapolis

11 of 20

wide receivers went under their line vs Indianapolis

Cameron this weekLine11.5Nuvela projection15.1

Jauan JenningsMIN · Week 7Line 7.534Rec ydsOver 7.5Over+26.5
Jordan AddisonMIN · Week 7Line 38.520Rec ydsUnder 38.5Under−18.5
Justin JeffersonMIN · Week 7Line 72.544Rec ydsUnder 72.5Under−28.5
Calvin RidleyTEN · Week 6Line 13.50Rec ydsUnder 13.5Under−13.5
Carnell TateTEN · Week 6Line 49.570Rec ydsOver 49.5Over+20.5
Elic AyomanorTEN · Week 6Line 14.53Rec ydsUnder 14.5Under−11.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Week 6Line 40.522Rec ydsUnder 40.5Under−18.5
DK MetcalfPIT · Week 5Line 51.512Rec ydsUnder 51.5Under−39.5
Germie BernardPIT · Week 5Line 19.580Rec ydsOver 19.5Over+60.5
Antonio WilliamsWAS · Week 4Line 29.521Rec ydsUnder 29.5Under−8.5
Dyami BrownWAS · Week 4Line 11.565Rec ydsOver 11.5Over+53.5
Stefon DiggsWAS · Week 4Line 56.535Rec ydsUnder 56.5Under−21.5
Treylon BurksWAS · Week 4Line 18.547Rec ydsOver 18.5Over+28.5
Jared WayneHOU · Week 3Line 15.520Rec ydsOver 15.5Over+4.5
Kayshon BoutteHOU · Week 3Line 37.521Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−16.5
Xavier HutchinsonHOU · Week 3Line 38.551Rec ydsOver 38.5Over+12.5
Rashee RiceKC · Week 2Line 48.583Rec ydsOver 48.5Over+34.5
Tyquan ThorntonKC · Week 2Line 16.586Rec ydsOver 16.5Over+69.5
Xavier WorthyKC · Week 2Line 37.525Rec ydsUnder 37.5Under−12.5
Rashod BatemanBAL · Week 1Line 26.50Rec ydsUnder 26.5Under−26.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Indianapolis Colts defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Indianapolis Colts actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	16.9	18.4	7th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	60%	62%	13th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	141.6	148.8	13th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8.4	8.1	20th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	12	11.1	25th of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	4.5	4.3	20th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	14%	11%	29th of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	17.8	21st of 32
RB	22	18th of 32
WRhis position	29	7th of 32
TE	13.7	19th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Drake London2025 · Wk 10	104
Jakobi Meyers2025 · Wk 17	39
Justin Jefferson2026 · Wk 7	44
Germie Bernard2026 · Wk 5	80
DK Metcalf2026 · Wk 5	12

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 46.5; combined
JAX implied total: 28.25; favored
IND implied total: 18.25; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 32.3s; seconds / play
Wind: 9 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 76°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 59.2; 6-game avg
Dropbacks: 33.1; 56% pass
Red-zone trips: 3.2; 6-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: −3.7; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share34%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %—

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share7%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share4%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share12%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g2

Targets per game

Yards / route run2.2

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT4.9

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: None reported
Game status: No designation
Snap share, last game: 51%
Games missed this season: 0

If Cameron sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · 36% of the snaps

Where his work goes

No teammate stands out to take his work.

Only 1 game without him, too few to measure, so this split is our estimate

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

5 posted · 3 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	11.5	15.1Nuvela projection	+3.6	3 of 5	11.5	level
Receptions	1.5	1.5Nuvela projection	0.0	2 of 5	1.5	level
Anytime TD	19%	Market only	—	1 of 5	20%	−1%
1st TD	5%	Market only	—	1 of 5	5%	level
Last TD	4%	Market only	—	0 of 5	4%	level
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

net 0 (held at 11.5)

Fri 11:01 AM11.5opened

Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate. Read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

Receiving Yards

1 books

Sportsbook	Line	Over	Under
FanDuel	11.5	−114	−114

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Josh Cameron's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Josh Cameron's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Josh Cameron's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Josh Cameron's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.