Where do Roman Wilson's prop lines come from?

From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Roman Wilson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.

How is Roman Wilson's projection made?

The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Roman Wilson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.

Is this betting advice?

No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers#14

Roman Wilson

Roman Wilson (WR, PIT) props for Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns: lines post as books open. Season averages and hit rates on every market we track.

vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8IR

Line: —; Receiving Yards
Projection: —; No line is posted for this market this week.
Difference: —

Lines checked: Oct 30, 12:22 PM PT
Markets posted: 0 of 8
Projections updated: Oct 30, 1:30 PM PT

Highlights

No book has posted this line yet.Highlights appear when one does.

Injury report

Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.

Pittsburgh is without two other receivers, so more of the receiver targets go to Wilson. Across from him, Myles Harden (CB) is questionable, and nobody else who usually covers receivers is listed.

WilsonIR

Around himPittsburgh Steelers

3 of 21 touch Wilson

This week

QuestionableBen SkowronekWR · calfFrees targets at his spot

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRCole BurgessWRFrees targets at his spot
IRMichael PittmanWRFrees targets at his spot

Across from himCleveland Browns

4 of 30 touch Wilson

This week

QuestionableDaniel ThomasSAF · ankleDeep coverage
QuestionableMyles HardenCB · hamstringCovers receivers

Out long term · already in his recent games

IRDamarri MathisDBDeep coverage

Off the report this week

ClearedDenzel WardCB · was Q in Wk 7Back on the field

Full reportEvery name on both clubs’ lists2130Show

PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers

21 listed

Brandin EcholsCB · hamstringOut
Doneiko SlaughterDB · hamstringOut
Ben SkowronekWR · calfQuestionable
Cole BurgessWR · Not specifiedIR
Daequan HardyCB · Not specifiedIR
Derrick HarmonDT · Not specifiedIR
Donte KentCB · Not specifiedPUP
Gennings DunkerG · Not specifiedIR
Jack DriscollOT · Not specifiedIR
Logan LeeDT · Not specifiedIR
Michael PittmanWR · Not specifiedIR
Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · tricepsIR
DeShon ElliottSAF · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Jalen RamseyCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (wrist)—
Jamel DeanCB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Jaylen WarrenRB · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Keeanu BentonDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Pat FreiermuthTE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (calf)—
Rico DowdleRB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (knee)Cleared
Troy FautanuOT · Last listed Wk 2: Q (ankle)—
Yahya BlackDE · Last listed Wk 4: Q—

CLE · Cleveland Browns

30 listed

Dillon GabrielQBOut last week
Daniel ThomasSAF · ankleQuestionable
Myles HardenCB · hamstringQuestionable
Alex WrightDE · Not specifiedIR
Damarri MathisDB · Not specifiedIR
Edefuan UlofoshioLB · Not specifiedIR
Elijah ChatmanDT · Not specifiedIR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Not specifiedPUP
Joe RoyerTE · Not specifiedPUP
Kalia DavisDT · quadricepIR
Raheim SandersRB · Not specifiedIR
Teven JenkinsG · backIR
Bub MeansWRPractice squad
John Saunders Jr.SAFInactive
Audric EstiméRB · Last listed Wk 1: Out (thigh)—
Carsen RyanTE · Last listed Wk 5: Out (calf)—
Carson SchwesingerLB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Denzel WardCB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (hand)Cleared
Derek BarnettDE · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Dylan SampsonRB · Last listed Wk 6: Out (knee)—
Elgton JenkinsC · Last listed Wk 4: Out (concussion)—
Grant DelpitSAF · Last listed Wk 3: Q (shoulder)—
Mason GrahamDT · Last listed Wk 6: Q (knee, ankle)—
Mike Hall Jr.DT · Last listed Wk 7: Out (ankle)Cleared
Noah IgbinogheneCB · Last listed Wk 2: Q (hand)—
Parker BrailsfordC · Last listed Wk 1: Q (thumb)—
Quincy WilliamsLB · Last listed Wk 7: Q (neck)Cleared
Quinshon JudkinsRB · Last listed Wk 6: Q (ankle)—
Tylan WallaceWR · Last listed Wk 5: Out (knee)—
Tyson CampbellCB · Last listed Wk 3: Q—

Form

What he has done, game by game, against lines like this one.

In this groupForm vs line Distribution Splits Game log

Recent output relative to line

Full season · every game against the selected line.

Receiving Yards, last 5

against the posted line

ATL

at NE

CIN

at CLE

IND

Cleared the lineUnder the line

Consensus line: —; yards
Projection: —
Above the line: —
vs closing lines: 3 of 5; each week's own close
Median: 28; regular season
Average: 37.6

Distribution by time window

The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.

Windows

Window	Median	Above % · vs current line	Above % · vs closing line
Last 3	60	——	67%2/3
Last 5	28	——	60%3/5
Season	28	——	60%3/5
Last season	12	——	57%4/7

Custom splits

Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.

Cut the sample

5 of 5 games

Venue

Game state

Opponent defense

Games: 5; of 5
Average: 37.6; yards
Median: 28; yards
Above the line: —
vs the full 5: 0.0; yards

Sample under 8 games, so treat it as directional.

Week	Opponent	Receiving Yards	Line that week	Against it
Week 1	vs ATL	26	11.5	+14.5
Week 2	@ NE	28	32.5	−4.5
Week 3	vs CIN	60	22.5	+37.5
Week 4	@ CLE	74	61.5	+12.5
Week 5	vs IND	0	39.5	−39.5

Game log · season

Most recent first: his weekly output for this market.

Every game

5 played

Week	Opponent	Targets	Rec	Rec yds	Long	aDOT	TD
Wk 5	vs IND	1	0	0	—	—	0
Wk 4	@ CLE	6	3	74	49	20.7	1
Wk 3	vs CIN	6	3	60	38	14.5	1
Wk 2	@ NE	6	5	28	9	3.3	0
Wk 1	vs ATL	6	3	26	20	20	0

Comparable players vs Cleveland

9 of 14

wide receivers went over their line vs Cleveland

Carnell TateTEN · Week 7Line 52.569Rec ydsOver 52.5Over+16.5
Elic AyomanorTEN · Week 7Line 17.544Rec ydsOver 17.5Over+26.5
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · Week 7Line 34.57Rec ydsUnder 34.5Under−27.5
Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · Week 6Line 9.540Rec ydsOver 9.5Over+30.5
Zay FlowersBAL · Week 6Line 58.566Rec ydsOver 58.5Over+7.5
Garrett WilsonNYJ · Week 5Line 66.5104Rec ydsOver 66.5Over+37.5
Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · Week 5Line 22.516Rec ydsUnder 22.5Under−6.5
DK MetcalfPIT · Week 4Line 45.5115Rec ydsOver 45.5Over+69.5
Michael PittmanPIT · Week 4Line 33.515Rec ydsUnder 33.5Under−18.5
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · Week 3Line 62.517Rec ydsUnder 62.5Under−45.5
Chris Godwin Jr.TB · Week 2Line 37.546Rec ydsOver 37.5Over+8.5
Emeka EgbukaTB · Week 2Line 52.516Rec ydsUnder 52.5Under−36.5
Jakobi MeyersJAX · Week 1Line 37.540Rec ydsOver 37.5Over+2.5
Parker WashingtonJAX · Week 1Line 53.583Rec ydsOver 53.5Over+29.5

Matchup

The defense he faces and the game around him.

In this groupOpponent Similar players Game context

Opponent defense

How Cleveland Browns defends each position (fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest) and what comparable roles have done against them.

How this defense handles receivers

What Cleveland Browns actually allows to WRs, against the rest of the league. Rank 1 = toughest draw.

Measure	Allowed	League avg	Rank
Targets allowedTo this position, per game: the volume a receptions line rests on.	18.9	18.4	19th of 32
Catch rate allowedReceptions per target.	58%	62%	6th of 32
Receiving yards allowedTo this position.	150.3	148.8	20th of 32
Yards per target allowedVolume-independent efficiency conceded to this position.	8	8.1	14th of 32
Target depth allowedAverage air yards per target: how far downfield this defence lets the ball go.	13.8	11.1	31st of 32
Yards after catch allowedPer reception: tackling and pursuit, the other half of a receiving line.	3.8	4.3	11th of 32
Deep attempts allowedShare of throws against this defence travelling 20+ air yards.	16%	11%	32nd of 32

By position

fantasy points allowed

Position	FP allowed / g	Rank1 = toughest
QB	14.7	8th of 32
RB	19.4	8th of 32
WRhis position	31.8	19th of 32
TE	13.6	18th of 32

Similar players

most recent vs this defense

Player	Rec yds
Ja'Marr Chase2025 · Wk 18	96
Justin Jefferson2025 · Wk 5	123
DK Metcalf2026 · Wk 4	115
Tetairoa McMillan2026 · Wk 3	17
Tre Tucker2025 · Wk 12	28

Game context

The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.

Game total: 39.5; combined
PIT implied total: 21.5; favored
CLE implied total: 18; underdog
Projected script: Neutral/Lead; favored
Pace: 30.2s; seconds / play
Wind: 3 mph; Clouds
Conditions: 66°F; outdoor · 0% precip

What the game projects

volume, not rates

Offensive play count: 62.3; 7-game avg
Dropbacks: 41.2; 66% pass
His receptions: 2.8; projected this game
Red-zone trips: 2.9; 7-game avg
Pass rate ± exp: +2.9; PROE

A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on: the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.

Role

How much of the offense runs through him, and who is in or out around him.

In this groupUsage Availability Injuries

Usage & opportunity

Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.

Share of the offence

season to date

Snap share47%

Of the offence's snaps

Route %40%

Of the team's dropbacks

Target share14%

Of all his team's targets

Air-yards share21%

Of the team's intended air yards

RZ target share7%

Inside the opponent's 20

Targets / g5

Targets per game

Yards / route run1.8

Receiving yards per route run

aDOT15.2

Average depth of target, in yards

Availability

Practice participation through the week.

His practice week

Not reported

Injury: Not Specified
Game status: Ir
Snap share, last game: 33%
Games missed this season: 2

If Wilson sits

If a receiver sits, the player who replaces him gets the routes, but the second receiver and the tight end gain most of the targets.

Next up

Ben SkowronekWR · 10% of the snaps

Where his work goes

Germie BernardWR+3.5targets
DK MetcalfWR+3.1targets
Rico DowdleRB+1.5targets
Darnell WashingtonTE+0.3targets

Based on 2 games without him

Market

Every line posted for him, how it moved, and what each book charges.

In this groupMarkets Odds

All player props

Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.

Last five games against the line each of those games closed at. Filled is over, pale is under.

Every market compared

0 posted · 8 waiting on a book

Market	Line	Projection	Diff	Cleared L5	Opened	Since open
Receiving Yards	No line posted yet
Receptions	No line posted yet
Anytime TD	No line posted yet
Longest Reception	No line posted yet
1st TD	No line posted yet
2+ TDs	No line posted yet
Last TD	No line posted yet
Rush + Rec Yards	No line posted yet

What these figures mean

Cleared L5: How many of his last 5 games went over this line. It counts overs only.
Since open: How far the consensus line has moved since books first posted it this week.

How the line moved

No line has been posted for this market yet, so there is nothing to track. The open, every move and the reason for it will appear here once the market opens.

Moves with this

same game · role level

How the WR1's receiving tends to move with each teammate role, across the league.

The QB's passing yardsmove together · 760 games+0.6
The WR2's receiving yardsmove loosely together · 760 games+0.2
The RB1's rushing yardsroughly independent · 760 games0.0
The TE1's receiving yardsroughly independent · 758 games0.0

A role-level tendency across the league: a general pattern for this role, not a measured link between these two specific players.

Prop odds

Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.

No sportsbook lines posted for this market yet.

Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.

About these numbers

Where the lines and the projection come from. The long version is on the methodology page.

Where do Roman Wilson's prop lines come from?: From The Odds API, which aggregates licensed US sportsbooks. Each of Roman Wilson's markets shows the consensus line and, book by book, the Over and Under price, plus how far the line has moved since the books first posted it. Nuvela is not a sportsbook and takes no wagers.
How is Roman Wilson's projection made?: The projection is the expected number for that stat this week, built from Roman Wilson's recent usage and output, the role on the team, the injury report and the game ahead. The label beside each line names the source of its projection, Nuvela or Tank01. A player ruled out gets no projection.
Is this betting advice?: No. This page is research: the line, the projection and the record behind each, laid side by side. The decision is yours. Nuvela takes no wagers, and the page is for adults of legal age in their state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER and ncpgambling.org.